PROTESTS AGAINST THE FOURTH URN

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000492 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/FO FOR A/S SHANNON AND DAS DAVE ROBINSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL HO SUBJECT: PROTESTS AGAINST THE FOURTH URN REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 489 ¶B. TEGUCIGALPA 438 ¶C. SECSTATE 61160 ¶D. TEGUCIGALPA 462 ¶E. TEGUCIGALPA 474 Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Hugo Llorens, reasons 1.4 (B & d) ¶1. (U) The Alliance for Peace and Democracy, led by religious, private sector and professional organization leaders, marched in San Pedro Sula, Honduras, second largest city and business center, on June 23 in support of democracy and to protest President Manuel "Mel" Zelaya,s attempt to hold a June 28 nation-wide, government-sponsored poll. The poll, which was ruled illegal by an appellate court, is the first step in the President,s plan to hold a Constituent Assembly and rewrite the Constitution (reftels). Reported participation in the march varied widely with newspapers reporting a clearly exaggerated 120,000, San Pedro Sula police reporting 20,000, and a private security firm estimating between 5,000 and 10,000. From photographs and video of the march, we estimate that the police figure was probably the most accurate. The Alliance also launched a media campaign and held several smaller rallies throughout the country. ¶2. (C) COMMENT: The San Pedro Sula march was the largest in Honduras on any issue in recent memory, by a factor of at least four even with the 20,000 estimate. It was particularly noteworthy as the crowd was not paid, which is typically true of government-sponsored rallies. It remains to be seen if the interest can be maintained or expanded to other cities. A demonstration organized by the same group in Tegucigalpa on June 24 drew only 150 people. END COMMENT LLORENS