TFH01: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH NATIONAL PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 000723

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM HO
SUBJECT: TFH01: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH NATIONAL PARTY
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE PEPE LOBO

Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens, reasons 1.4 (b & d).


1. (C) Summary: The Ambassador hosted an August 8 meeting
with National Party presidential nominee Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo
and other National Party leaders. Lobo expressed his support
for the San Jose Accord, noting private polling that showed
that more than 50 percent of the public now wants Zelaya to
return. He said that only 14 percent of the population now
supports Liberal Party candidate Elvin Santos, and 11 percent
supports a "third option," the radical pro-Zelaya candidate
Carlos H. Reyes. His analysis indicates a disturbing
political polarization in Honduras. The Honduran electorate
has always been split between Liberals and Nationals. The
growth of support for a third party candidate, if sustained,
may suggest a major change in voting patterns away from the
two traditional parties. End Summary.


2. (C) The Ambassador stated the U.S. position that the San
Jose Accord is the best manner to restore the democratic
order; Lobo agreed. The Ambassador emphasized the "no
contact" policy with the regime, the suspension of military
aid, and the "pause" in economic assistance. He noted that,
absent a political accord, relations would continue to be
very difficult for Honduras with the international community.
He pointed to the stance of Brazil, Argentina, and Spain,
which have announced they will not recognize elections held
by the de facto regime.


3. (C) The Ambassador briefed Lobo on the commission of OAS
foreign ministers that plan to visit Honduras this week. He
stated that it would be important to focus on the enforcement
mechanisms of the accord. Lobo agreed, noting that most
people still are afraid of Zelaya's intentions. He expressed
his belief that a serious enforcement mechanism, such as a
United Nations Chapter Six resolution, would show that the
international community is committed.


4. (C) Lobo said that he had seen recent polling that over
50 percent of the population now wanted President Zelaya to
return. He cited that this was an increase from a previous
Gallup poll that showed that 46 percent wanted Zelaya to
return, and 41 percent were against it. He noted that 62
percent of Liberals wanted Zelaya to return, and even 20
percent of National Party supporters. Ricardo Alvarez, Mayor
of Tegucigalpa, interjected that many of the Nationalists
wanted Zelaya to return so that he would "go to jail."


5. (C) Lobo noted that polls showed support for Elvin Santos
has fallen from 47 percent in April to 14 percent now. He
noted that his own public support had not risen, but what was
worrisome was that people were supporting a third candidate:
Carlos H. Reyes, a leftist independent presidential candidate
and pro-Zelaya protest organizer, with 11 percent support.


6. (C) While Lobo understood that this was a national
problem for Honduras, he stressed that the crisis was chiefly
a Liberal Party conflict. He said that Liberals Elvin
Santos, Mel Zelaya, and Roberto Micheletti should all have a
dialogue among themselves and find a path out of the crisis.


7. (C) Ricardo Alvarez said that the de facto regime was
acting like it was "business as usual." He added they are
addressing the budget, paying off debt, and paying salaries.
Alvarez predicted that this week he expected pro-Zelaya
protestors to attempt to commit acts of vandalism to give the
OAS foreign ministers a sense that the country is in chaos.



8. (C) Comment: Lobo and the National Party continue to
benefit politically from the fractures within the Liberal
Party that are at the core of the crisis. Lobo expressed his
support for the San Jose Accord, but he also may have been
giving us a message he thinks the United States wants to
hear. Though not as charismatic as Elvin Santos, Lobo and
his competent inner circle have a very good understanding of
polling, focus groups, and political trends. His analysis
indicates a disturbing political polarization in Honduras.

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The Honduran electorate has always been split between
Liberals and Nationals. The growth of support for a third
party candidate, if sustained, could indicate a historic
change. End Comment.
LLORENS