HONDURAN COUP: STEPS TOWARD RECONCILIATION

S E C R E T TEGUCIGALPA 000533 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2039 TAGS: PGOV HO SUBJECT: HONDURAN COUP: STEPS TOWARD RECONCILIATION REF: A. STATE 69222 ¶B. TEGUCIGALPA 532 AND PREVIOUS ¶C. TEGUCIGALPA 523 Classified By: amb. Hugo Llorens, e.o. 12958 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Separately from the discussion track the Ambassador is conducting per ref A, Embassy has opened up a back-channel of communication with remnants of the deposed Zelaya Government and dissident members of Congress who are interested in establishing a dialogue leading to national reconciliation and conditional restoration of Zelaya as President. More people are coming forward to speak out against the June 28 coup, or at least to acknowledge that it was a coup. Society remains deeply divided along class and educational lines. But both major party presidential candidates aired statements on national television July 3 calling for dialogue, mutual understanding and non-violence. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Six days after the coup that installed former President of Congress Roberto Micheletti as de facto interim President of the Republic, some segments of Honduras's educated chattering class are beginning to acknowledge openly that the events of June 28 broke the constitutional order. Although it still appears that the vast majority of educated Hondurans (those possessing at least a high school diploma) strongly oppose returning Zelaya to power, several prominent figures, including both major presidential candidates and Cardinal Rodriguez, are now calling for dialogue and national reconciliation without explicitly endorsing or denouncing the June 28 coup. ¶3. (SBU) Most media outlets are now back on the air, but intimidation and self-censorship still prevail. Nonetheless, the country's most popular morning news talk show, "Frente a Frente," whose moderator has been openly supportive of the coup from the beginning, aired a discussion July 3 between former Supreme Court Chief Justice Vilma Morales, who strongly defended the constitutionality of the coup, and Wilfredo Mendez, the executive director of the social-democrat PINU party, who questioned the legitimacy of the military's action and the authenticity of Zelaya's purported arrest warrant and resignation letter. Post has learned that Mendez was expelled from the PINU party for his views, as were all but one of the party's members of Congress (see below). -------------- Back Channel to Zelaya Government -------------- ¶4. (S) On July 1, an employee of the Honduran Revenue Agency (DEI) contacted EconCouns on behalf of DEI Director Armando Sarmiento (since replaced by Micheletti),who was in hiding at the Argentine Embassy. Under the Ambassador,s instructions, EconCouns subsequently met with Sarmiento at the Argentine Embassy. Sarmiento claimed he had been authorized by President Zelaya, through his son Hector, to serve as coordinator to establish a dialogue with the de facto Micheletti Government to negotiate Zelaya's conditional return. He said he had also been in contact with Liberal Party Congressman Jose Azcona and other members of Congress who opposed the coup but were afraid to speak out (see below),and with Gabriela Nunez, who was Central Bank President under Zelaya until January 2008 and is now Finance Minister in the de facto Micheletti cabinet (she was also his running mate in the November 2008 primary elections). Sarmiento left the Argentine Embassy July 3 and returned to his home, where he continues to work toward establishing a dialogue on behalf of President Zelaya. He thinks it will be essential for the USG to play an active role in initiating and overseeing such a dialogue. He is keeping us regularly informed of his efforts. -------------- Dissident Deputies Speak Out -------------- ¶5. (S) Following the initial contact with Sarmiento, the same DEI employee brought Congressman Jose Azcona, son of the former president of the same name and until recently part of Micheletti's inner circle in the Congress, to meet with the Ambassador July 1. Azcona alleged there were irregularities in the Congressional action June 28 that removed Zelaya from office and installed Micheletti as interim president. For one thing, he claimed, there was no quorum. He said he had expressed his reservations in writing to the new President of Congress, Jose Saavedra, and had since been