TFH01: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES PROPOSE JOINT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 000904

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HO
SUBJECT: TFH01: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES PROPOSE JOINT
MEETING WITH PRESIDENT ARIAS

Classified By: AMBASSADOR HUGO LLORENS FOR REASONS 1.4 (B/D)



1. (C) Summary. The Ambassador urged, in a September 8
dinner at his residence, presidential candidates Elvin
Santos, Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo, and Bernard Martinez and
presidential designate Adela Echeverria, to tell de facto
regime leader Roberto Micheletti that for the good of
Honduras he needs to sign the San Jose Accord now. The
candidates expressed concern that a restored President Manuel
"Mel" Zelaya would not allow elections to be held. The
candidates agreed that it would be advisable for the
presidential candidates as a group to meet with Costa Rican
President Oscar Arias to discuss the way to achieve the San
Jose Accord and the importance of ensuring that elections
take place. The Ambassador later passed their request to
President Arias, who agreed to meet them on September 16.
The candidates noted that Honduras' religious institutions
are implacably opposed to President Zelaya's return. The
Ambassador agreed to engage with the country's religious
leaders in the coming days on this issue. End Summary.

Ambassador Meets Presidential Candidates
--------------


2. (C) The Ambassador met on September 8 with three of the
four presidential candidates: Elvin Santos of the Liberal
Party, Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo of the National Party, and
Bernard Martinez of the Innovation and Unity Party (PINU),as
well as with Adela Echeverria, a presidential designee of
Felicito Avila of the Christian Democratic Party (Note: Avila
could not attend the gathering due to a previous engagement.
End Note.) Neither of the two leftist presidential
candidates, Cesar Ham Pena of the Democratic Unification
Party or independent candidate Carlos H. Reyes were able to
attend. The DCM and the Political Counselor also attended
the meeting.


3. (C) The Ambassador stated that the United States supports
the peaceful restoration of democratic and constitutional
order in Honduras. He told the candidates that they embody
Honduras' political future and asked them to collectively
urge de facto regime leader Roberto Micheletti to sign the
San Jose Accord now. The Ambassador said U.S. patience has
grown thin and that the U.S. is coming to the conclusion the
de facto regime is mocking the international community by
refusing to negotiate in good faith and by attempting to run
out the clock on Zelaya. The Ambassador added that the de
facto regime is isolated in the international community. He
noted that the U.S. recognizes the complicated nature of the
actions that led to the June 28 coup d'etat, which is why it
supported the San Jose approach of a negotiated return of
Zelaya.

Candidates' Analyses
--------------


4. (C) Elvin Santos said he was open to any measure that
would bring about a resolution to the crisis. He noted that
the status quo was not beneficial to his political party.
(Note: Santos was the leading candidate with a comfortable
two digit margin in polls conducted before June 28. The
split in the Liberal Party caused by the coup has put him now
far behind Lobo. End Note.) Santos said the San Jose Accord
can serve as the mechanism to resolve the crisis, but that
its provisions were not flexible enough. Santos expressed
concern about the actions a restored President Zelaya might
pursue, including against the candidates. He added that it
would be important to identify a legal way to circumscribe a
restored Zelaya. Santos said pro-Zelaya forces were planning
to take actions in the next two weeks to disrupt the
electoral process. He said the elections were in danger,
adding that he believed the candidates' lives were also in
danger.


5. (C) Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo, the current front runner in the
polls, said it was critical that the election takes place,
adding that President Zelaya does not want them to be held.
He suggested restoring constitutional order by having Zelaya
return to Honduras after the election. Lobo echoed Santos'
reservations about the flexibility of the San Jose Accord.

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6. (C) Bernard Martinez said he does not care who wins the
election as long as it is held. He said that the San Jose
Accord was a well formulated document, but that the sticking
point was the return of President Zelaya. Martinez expressed
concern about the actions that Zelaya could take if he was
reinstated. Martinez said the armed forces told him on
September 8 that a risk exists that one of the presidential
candidates would be assassinated.


7. (C) Adela Echeverria, who said she was expressing the
views held by her party's presidential candidate, Felicito
Avila, acknowledged that it was a mistake to forcibly remove
President Zelaya from the country since no Honduran citizen
can be expelled. However, she added that the Christian
Democratic Party believed a constitutional succession did
occur in Honduras. She said Micheletti was bringing
stability to the country and would guarantee that transparent
elections take place. She argued that the fact that Zelaya
was democratically elected did not mean that the country had
to accept the flawed actions he took while in office. She
asked rhetorically whether it was clear how many Hondurans
supported the return of President Zelaya and whether they
were a significant percentage of the population. (Note:
Reliable polls show that 40 percent of Hondurans support the
return of Zelaya. End note.)

Proposal for the Way Ahead
--------------


8. (C) Santos suggested that the presidential candidates
collectively meet with Costa Rican President Oscar Arias to
discuss the San Jose Accord as well as the importance of
ensuring that the election takes place. Lobo and Martinez
agreed. Echeverria said she could agree on behalf of Avila.
Martinez noted it would be better if they were joined by the
two candidates not at the meeting with the Ambassador: Cesar
Ham Pena and Carlos H. Reyes. The Ambassador said he would
pass on their request to President Arias. (Arias has agreed
to meet with them on September 16.) The Ambassador agreed to
contact Ham Pena and Reyes to provide a readout of the
meeting and to ask them to join the other candidates in a
meeting with President Arias.


9. (C) Lobo said the country's religious institutions, both
the evangelical churches and the Roman Catholic hierarchy (in
particular the Archbishop of Tegucigalpa, Cardinal Oscar
Andres Rodriguez) are vehemently opposed to the return of
President Zelaya. The Ambassador agreed to once again engage
with them, but noted that the Cardinal would not return to
Honduras until after September 16 and that time to find a
solution to the crisis was fast running out.


10. (C) Comment: The offer by the candidates to meet with
Arias is a positive one. The candidates need to hear
directly from Arias his vision forward; our hope is that they
will carry this vision back with them to Honduras and press
Micheletti to sign the San Jose Accord. The fact that the
church's number two, Bishop Juan Jose Pineda, is now an
advocate of San Jose may provide us with an opening with the
church as the Bishop has influence over the Cardinal.


LLORENS