(C) ZELAYA ZIG-ZAGS THE RED LINES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEGUCIGALPA 000462 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM HO SUBJECT: (C) ZELAYA ZIG-ZAGS THE RED LINES REF: TEGUCIGALPA 438 AND PREVIOUS TEGUCIGALP 00000462 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens, reasons 1.4 (B & D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Zelaya is coming closer to stepping over our red lines on maintenance of the constitutional order. His actions have been singularly focused on attempts to push for a poll and a referendum for a constituent assembly to reform the Honduran constitution; the tactics he has used have strayed increasingly from the rule of law. His rhetoric has become increasingly belligerent and he has begun taking steps that show disrespect for the separation of powers, state institutions and the courts. These steps include his refusal to submit a national budget, the withholding of funds for Congressional and Supreme Court salaries and operations, the manipulation of municipal funds so that only mayors that support the president's Fourth Urn proposal receive sufficient resources, ordering the military to construct a civilian airport at Palmerola (Soto Cano) and spending public funds on promoting his referendum proposal. He has vowed to push forward to hold a poll on June 28 to canvass public opinion on the issue of the Fourth Urn in defiance of an administrative court judge's order declaring such a poll illegal. In fairness, Honduras remains a vibrant if imperfect democracy with ample freedoms and a press highly critical of President Zelaya and his government. Moreover, Zelaya may be seeking a face saving way out of the crisis and his asked for U.S. support in promoting a dialogue. The major political showdown will likely come in the July-September time frame when the Congress makes a final ruling on the Fourth Urn. In the event the National Congress denies the Fourth Urn, or approves a variant unacceptable to Zelaya, it remains to be seen whether Zelaya will accept the result or recklessly clash with Congress and precipitate a major constitutional crisis. We remain in close touch with all sides and consistently convey our unwavering commitment to Honduran democracy. We have also made clear to Zelaya, senior GOH officials and the military what would constitute unacceptable actions and behavior against the rule of law and the constitutional order. End Summary. Setting a Negative Tone -------------- ¶2. (C) President Zelaya's increasingly confrontational approach has been characterized by increasingly belligerent rhetoric. Several weeks ago, when the Attorney General called the Fourth Urn illegal and noted that proponents could be subject to criminal penalties, Zelaya held a press conference where he taunted the Attorney General and dared him to "come and arrest me." When a court ruled illegal the use of government resources by Zelaya to hold a poll to seek support for the Fourth Urn, Zelaya lashed out at the ruling and again taunted his opponents to try and arrest him. The Power of the Purse -------------- ¶3. (C) Going beyond rhetoric, Zelaya has taken a number of steps that threaten the rule of law. By law, Zelaya was obliged to send a budget to Congress last fall for the fiscal year that began January 1. The submission has been repeatedly delayed for a number of reasons, including uncertainty about revenue projections and donor contributions and the struggle of the Finance Ministry to fund Zelaya's spending proposals in his last year in office. While Finance Minister Rebeca Santos asserted that the Executive had no obligation to submit a budget for 2009, because it could continue to operate under authorities granted in 2008 and previous years, absence of an approved spending plan makes it easier for Zelaya's team to withhold funds from those that oppose them and to finance their pet projects without any oversight. (It will also leave his successors the tab. Embassy sources report that hundreds of millions of dollars TEGUCIGALP 00000462 002.2 OF 003 of short-term debt obligations are being incurred that will have to be rolled over soon after the next President takes office in early 2010.) Meanwhile, important new initiatives, including civil service reform, are not going forward for lack of funding, and some foreign donors have announced they are withholding funds for lack of GOH counterpart financing. ¶4. (C) Further tightening the screws, Zelaya threatened not to submit a budget unless Congress supported several of his pet projects including the Fourth Urn proposal and hinted that funding might not be available for the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). He followed through by freezing Congressional and Supreme Court funds for salaries and operations, leaving most to believe that funding would depend on Congressional acceptance of the Fourth Urn. Little of the funding required by the TSE has been released, which has hampered TSE efforts to prepare for the November elections. ¶5. (C) Most municipal funds, which are