TFH01: AMBASSADOR'S CONVERSATION WITH PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000616 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA A/S TOM SHANNON E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HO SUBJECT: TFH01: AMBASSADOR'S CONVERSATION WITH PRESIDENT ARIAS JULY 17 REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 516 ¶B. SECSTATE 69222 Classified By: Classified by Hugo Llorens for reasons 1.4 (b & d). ¶1. (C) President Arias called the Ambassador at approximately 2:30 pm our time. The Ambassador briefed him on a series of meetings that we have held in the past 30 hours in support of his mediation effort. The Ambassador discussed the productive sessions he had had with the business community, media owners, President Ricardo Maduro, Cardinal Rodriguez and President Flores. The Ambassador noted that President Flores had a draft of what could constitute a Micheletti proposal to submit at his mediation session in San Jose. He said Flores had discussed his proposal with Cardinal Rodriguez during a dinner at his Residence last night and that the proposal included the return of President Zelaya to Honduras. The Flores proposal had also been discussed at meetings the ambassador had held with Micheletti unofficial advisor and commission member, Arturo Corrales, Liberal Party candidate Elvin Santos, media owner Jorge Canahuati, and Flores himself. The Ambassador said we had also reached out to the Honduran military and pressed them to approach Micheletti and his senior officials to go to San Jose ready to reach an agreement. The Ambassador reported to Arias that the momentum was moving in his direction and that many of Honduras's senior leaders were becoming convinced that a negotiated solution under the Arias mediation was the way out. However, we were still not sure if Micheletti had come on aboard. ¶2. (C) Arias again appreciated the strong U.S. support. He said that he had spoken to President Zelaya who had told him that the mediation had to show concrete results by Saturday or Sunday. If not, Zelaya argued that his supporters would clamor for more radical action. Zelaya told him what he had mentioned to us several days ago which was that in the absence of an agreement, social sector leaders would boycott the elections and seek to convene a constituent assembly in September. Zelaya had also warned that Chavez was pushing for more aggressive action in the street that could result in violence. Arias said he would make a major effort to make substantive progress on Saturday and hoped that our common efforts these past few days would yield fruit. ¶3. (C) The Ambassador told Arias about local concerns that any deal reached be zealously enforced. The Ambassador suggested that he be ready to discuss not only the substance of an agreement but the international guarantees to ensure strict compliance. Arias agreed this was an important issue and he was thinking about proposing the creation of a monitoring committee, possibly run by the OAS or the UN, to ensure full compliance with the terms of the agreement. He said that if the OAS took the lead, he would propose that the U.S. be in some way involved on the ground. LLORENS