HONDURAN COUP: IS THERE A "PINK TEAM?"

S E C R E T TEGUCIGALPA 000591 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2039 TAGS: PGOV KDEM HO SUBJECT: HONDURAN COUP: IS THERE A "PINK TEAM?" REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 586 ¶B. TEGUCIGALPA 578 ¶C. TEGUCIGALPA 568 ¶D. TEGUCIGALPA 566 Classified By: amb. Hugo Llorens, e.o. 12958 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Refs C and D profiled the coalitions currently agitating for the return of President Zelaya (the "Red Team") and opposing his return (the "White Team"). This message explores whether there is any significant "pink" ground between these two camps that can help bridge the differences and facilitate a face-saving return to the constitutional order, consistent with USG policy goals. End Summary. -------------- Which One's Pink? -------------- ¶2. (U) A CID-Gallup poll published last week indicated that, while a plurality (41 percent) of Hondurans thought the June 28 coup removing President Manuel "Mel" Zelaya was "justified" and 28 percent thought it was not, nearly a third (31 percent) had no opinion. This middle third is either uninformed, indifferent or not persuaded by the arguments of either side. The poll did not ask the question of whether people wanted Zelaya back. ¶3. (C) Our outreach with a wide range of contacts over the past two weeks indicates that there is indeed significant "pink" ground between the red and white camps, and it seems to be growing. The main components of the Pink Team are: -- Those who opposed Zelaya but think the way he was removed was illegal and wrong; -- Those who supported Zelaya but agree that he abused his authority, probably broke the law and should face justice, although with due process; -- Those who are coming to realize that the consequences of continued international pariah status and social unrest will be unacceptable, and therefore a deal needs to be struck. ¶4. (C) The pink team includes some notable political figures, plus some intellectuals, the politically moderate/indifferent and rank-and-file workers (blue and white collar, public and private sector) who are uncomfortable with the extreme positions being adopted by their "leaders." -------------- Where Are the Statesmen? -------------- ¶5. (C) We will report septel on where Honduras's most prominent public figures stand on the current crisis and how helpful they are likely to be in finding a solution. However, a key figure, former President Carlos Flores, publisher of one of the country's major dailies and still the kingmaker of Zelaya's Liberal Party, is quietly positioning himself in pink territory. Other prominent political elder statesmen whose hands have not been sullied by the coup could also potentially play important roles. -------------- The Vote in Congress was not Unanimous! -------------- ¶6. (C) As we have reported previously, contrary to what is being parlayed by coup defenders/apologists in Washington and in the international media, the vote in Congress June 28 to accept Zelaya's "resignation" and install Micheletti as president was not unanimous. In fact, there was no recorded vote, or even a request for "yeas" and "nays." Some media are acknowledging that the five deputies from the leftist Democratic Unification Party, who boycotted the proceeding, did not vote for the transition of power and concluding the vote was therefore 123-5. However, Embassy has learned that many deputies were not present, and some who were present were opposed to what was happening but were silenced. Several Liberal Party members, including some holding leadership positions, have approached the Embassy to describe intimidation and irregularities in the June 28 proceedings, some alleging there was no quorum present, which would invalidate the actions taken. Some have expressed their views publicly and reported subsequently that they were the object of threats and police intimidation. Several plan to travel to Washington this week to make their views known there. ¶7. (S) Dissident deputies who have approached us claim to have the support of at least 17 members, including two offspring of former Honduran presidents: Lizzy Flores, who is Vice President of the Congress, and Jose Azcona, who chairs the powerful budget committee. Neither of them has come forward publicly, but Azcona approached us in confidence shortly after the coup offering to be a go-between with the new regime to seek a conditional return of Zelaya. Others who have come out publicly were also formerly close to Micheletti's Congressional leadership. Some are Zelaya supporters. Others opposed many Zelaya policies and felt he probably violated the constitution but disagree more strongly with the way he was removed. -------------- The Minor Parties -------------- ¶8. (U) Some prominent members of the small but intellectually influential centrist parties -- the Christian Democrats and the social-democrat PINU -- have staked out moderate positions, opposing the coup and calling for national reconciliation. In particular, former CD member of Congress Efrain Diaz Arrivillaga has appeared in both print media and on television over the past week proposing creative solutions to the current impasse while acknowledging the illegality of both the coup and of Zelaya's actions that precipitated it. He quoted Abraham Lincoln and advised that all sides might have to swallow some bitter medicine to bring Honduras back together. Wilfredo Mendez, former executive secretary of PINU, has struck a similar line, in defiance of his party's leadership but with apparent support of much of its rank and file. -------------- Followers who Refuse to be Led -------------- ¶9. (U) As the crisis wears on and disrupts daily life, more and more Hondurans are expressing disgust with the state of affairs their leaders have brought them to. Parents and some teachers this past weekend openly opposed the teachers union leaders for insisting that classes remain suspended so that teachers could participate in pro-Zelaya protests. Many teachers defied their leaders and went back to the classrooms, and primary school teachers are going back en masse this week. Business contacts report that many rank-and-file workers are ignoring invocations from their leaders to strike and protest. ¶10. (C) Ref B reported that, despite what the present and former Chief Justices have been saying about the legality of the June 28 coup, many current justices consider it was illegal. The Court's legal adviser even suggested the military officials who carried it out should be charged. EconCouns sought to speak offline July 13 with the Chief Prosecutor at the Public Ministry about the current environment. She at first agreed, then decided she should ask Attorney General Rubi for permission. Rubi said she could meet only in her office. This indicates there may be tension between Rubi and career prosecutors (possible pinks) over both the coup and its aftermath. ¶11. (C) Finally, Poloff was copied on a recent e-mail posting by a self-described "young professional" denouncing both the Honduran political class and the so-called "leaders" of the peasants, workers, teachers and indigenous groups, as well as human rights NGOs, the economic elite, OAS SecGen Insulza and Hugo Chavez. The missive concluded: "Don't align yourself with the oppressors of the people and the poor. No to the 'fourth urn.' No to all this stupidity!" -------------- Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) The polarized media and street demonstrations notwithstanding, our sense is that the fed-up and moderate middle is significant and expanding. Cracks are appearing in the armor of the coup defenders, and the population is growing weary of the melodrama. The most reliable scientific poll we have shows only a plurality -- not a majority -- think the coup was justified. Some leftist leaders are now calling for violence and insurrection to bring Zelaya back, but this will backfire with those who seeking a return to normalcy. The Arias negotiations or some alternate will likely have the have the support of this quiet but growing group. End Comment. LLORENS