TFH01: HOW THE COUP IS SEEN OUTSIDE THE CAPITAL,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 000806 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM EAID HO SUBJECT: TFH01: HOW THE COUP IS SEEN OUTSIDE THE CAPITAL, PART TWO: THE COMAYAGUA VALLEY AND LA PAZ REF: TEGUCIGALPA 799 Classified By: Charge d'affaires Simon Henshaw, reasons 1.4 (d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Poloff and Econoff visited the city of Comayagua, Comayagua Department and the towns of Cane and Tutule in La Paz Department to gauge the political and economic effects of the current political crisis outside the capital. Emboffs spoke with agricultural producers and exporters, as well as two mayors. While most interlocutors initially insisted the crisis was not high on their list of priorities, once conversations got going, passions came out. Opinions spanned the full range of the conflict, but three common sentiments expressed were strong displeasure with national political leaders, deep regret over the harm done to the Honduran "family" as a result of political polarization and worry that potential sanctions would primarily harm small-scale enterprises and the poor. End summary. ¶2. (U) This cable represents part two in a series of reports on the opinions of Hondurans outside the political circles of the capital. Reftel reported from poor communities on the North Coast. This report is based on an August 20 visit to the south-central departments of Comayagua and La Paz, traditional Liberal Party strongholds. Economic issues will be reported septel. ¶3. (C) Emboffs met in Comayagua with a group of produce farmers, processors and exporters based in the Comayagua Valley. Running relatively small-scale operations, these were relatively middle-class farmers and entrepreneurs. They said the political crisis was not an issue of major concern for them, as it had not affected their sales significantly. But when asked specific questions about what they believed had happened on June 28 and what the way out of the crisis was, they became far more animated. One farmer had to pause to hold back tears as he expressed his view that June 28 was not a coup, but rather the actions of two branches of government to stop the executive from becoming a dictatorship. He was upset over the international reaction, and concerned that sanctions would do harm to Honduras in an already bad economic time. Others seconded his opinion, or expressed more tempered support for the removal of President Zelaya, as well as mistrust that Zelaya would abide by any agreement if returned to office. However, the group as a �0A;whole stated they were not supporters of de facto president Micheletti, whom they also viewed with mistrust. They were upset that the political leadership had allowed the situation to reach a crisis, and said Honduras had always been a "family," but the crisis had damaged this sense of family. They said the best prospect lay in successful elections in November, and hoped the international community would recognize the November elections. The group expressed concern for the potential harm they might face if sanctions were imposed by the United States and others. ¶4. (SBU) Poloff explained the USG position on the removal of the President as illegal, without regard for due process and contrary to the Honduran Constitution. He added that the economic harm to Honduras was already being done through the perception abroad of Honduras as politically unstable, and that was a key reason a resolution of the crisis before election season was important. Poloff also noted that the risk to successful elections was greater in the current state of political limbo, and said the goals of the San Jose Accord were to resolve the crisis peacefully, restore all the institutions of government, and provide safeguards that they be respected. The group expressed appreciation for the opportunity to hear the USG position for the first time, since the media had not laid it out. ¶5. (C) Emboffs then visited Mayor of Comayagua Carlos Miranda, a Liberal and head of the national association of mayors. Miranda expressed a pragmatic view of the situation, observing that the crisis had created a sense of fear and uncertainty over what might happen next. His own concern was over the effect of the crisis on longer-term political and economic stability. He noted in Comayagua, the people's hopes were in successful elections to bring the country back to stability, rather than ay mediated accord. Nonetheless, TEGUCIGALP 00000806 002 OF 002 he acknowledged that every day that passed without a resolution brought greater risk of violence and unrest. Miranda made it clear he was not a supporter of Zelaya or his movement, but expressed openness to a negotiated resolution to the crisis. ¶6. (C) In Cane, a town of approximately 7,000 in La Paz Department, Mayor Jose Rosario Tejeda hosted a meeting between Emboffs, local farmers and employees of a Millennium Challenge Account-funded agribusiness program, EDA. Mayor Rosario is highly active in improving conditions in his community, and the fruits of his labor were clear in the public facilities visible around town and in the way people expressed their trust in his leadership. While Cane is a very poor community, the town has a well-equipped public playground and a spacious, newly-refurbished central square where music performances take place every evening. Before his guests arrived, Rosario explained that the people in Cane were so upset with national politics that they he believed most people would not bother to vote in any but municipal-level elections in November. He said they were angry with all sides in the political crisis and had generally lost faith in the political leadership. ¶7. (C) Farmers and technicians participating in the meeting, repeated the mayor,s points. Two cattle farmers in particular spoke up about the political situation, one passionately decrying the coup and the rich oligarchs behind it. His colleague -- and clearly from the conversation, his close friend -- then stated June 28 was not a coup and that Zelaya was a would-be dictator who was stopped just in time. While the two took polar opposite positions on the events of June 28, they both firmly agreed they were disgusted with national politics and were unlikely to cast ballots for president or congress. They said that all national-level politicians were crooks. One of the EDA technicians employed the Honduran family theme, lamenting the polarized political environment that had led to Zelaya's removal. All offered strong praise for their mayor, however. ¶8. (C) Farmers in Tutule, a village located in the coffee-growing mountains of La Paz, expressed complete disgust for national politics, noting that both sides in the conflict were no different from each other, and the result of the political crisis had been the victimization of small farmers like themselves. They expressed neither support for Zelaya, nor for the coup, and noted their real concern was over potential sanctions by the United States. They too lamented the polarization of Honduran society, and said the conflict had only intensified their disdain for all politics. ¶9. (C) The Mayor of Tutule was unable to meet with Emboffs because he had been called before the Supreme Accounting Tribunal (TSC) for mismanagement of accounts. Though Tutule was approximately the same size as Cane, and the area produced more valuable crops, the streets were all dirt and the limited public space was in severe disrepair. ¶10. (C) Comment: The opinions expressed amongst the people in Comayagua and La Paz illustrated the damage the political crisis has done to public trust in political leadership. In Comayagua and Cane, two communities with active and engaged mayors, the people expressed dismay for national politics, and spoke as if their opinions mattered. The farmers from Tutule, however, expressed a total loss of faith in public institutions and the political process. Like the people of the North Coast (reftel),opinions were divided over the coup among these poor and middle-class campesinos. But all agreed the polarization of society and the risk of economic harm from sanctions were the real tragedies of the crisis. End comment. HENSHAW