ostracized from the new leadership. Azcona was interested in acting as a go-between with the new and deposed governments and other Honduran political actors, including the presidential candidates, to restore the constitutional order. Like Sarmiento, he considered an active USG role to be critical to the process. ¶6. (S) According to Sarmiento, several members of Congress (deputies),came together in San Pedro Sula July 2, either in person or by proxy, to express their opposition to the events of June 28 and support for a process of reconciliation and restoration of the constitutional order with Zelaya as head of state. EconCouns met with 12 deputies at Sarmiento's residence July 3, as well as a number of alternates (suplentes). They claim to have the support of the following deputies: - Elvia Argentina Valle (L-Copan) - Mary Elizabeth "Lizzy" Flores (L-Francisco Morazan), daughter of former President Carlos Flores and Vice President of the Congress - Carolina Echeverria (L-Gracias a Dios),long considered close to Micheletti - Jose Rodrigo Trochez (L-Santa Barbara) - Eleazar Juarez (L-Valle) - Margarita Zelaya (L-Cortes),a distant relative of the President - Erick Rodriguez (L-Lempira) - Javier Hall (L-Yoro) - Edmundo Orellana (L-Francisco Morazan),Defense Minister who resigned over firing of Joint Chiefs Chairman Vasquez Velasquez - Gladis del Cid (L-Cortes) - Elias Arnaldo Guevara (L-Lempira) - Norma Calderon (L-Cortes) - Marvin Ponce (UD-Francisco Morazan) - Marleny Paz (UD-Cortes) - Silvia Ayala (UD-Cortes) - Oscar Mejia (UD-Santa Barbara) - Cesar Ham (UD-Yoro),a close conspirator with Zelaya in trying to carry out his proposed constitutional reform poll and referendum and the UD Presidential nominee ¶7. (S) EconCouns met with 12 of these dissident deputies -- Argentina Valle, Echeverria, Trochez, Juarez, Zelaya, Ponce, Paz, Guevara, Hall, Rodriguez, Del Cid and Calderon -- July 3, along with three alternates (suplentes),at Sarmiento's residence. They claimed that in addition, all members of Congress from the tiny social-democrat PINU Party, other than coup-supporter Toribio Aguilera, had been expelled from the party over their opposition to Zelaya's forcible removal from office. They also said that Azcona prefers not to come forward at this point so that he can maintain his credibility as a go-between with Micheletti. ¶8. (SBU) Echeverria and Argentina Valle made statements on national radio July 2 calling the actions of June 28 a coup. Three other deputies told EconCouns they attempted to make similar statements on local radio stations but were prevented -- the transmissions were cut. The 12 deputies who attended the meeting at Sarmiento's residence gave a press conference at a public park the evening of July 3 denouncing the illegal removal of President Zelaya from office. It has received only limited media coverage as of the morning of July 4. -------------- Outlines of a Dialogue -------------- ¶9. (S) Through outreach to these and other contacts in recent days, certain core elements of a possible reconciliation dialogue have emerged, with the goal of allowing Zelaya to return as President, with certain safeguards to assure that he would not once again destabilize the body politic or wreak revenge on his opponents. Elements that have been suggested include a temporary political amnesty or suspension of prosecutorial action, suspension of any consideration of constitutional reform until after the new government assumes office in 2010, placing the Armed Forces under the authority of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE),guaranteed funding for the TSE and other institutions necessary to carry out the November elections and exclusion of certain extreme members of Zelaya's cabinet. The dialogue should include one representative each from the Micheletti and Zelaya teams, as well as representatives from the Congress and Supreme Court, and possibly Honduran political elder statesmen and former presidents Carlos Flores and Ricardo Maduro. It might also be necessary to include a representative of one of the "civil society" groups supporting Zelaya. There is broad agreement that the talks should take place outside Honduras. Mexico and Costa Rica have been mentioned as possible venues. International support and observation will be necessary throughout the process. ¶10. (C) Post will continue to pursue this avenue of outreach alongside the Ambassador's channel that will be reported septel. LLORENS