HONDURAN COUP: POLITICAL WRAP-UP 07/13/09

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000588 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM HO SUBJECT: HONDURAN COUP: POLITICAL WRAP-UP 07/13/09 REF: A. A) TEGUCIGALPA 579 ¶B. B) TEGUCIGALPA 577 AND PREVIOUS ¶C. C) TEGUCIGALPA 574 ¶D. D) TEGUCIGALPA 567 Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens, E.O. 12958 1.4(d) 1.(U) Summary: This is the second in a series of daily round-ups of political news in the aftermath of the June 28 forcible removal and exile of President Manuel Zelaya from Honduras. End Summary. -------------- Media analyzes Arias talks -------------- ¶2. (U) Local media coverage was pessimistic on the prospects for a successful outcome of the Arias talks. Reports focused on the long delay between negotiations and the lack of progress in the early stages of the talks. The daily "Tiempo" (which has been the most moderate of the major dailies since the coup) carried an article noting Chavez's criticism of the talks and his call for President Obama to remove US military forces from Honduras if the USG "really" condemns the coup. ¶3. (U) Media quotes exposed divergent messages from members of the Zelaya team. Zelaya's Foreign Minister Patricia Rodas spun the outcome positively, noting that the meetings in Costa Rica were a step toward reinstating democracy in Honduras. However, another member of the Zelaya team, Silvia Ayala, condemned the Micheletti team, claiming the delegation was there only to "buy time" and legitimize the coup. Ayala said the Zelaya team would join another dialogue only if it will expedite the return of Zelaya to presidency. ¶4. (C) (Note: Zelaya confirmed to Carlos Flores July 12 that his team would continue to participate in the talks. See septel. End note). ¶5. (U) Conservative daily El Heraldo reported July 13 that de facto regime Minister of Information Rene Zepeda said that the regime was analyzing the possibility of an amnesty for President Zelaya for political crimes, but that no amnesty would be possible for non-political crimes. In the same article, a representative of the Attorney General's office said that two of the charges pending against Zelaya (treason and attempting to change the form of government) were political and two were not (usurping government authority and abuse of authority). -------------- Where in the World is Mel Zelaya? -------------- ¶6. (U) While few details of Zelaya's conversations over the weekend emerged in the media, papers did cover his whirlwind tour as he tried to shore up international support for his reinstatement. Over the weekend Zelaya jetted from the Dominican Republic, where he met with President Fernandez, to Washington, to New Orleans and finally to Managua, where he remained as of noon July 13. -------------- Corruption Investigation Continues -------------- ¶7. (U) On July 11 the National Banking and Insurance Commission (CNBS) passed personal financial information of various Zelaya administration officials to the Attorney General. In public comments, CNBS Director Daniel Figueroa said he provided information on a "substantial number" of officials at the request of the Attorney General's Office. Figueroa emphasized that no accounts of any of these officials had been frozen. -------------- Tegucigalpa returning to normal -------------- ¶8. (U) In Tegucigalpa life is returning to a semblance of normalcy, with businesses open and people out in the streets and at parks. As of 0430 July 12, the nighttime curfew that had been in effect in some form since June 28 was lifted indefinitely. -------------- Budget in Peril? -------------- ¶9. (U) According to economist Nelson Avila, an economic adviser to Zelaya, almost a third of the national budget depends on bilateral and multilateral support, and Honduras cannot afford to lose this support. Multiple economists stated in "Tiempo" that Honduras cannot sustain itself on its own for more than 4-6 months. Meanwhile, an article in the conservative daily "El Heraldo" asserts that the domestic debt of the central government doubled under Zelaya to 13.72 billion lempiras (USD 726 million),as of the end of March. However, if true, the total debt outstanding would still equal only 5 percent of GDP. LLORENS