TFH01: WHO'S WHO OF THE HONDURAN COUP

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000617 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR HO SUBJECT: TFH01: WHO'S WHO OF THE HONDURAN COUP REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 594 ¶B. TEGUCIGALPA 591 AND PREVIOUS ¶C. TEGUCIGALPA 587 ¶D. TEGUCIGALPA 580 ¶E. TEGUCIGALPA 578 ¶F. TEGUCIGALPA 574 Classified By: amb. Hugo Llorens, e.o. 12958 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: As the Zelaya and Micheletti teams prepare to engage for a second round of talks in Costa Rica July 18 on restoring the constitutional order in Honduras, the fate of any deal that may emerge from the talks will most likely be determined by a relatively small number of opinion-makers and power brokers in Honduras who are not part of either Zelaya's administration or Micheletti's de facto regime. This message profiles some of these figures and their potential roles in making or breaking a political agreement, using the color scheme laid out in ref B and previous. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Carlos Flores: President of Honduras 1998-2002 and elder statesman of the Liberal Party, Honduras's largest political party. Flores also publishes one of the country's major daily newspapers, "La Tribuna," which has been critical of Zelaya's presidency. Zelaya views him as a political rival and obstacle to his plans to transform the Liberal Party. Little happens in Honduran politics without Flores knowing about it. Still, he claims he had no advance knowledge of the June 28 coup, even though the decree and analysis that coup defenders cite as proof of Zelaya's intent to dissolve Congress and convene a constituent assembly following his constitutional reform opinion poll appeared the morning of the coup in "La Tribuna." Since the coup, Flores has quietly sought to promote dialogue among key players to resolve the political crisis. Since at it's heart the crisis is a feud within the Liberal Party, he is extremely well placed. His daughter, Lizzy Flores, is Vice President of Congress and rumored to have been uncomfortable with the way Zelaya's removal was rushed through Congress June 28. Hue: pastel pink Stature: high Influence: high Role: crucial ¶3. (C) Ricardo Maduro: Zelaya's immediate predecessor as President of Honduras (2002-2006) and elder statesman of the National Party. Maduro is well respected among the White Team and within the Honduran and international business community. Maduro has sworn to the Ambassador that he had no foreknowledge of the June 28 coup. However, most of his �0A;party strongly supported Zelaya's removal, more so than the ruling Liberal Party, which is split over the issue. But Maduro is a man of considerable intellect and strategic vision who can be persuaded that a political compromise that restores the consitutional order is in Honduras's, and therefore the National Party's, best interest. Hue: eggshell Stature: high Influence: high Role: potentially very helpful ¶4. (C) Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez: The Archbishop of Tegucigalpa has long been one of the most respected and beloved figures in Honduras, or at least he was until he publicly endorsed the coup and the Micheletti regime on live television July 4, causing him to be vilified by the Red Team. He has called for peace and reconciliation but also urged Zelaya to stay out of Honduras. In recent days, he has backed away somewhat from his earlier endorsement of the coup, we think under instructions from the Vatican. He told the Ambassador the evening of July 16 that he would support an agreement brokered that would allow President Zelaya to return to Honduras. His early support for the coup nonetheless undermined his credibility as a potential mediator. Still, his blessing for any agreement could sway significant numbers from both the Red and White camps. Hue: almond Stature: high (but falling among reds) Influence: high Role: Potentially important as a ratifier ¶5. (C) Elvin Santos: The Liberal Party presidential nominee, Santos has a strong personal political interest in finding a resolution to the current crisis (ref A). He enjoyed a 10-point lead in polls over National Party candidate Pepe Lobo shortly before the coup. The first post-coup poll showed him trailing Lobo by five points: 41-36 percent. He has made a series of televised messages appealing for peace, reconciliation and dialogue while being careful to neither condemn nor endorse the coup. As Zelaya's former vice president who resigned to run to succeed him while distancing himself from Zelaya politically, Santos's interests are best served by moving quickly past the current crisis and shifting the Honduran political discussion away from Zelaya and Micheletti and onto the campaign to succeed them. Hue: powder puff Stature: medium Influence: moderate Role: post-electoral hope ¶6. (C) Pepe Lobo: The National Party presidential nominee, Lobo has benefitted in the short term from the conflict within the Liberal Party. But his long term interests, as possibly the next president, require restoring legitimacy and removing Honduras from international pariah status. Like Santos, he has made televised messages calling for peace, reconciliation and dialogue. But he has been more supportive of the coup and the Micheletti regime. Hue: Lilac Stature: medium Influence: moderate Role: potential spoiler or redeemer ¶7. (C) Arturo Corrales: Although part of Micheletti's negotiating team in San Jose (ref F),Corrales has not taken a position within the new regime and has thus preserved his ability to act as the consumate bipartisan dealmaker. A former presidential candidate for the small, centrist Christian Democrat Party, Corrales is known as the "oracle" of Honduran politics for his shrewd instincts and predictive power. He is also