TFH01: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES PROPOSE JOINT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 000904 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HO SUBJECT: TFH01: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES PROPOSE JOINT MEETING WITH PRESIDENT ARIAS Classified By: AMBASSADOR HUGO LLORENS FOR REASONS 1.4 (B/D) ¶1. (C) Summary. The Ambassador urged, in a September 8 dinner at his residence, presidential candidates Elvin Santos, Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo, and Bernard Martinez and presidential designate Adela Echeverria, to tell de facto regime leader Roberto Micheletti that for the good of Honduras he needs to sign the San Jose Accord now. The candidates expressed concern that a restored President Manuel "Mel" Zelaya would not allow elections to be held. The candidates agreed that it would be advisable for the presidential candidates as a group to meet with Costa Rican President Oscar Arias to discuss the way to achieve the San Jose Accord and the importance of ensuring that elections take place. The Ambassador later passed their request to President Arias, who agreed to meet them on September 16. The candidates noted that Honduras' religious institutions are implacably opposed to President Zelaya's return. The Ambassador agreed to engage with the country's religious leaders in the coming days on this issue. End Summary. Ambassador Meets Presidential Candidates -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met on September 8 with three of the four presidential candidates: Elvin Santos of the Liberal Party, Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo of the National Party, and Bernard Martinez of the Innovation and Unity Party (PINU),as well as with Adela Echeverria, a presidential designee of Felicito Avila of the Christian Democratic Party (Note: Avila could not attend the gathering due to a previous engagement. End Note.) Neither of the two leftist presidential candidates, Cesar Ham Pena of the Democratic Unification Party or independent candidate Carlos H. Reyes were able to attend. The DCM and the Political Counselor also attended the meeting. ¶3. (C) The Ambassador stated that the United States supports the peaceful restoration of democratic and constitutional order in Honduras. He told the candidates that they embody Honduras' political future and asked them to collectively urge de facto regime leader Roberto Micheletti to sign the San Jose Accord now. The Ambassador said U.S. patience has grown thin and that the U.S. is coming to the conclusion the de facto regime is mocking the international community by refusing to negotiate in good faith and by attempting to run out the clock on Zelaya. The Ambassador added that the de facto regime is isolated in the international community. He noted that the U.S. recognizes the complicated nature of the actions that led to the June 28 coup d'etat, which is why it supported the San Jose approach of a negotiated return of Zelaya. Candidates' Analyses -------------- ¶4. (C) Elvin Santos said he was open to any measure that would bring about a resolution to the crisis. He noted that the status quo was not beneficial to his political party. (Note: Santos was the leading candidate with a comfortable two digit margin in polls conducted before June 28. The split in the Liberal Party caused by the coup has put him now far behind Lobo. End Note.) Santos said the San Jose Accord can serve as the mechanism to resolve the crisis, but that its provisions were not flexible enough. Santos expressed concern about the actions a restored President Zelaya might pursue, including against the candidates. He added that it would be important to identify a legal way to circumscribe a restored Zelaya. Santos said pro-Zelaya forces were planning to take actions in the next two weeks to disrupt the electoral process. He said the elections were in danger, adding that he believed the candidates' lives were also in danger. ¶5. (C) Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo, the current front runner in the polls, said it was critical that the election takes place, adding that President Zelaya does not want them to be held. He suggested restoring constitutional order by having Zelaya return to Honduras after the election. Lobo echoed Santos' reservations about the flexibility of the San Jose Accord. TEGUCIGALP 00000904 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Bernard Martinez said he does not care who wins the election as long as it is held. He said that the San Jose Accord was a well formulated document, but that the sticking point was the return of President Zelaya. Martinez expressed concern about the actions that Zelaya could take if he was reinstated. Martinez said the armed forces told him on September 8 that a risk exists that one of the presidential candidates would be assassinated. ¶7. (C) Adela Echeverria, who said she was expressing the views held by her party's presidential candidate, Felicito Avila, acknowledged that it was a mistake to forcibly remove President Zelaya from the country since no Honduran citizen can be expelled. However, she added that the Christian Democratic Party believed a constitutional succession did occur in Honduras. She said Micheletti was bringing stability to the country and would guarantee that transparent elections take place. She argued that the fact that Zelaya was democratically elected did not mean that the country had to accept the flawed actions he took while in office. She asked rhetorically whether it was clear how many Hondurans supported the return of President Zelaya and whether they were a significant percentage of the population. (Note: Reliable polls show that 40 percent of Hondurans support the return of Zelaya. End note.) Proposal for the Way Ahead -------------- ¶8. (C) Santos suggested that the presidential candidates collectively meet with Costa Rican President Oscar Arias to discuss the San Jose Accord as well as the importance of ensuring that the election takes place. Lobo and Martinez agreed. Echeverria said she could agree on behalf of Avila. Martinez noted it would be better if they were joined by the two candidates not at the meeting with the Ambassador: Cesar Ham Pena and Carlos H. Reyes. The Ambassador said he would pass on their request to President Arias. (Arias has agreed to meet with them on September 16.) The Ambassador agreed to contact Ham Pena and Reyes to provide a readout of the meeting and to ask them to join the other candidates in a meeting with President Arias. ¶9. (C) Lobo said the country's religious institutions, both the evangelical churches and the Roman Catholic hierarchy (in particular the Archbishop of Tegucigalpa, Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodriguez) are vehemently opposed to the return of President Zelaya. The Ambassador agreed to once again engage with them, but noted that the Cardinal would not return to Honduras until after September 16 and that time to find a solution to the crisis was fast running out. ¶10. (C) Comment: The offer by the candidates to meet with Arias is a positive one. The candidates need to hear directly from Arias his vision forward; our hope is that they will carry this vision back with them to Honduras and press Micheletti to sign the San Jose Accord. The fact that the church's number two, Bishop Juan Jose Pineda, is now an advocate of San Jose may provide us with an opening with the church as the Bishop has influence over the Cardinal. LLORENS