TFH01: HONDURAS COUP: POLITICAL WRAP-UP 08/03/09

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 000696 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM HO SUBJECT: TFH01: HONDURAS COUP: POLITICAL WRAP-UP 08/03/09 REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 692 ¶B. TEGUCIGALPA 683 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (U) This is another in a series of daily round-ups of political news in the aftermath of the June 28 forcible removal and exile of President Manuel Zelaya from Honduras. -------------- CONGRESS CONSIDERING POLITICAL AMNESTY -------------- ¶2. (U) The Congressional Commission is still analyzing the granting of political amnesty and the potential return of President Zelaya to Honduras. According to media reports, the Commission,s report is expected to be delivered today. ¶3. (SBU) Members of the negotiating commission for Micheletti (Ambassador Carlos Lopez Contreras, former Supreme Court president Vilma Morales and Christian Democrat consultant Arturo Corrales) will be at Congress today at 16:00 local (18:00 EDT) to present a report on the negotiations held in Costa Rica. The Ambassador met on August 1 with Morales and Corrales. Details of the meeting were reported in Ref A. -------------- MEETING WITH BUSINESS LEADERS -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The Ambassador and DCM met the evening of July 31 with senior business leaders, including Amilcar Bulnes, President of the country,s most powerful business association (COHEP),as well as senior leaders of the Tegucigalpa Chamber of Commerce, the Association of Banks and the Association of Industrialists. They discussed the Honduran situation, outlined U.S. policy towards Honduras, described our efforts to restore the democratic and constitutional order and our support for the Arias mediation. The business leaders were clearly seeking our guidance and vowed to take our message back to regime leaders, with whom they maintain close contact. They expressed support for the dialogue and the channel established by Arias. All said the Arias proposal on paper was a good and balanced agreement that took everyone,s interests into account; however, they continued to have doubts about the viability of Zelaya,s return and reiterated the deeply felt fear (conceding that it bordered on the irrational and pathological) that Zelaya would break the accords and seek vengeance against his political opponents. We attempted to allay their concerns but urged them to think constructively and to offer positive ideas to the regime on how to establish adequate monitoring and enforcement mechanisms of the Arias proposal. -------------- Supreme Court Communiqu/U.S. Intervention -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The Honduran Supreme Court issued a communiqu Friday night, which was hand delivered to the Ambassador at the Residence protesting the U.S. decision to revoke the &A8 visas of regime members. While recognizing the sovereign right of the U.S. to take decisions on visa and consular matters, the Court unanimously rejected the U.S. measure, specifically the revocation of Court Vice President Arita,s diplomatic visa, if it was taken with the purpose of pressuring Honduran authorities. The regime complemented the Supreme Court action by stating that it retained the right to revoke the diplomatic visas of U.S. diplomats in Tegucigalpa. Micheletti also personally criticized the Ambassador,s meeting with Zelaya in Managua &as an illegitimate intervention in the internal affairs of Honduras.8 -------------- Former President Carlos Flores -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Over breakfast on August 1, former President Carlos Flores and the Ambassador discussed the Honduran situation. He said he had been working behind the scenes to press the Micheletti regime to reverse or clarify yesterday,s public statement contradicting the New York Times article and insisting that President Zelaya would not be allowed to return. Flores said that Micheletti,s latest statement, which had just been published, was a positive step. Flores reported that the Micheletti officials were meeting at that TEGUCIGALP 00000696 002 OF 002 very moment to consider rejecting the political amnesty proposal of the Arias mediation agreement. Flores made several calls and urged them not to make this decision. Flores said that Micheletti was surrounded by hard line ideologues and sycophants who were advising him to hang tough and not agree to the Arias terms. The Ambassador and Flores agreed that advisor Arturo Corrales and former Supreme Court President Vilma Morales, both who serve on Micheletti,s commission to the Arias mediation, were the only enlightened players to who Micheletti might listen. Flores also agreed on the importance of an international mission to come to Honduras and engage the regime and seek to influence civil society leaders. -------------- President Arias -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The Ambassador spoke to President Oscar Arias August 1 and briefed him on the situation in Honduras. Arias remained concerned about the possibility that Micheletti and the Congress might reject the political amnesty proposal. He expressed the view that if the amnesty was formally rejected, his mediation effort would collapse. He again urged that a senior U.S. legislator (again suggesting Senator Chris Dodd) call regime Congress President Saavedra. The Ambassador briefed him on the progress we had made in shifting views here in Tegucigalpa with business, civil society, and religious and political leaders in support of a negotiated solution. However, the Ambassador conveyed the endemic fears here of Zelaya and the conventional wisdom that he would not comply with the agreements. This opened a thoughtful conversation on how the enforcement mechanisms of an agreement could be strengthened. Arias and the Ambassador agreed that some type of judicial review board or capability could be created or added to the verification commission. He said in addition to former presidents, we could possibly approach highly respected international judicial authorities (e.g., current/retired Supreme Court Justices) and constitutional experts to be involved in the monitoring process and ensure full compliance with the terms of an agreement. -------------- WHEREABOUTS -------------- ¶8. (SBU) A mission of foreign ministers, potentially including ministers from Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Guatemala, will visit Honduras this week. Former IDB President Enrique Iglesias, who was in Costa Rica this weekend meeting with President Arias, informed WHA that he will not/not accompany the mission. ¶9. (U) Over the weekend, President Zelaya remained in Ocotal, Nicaragua. He traveled Monday to Managua and plans to travel Tuesday to Mexico City to meet with President Calderon. ¶10. (U) De facto regime president Roberto Micheletti is inspecting damages to highways, bridges, and roads as a result of the various earthquakes that occurred in Honduras in May and June. LLORENS