considered by some to be one of the three most important power-brokers in Honduran politics, along with ormer presidents Carlos Flores and Rafael Callejas Hue: ivory-blush Stature: high Influence: igh Role: dealmaker ¶8. (C) Vilma Morales: Another member of Micheletti's negotiating team for the first round of talks in San Jose, Morales was Chief Justice of the Honduran Supreme Court 2002-2009. A National Party stalwart, she regularly feuded with Zelaya from the bench and has been one of the June 28 coup's most outspoken legal defenders. Although respected within Honduran legal circles, her legal judgment on the current crisis is clouded by her partisanship. Hue: snowblind Stature: high Influence: low-medium Role: not likely helpful ¶9. (C) Luis Rubi: As Attorney General, he appears to have been directly involved in the decision to remove Zelaya, has defended the legality of the action since and has used the legal apparatus under his control to stifle dissent and intimidate/persecute members of Zelaya's team. The Attorney General is appointed through a consultative process to a five-year term and may not be removed at the pleasure of the President. His continued tenure may therefore need to be part of the negotiation, with Whites desiring that he stay in place as a check on Zelaya and Zelaya demanding his resignation. Hue: sunbleached Stature: medium-high Influence: high Role: might have to go ¶10. (C) Jorge Rivera Aviles: The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, he told the Ambassador that he was not involved in the coup and was unwilling to swear-in Micheletti on June 28. Others say he was a key coup plotter. Either way, he has publicly defended the legality of the coup, but we understand some other justices on the court consider it was illegal (ref E). He is constitutionally third in line of succession to the Presidency. Hue: birch Stature: medium-high Influence: high Role: Could be key ¶11. (C) Edmundo Orellana: Former Foreign Minister then Defense Minister for Zelaya, resigned just before the coup when Zelaya fired defense chief Vasquez Velasquez for refusing to carry out the constitutional reform opinion poll in defiance of a court order. Also a Liberal Party member of Congress. Orellana is a lawyer and diplomat of center-left political views. He has been working behind the scenes with remnants of the depose Zelaya cabinet to seek a negotiated, conditional return of Zelaya to power. Hue: passionate pink Stature: medium Influence: moderate Role: potentially useful go-between ¶12. (C) Jose Azcona: Son of former President of the same name (1986-1990) Azcona is considered one of the rising generation of Liberal Party leaders and a possible future presidential candidate. He holds a second-tier leadership position in the Congress and is close to Micheletti. Nonetheless, he has expressed to us his disagreement with the coup and desire to help broker a deal on Zelaya's conditional return. But he has kept those views private so as not to burn his bridge with Micheletti. Hue: fuschia Stature: medium Influence: medium Role: behind-the-scenes voice of reason ¶13. (C) Jaime Rosenthal: One of Honduras's most prominent media and industrial tycoons, Rosenthal has been a long-time power broker and financial backer of the Liberal Party. His son Yani was Minister of the Presidency during the first half of Zelaya's term. His newspaper, "Tiempo," has been the most sympathetic to Zelaya of the four major Honduran dailies and the most critical of the coup since June 28. His television stations have also taken a moderate line since the coup and been more willing to air anti-coup viewpoints. Hue: peach Stature: medium-high Influence: high Role: Could be key to selling an agreement ¶14. (C) Jorge Canahuati: A rival/competitor of Rosenthal's, Canahuati's "El Heraldo" and "La Prensa" have been the most harshly anti-Zelaya and pro-coup. His publications frame the opinions of the National Party mainstream. Hue: lily white Stature: medium-high Influence: high Role: possible obstruction ¶15. (C) The "Turcos": Refers to the small industrial and financial elite, predominantly of Arab/Palestinian origin, who dominate the Honduran economy and have tremendous weight, usually exercised behind the scenes, on its politics. Prominent memberws include Miguel Facusse, his son-in-law Fredy Nasser, the Kafie Brothers and Camilo Atala. It is highly likely that at least some of them knew about the coup. These are the so-called "Power Groups" railed against by Zelaya and his leftist supporters. Hue: alabaster Stature: medium Influence: high Role: will need to be coopted into any deal ¶16. (C) Doris Gutierrez: A member of Congress from the leftist Democratic Unification (UD) Party, Gutierrez is a leading voice of the democratic left, with the stress on "democratic." She has attacked corruption in the Zelaya administration but also the coup that removed him. Hue: magenta Stature: low-medium Influence: low-medium Role: could bring some reds around to a deal ¶17. (C) Rafael Alegria: A militant advocate for small farmers (although disdained by many truly representative peasant organizations),Alegria is generally considered to be a Chavez proxy, if not actually on Chavez's payroll. He was constantly seen in Zelaya's presence in the final days before the coup, when Zelaya was threatening to push ahead with a constitutional reform opinion poll in defiance of a court order. Hue: blood red Stature: low Influence: low Role: obstruction ¶18. (C) Cesar Ham: Presidential candidate for the leftist UD party, he was closely associated with Zelaya's final push for a constitutional reform opinion poll in defiance of a court order. He and some others in his party are now openly calling for violent insurrection to bring Zelaya back. Hue: crimson Stature: low Influence: low-medium Role: potential wrecker LLORENS