TFHO1: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE LOBO SAYS ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 000884 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HO SUBJECT: TFHO1: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE LOBO SAYS ELECTION CRITICAL AND RESOLUTION TO CRISIS CAN FOLLOW REF: TEGUCIGALPA 870 Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens for reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary. National Party presidential candidate Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo told the Ambassador on September 2 that he is concerned that forcing the return of President Manuel "Mel" Zelaya now entails the risk that elections will not be held. Lobo believes the period following the election may be more propitious for finding a solution that restores constitutional order to the country. Lobo, who is the current front runner in the polls, told Ambassador Llorens that if he is elected President he will insist on receiving the presidential sash at his inauguration from President Zelaya and not from de facto regime head Roberto Micheletti. The Ambassador urged him to press the Micheletti regime to go to San Jose and sign the Arias proposal. End summary. ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met on September 2 with National Party presidential candidate Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo. Ambassador told Lobo that the San Jose Accord is the best solution to Honduras' political crisis. He noted that many in the international community, including the U.S., are coming to the conclusion that Micheletti regime officials are not negotiating in good faith and are attempting to run out the clock on Zelaya. The Ambassador added that U.S. patience is running thin and that he expects additional sanctions to be adopted by the U.S. and other members of the democratic community if the San Jose Accord is not signed. The Ambassador informed Lobo that Costa Rican President Arias is open to putting in the Accord guarantees regarding President Zelaya's compliance with the Accord, assuming these proposals are serious. The Ambassador said that the legitimacy of the Honduran elections required the signing of the San Jose Accord and the full restoration of democracy. Must Restore Constitutional Order, But Maybe Later -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Lobo told the Ambassador that he agrees with the U.S. and the international community that it is essential to restore constitutional order in Honduras. He said he understands that there will not be peace in Honduras without the return of President Zelaya. However, he added that he believes President Zelaya did not want elections to occur. Lobo expressed concern that forcing a solution now could mean there will not be elections. Lobo urged the international community not to boycott the election. ¶4. (C) Lobo believes a solution to the crisis that restores constitutional order is still possible after the election when he feels the atmosphere in the country will be less tense. Lobo said a President-elect will have power and influence. He said that if he is elected President he will ensure the return of President Zelaya to the country and will insist on receiving the presidential sash at his inauguration from President Zelaya and not from Micheletti. Lobo also said that, as President, he will have a national unity government that includes other political parties. Presidential Front Runner -------------- ¶5. (C) Lobo is benefiting from the fracturing of the Liberal Party brought about by the nation's crisis. According to Lobo, polls indicate that he enjoys 41 percent support nationally while Liberal Party candidate Elvin Santos (the front runner before the coup) is tied at 14 percent with left wing independent candidate Carlos H. Reyes. Lobo said that polls taken in Tegucigalpa gave him the lead with 43 percent while Reyes has 26 percent and Santos trails with 10 percent. ¶6. (C) Comment. The June 28 coup has split the Liberal party and severely damaged Santos' candidacy. Lobo has replaced him as frontrunner and is likely to win in November if Zelaya does not return to the country and the Liberal party remains split. It is in his interest, therefore, to support the status quo, at least through the election, even though he TEGUCIGALP 00000884 002 OF 002 understands the damage the coup has done to Honduran democracy. Having Zelaya return in some form after the election would allow him to benefit on election day from a split opposition, but return legitimacy to Honduras before he took office. The problem with this strategy is that many governments will question the legitimacy of an election held by the de facto regime. HENSHAW