Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TEGUCIGALPA730
2009-08-11 18:36:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Cable title:
TFHO1: AMERICASBAROMETER ARTICLE ON PREDICTING
how-toVZCZCXRO9881 RR RUEHAO RUEHCD RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHGR RUEHHA RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHMT RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHQU RUEHRD RUEHRG RUEHRS RUEHTM RUEHVC DE RUEHTG #0730 2231836 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 111836Z AUG 09 FM AMEMBASSY TEGUCIGALPA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0386 INFO RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHINGTON DC 1158 RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RUEAHND/CDRJTFB SOTO CANO HO RULGPSU/COMSOCSOUTH RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RUMIAAA/USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
UNCLAS TEGUCIGALPA 000730
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM HO
SUBJECT: TFHO1: AMERICASBAROMETER ARTICLE ON PREDICTING
COUPS
UNCLAS TEGUCIGALPA 000730
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM HO
SUBJECT: TFHO1: AMERICASBAROMETER ARTICLE ON PREDICTING
COUPS
1. (U) Summary: In the latest "AmericasBarometer Insights"
article, public opinion researchers Mitchell
Seligson and John Booth point to their conclusion in a book
published earlier this year that Honduras demonstrated
"greater risk for unrest, political turmoil, and support for
antidemocratic regimes than (did) other countries." Seligson
and Booth came to this conclusion based on an index of three
public opinion dimensions: support for democracy, support for
national institutions, and evaluation of the government's
economic performance. Based on these indicators, Booth and
Seligson project that Haiti, Guatemala, Peru, and Ecuador are
at most risk for political instability; Uruguay, Colombia,
Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic are least at risk.
End Summary.
2. (U) Background: Seligson directs the Latin American
Public Opinion Project (LAPOP),which includes the
AmericasBarometer, covering 24 countries and over 40,000
interviews in 2008. The project has received significant
funding from USAID, though it maintains editorial
independence. Seligson and Booth are authors of the article
"Predicting Coups? Democratic Vulnerabilities,
TheAmericasBarometer and the 2009 Honduran Crisis" and the
book "The Legitimacy Puzzle in Latin America: Democracy and
Political Support in Eight Nations" published earlier this
year. The article is part of the LAPOP "Insights" series and
can be found on www.AmericasBarometer.org. End Background.
3. (U) In the book published earlier this year, using data
from the 2004 AmericasBaromoter, Seligson and Booth found
that political legitimacy in Honduras was "very thin." They
had created an index based on the ratio of citizens that were
"triply dissatisfied" versus those who were "triply
satisfied" in three key dimensions: support for democracy,
support for national institutions, and evaluation of the
government's economic performance. The ratio in 2004 was
1.57 for Honduras; as compared with 0.08 for Costa Rica.
Seligson and Booth also note a separate indicator that 56.2
percent of the voting age population in Honduras would have
justified a coup in 2004; the highest of their eight-country
sample.
4. (U) Turning to 2008 data in their "Insights Article,
"Seligson and Booth show that in Honduras the ratio of
"triply dissatisfied" versus "triply satisfied" almost
quadrupled (from 1.57 in 2004 to 6.17 in 2008) over four
years. The results "clearly indicate a substantially
increased risk of instability." They note that the "index
does not predict the specific events that occurred in June
2009 in Honduras, but it does suggest a climate vulnerable to
democratic breakdown." The authors note that Haiti,
Guatemala, and Peru are also at increased risk based on this
indicator.
5. (SBU) Comment: Seligson and Booth provide one example of
many indicators that could be used to predict a "climate
vulnerable to democratic breakdown," and Embassy would
recommend caution in the use of this particular index. The
"triply satisfied" vs. "triply dissatisfied" ratio could
potentially be seen as arbitrary; other indicators (e.g.
analysis of separation/balance of power, overall economic
performance, public support for coups in general) may be more
useful. However, a more robust analysis of factors that
contribute to democratic vulnerabilities may prove helpful to
those working to enhance long-term democratic sustainability
in the region. End Comment.
LLORENS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM HO
SUBJECT: TFHO1: AMERICASBAROMETER ARTICLE ON PREDICTING
COUPS
1. (U) Summary: In the latest "AmericasBarometer Insights"
article, public opinion researchers Mitchell
Seligson and John Booth point to their conclusion in a book
published earlier this year that Honduras demonstrated
"greater risk for unrest, political turmoil, and support for
antidemocratic regimes than (did) other countries." Seligson
and Booth came to this conclusion based on an index of three
public opinion dimensions: support for democracy, support for
national institutions, and evaluation of the government's
economic performance. Based on these indicators, Booth and
Seligson project that Haiti, Guatemala, Peru, and Ecuador are
at most risk for political instability; Uruguay, Colombia,
Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic are least at risk.
End Summary.
2. (U) Background: Seligson directs the Latin American
Public Opinion Project (LAPOP),which includes the
AmericasBarometer, covering 24 countries and over 40,000
interviews in 2008. The project has received significant
funding from USAID, though it maintains editorial
independence. Seligson and Booth are authors of the article
"Predicting Coups? Democratic Vulnerabilities,
TheAmericasBarometer and the 2009 Honduran Crisis" and the
book "The Legitimacy Puzzle in Latin America: Democracy and
Political Support in Eight Nations" published earlier this
year. The article is part of the LAPOP "Insights" series and
can be found on www.AmericasBarometer.org. End Background.
3. (U) In the book published earlier this year, using data
from the 2004 AmericasBaromoter, Seligson and Booth found
that political legitimacy in Honduras was "very thin." They
had created an index based on the ratio of citizens that were
"triply dissatisfied" versus those who were "triply
satisfied" in three key dimensions: support for democracy,
support for national institutions, and evaluation of the
government's economic performance. The ratio in 2004 was
1.57 for Honduras; as compared with 0.08 for Costa Rica.
Seligson and Booth also note a separate indicator that 56.2
percent of the voting age population in Honduras would have
justified a coup in 2004; the highest of their eight-country
sample.
4. (U) Turning to 2008 data in their "Insights Article,
"Seligson and Booth show that in Honduras the ratio of
"triply dissatisfied" versus "triply satisfied" almost
quadrupled (from 1.57 in 2004 to 6.17 in 2008) over four
years. The results "clearly indicate a substantially
increased risk of instability." They note that the "index
does not predict the specific events that occurred in June
2009 in Honduras, but it does suggest a climate vulnerable to
democratic breakdown." The authors note that Haiti,
Guatemala, and Peru are also at increased risk based on this
indicator.
5. (SBU) Comment: Seligson and Booth provide one example of
many indicators that could be used to predict a "climate
vulnerable to democratic breakdown," and Embassy would
recommend caution in the use of this particular index. The
"triply satisfied" vs. "triply dissatisfied" ratio could
potentially be seen as arbitrary; other indicators (e.g.
analysis of separation/balance of power, overall economic
performance, public support for coups in general) may be more
useful. However, a more robust analysis of factors that
contribute to democratic vulnerabilities may prove helpful to
those working to enhance long-term democratic sustainability
in the region. End Comment.
LLORENS