distributed through the central government, have been used by Zelaya to reward friends and harm enemies. Municipalities that have supported his rural campaigns to garner support for the Fourth Urn have received ample funds while those that have not been supportive have been starved for resources. For example, Zelaya refused to provide federal funding for San Pedro Sula, Honduras's second largest city, because Mayor Rodolfo Padilla Sunseri initially opposed the Fourth Urn and was a supporter of Liberal Party candidate Elvin Santos. Zelaya's pressure has paid off and in return for generous transfers from the central government Padilla has become an eager supporter of the Fourth Urn. By contrast, Zelaya has choked off most funding for the city of Tegucigalpa, in part in retaliation for Mayor Ricardo Alvarez,s staunch opposition to the Fourth Urn. ¶6. (C) Despite not having a budget, the GOH has identified significant amounts of money to bombard the airwaves with ads promoting the Fourth Urn. The ads are playing on privately-owned stations (the ones that most people watch) that charge high rates for their airtime. Hundreds of people have been hired to travel across the country and to obtain signatures on petitions in favor of the Fourth Urn, with salaries, travel costs, and per diem paid for by the government. The government hired former Liberal Party President of the Congress Carlos Montoya, who has become known as the "Commissioner for the Fourth Urn," to run the entire campaign. He has been given a position at the Central Bank with full salary and an allegedly unconstrained expense account. In addition, Zelaya's Ministers have been directed to focus the bulk of their time and attention in campaigning in support of the June 28 poll and the Fourth Urn. Several Ministers have told us that the government is at a virtual standstill with little work being done in dealing with the major economic and security challenges facing the nation. Airport Project for the Military -------------- ¶7. (C) In an attempt to politicize the military, Zelaya took his plans to develop a commercial airport at Soto Cano out of normal government channels and ordered the military to build a terminal, offering them control of the roughly USD 12.5 million initially budgeted for the plan, which should have been the purview of the Public Works Ministry. Press reports focused on the lack of legal procedures, including bidding and procurement, which would have to be followed if a legitimate airport were to be built, as well as on the lack of planning to adequately separate the airport's military and civilian functions. Defying the Judiciary -------------- ¶8. (C) Zelaya's plans to carry out a poll on June 28 to canvass public support for the Fourth Urn proposal has been a TEGUCIGALP 00000462 003.2 OF 003 highly controversial decision that has involved the judiciary. Last month, the Attorney General's office filed a case in a Federal Administrative court challenging the legally of the poll on the grounds that the entity tasked with conducting the poll, the National Statistical Institute, cannot be involved in activities that are political in nature. Two weeks ago, the Administrative Court judge ruled in favor of the Attorney General and abrogated the GOH decree authorizing the poll. The judge instructed all government agencies to suspend all publicity and logistical activities related to the poll. In open defiance of the court's decision, Zelaya convened a press conference, along with the Minister of Defense and Armed Forced Chief General Vasquez, and said that he would press on with the poll despite the court order. Zelaya stated that he had ordered the Armed Forces to provide the logistics to carry out the poll. Zelaya's order to the military to involve themselves in an activity that has been ruled as illegal has convulsed the Honduran Armed Forces into its most serious crisis since the nation's return to democratic rule 28 years ago. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Honduras remains a vibrant if imperfect democracy with a remarkably high quotient of freedom, active political parties and civil society, and a press that is overwhelmingly and in a virtually unrestricted manner highly critical of President Zelaya and his government. Nevertheless, as Zelaya and his cohorts make the final push for the Fourth Urn, they have demonstrated an increasing disregard for democratic norms that are of concern to us and to most diplomatic missions here in Tegucigalpa. ¶10. (C) Comment continued: While the issue of the June 28 poll will be controversial, the big constitutional question will likely come in the July-September time frame when the National Congress makes a final ruling on whether to approve Zelaya's Fourth Urn proposal, deny it outright as illegal and unconstitutional, or allow for some variant of a plebiscite or referendum that would be an acceptable consensus decision of all parties. In the event the National Congress denies the Fourth Urn, or approves a variant unacceptable to Zelaya, it remains to be seen whether Zelaya will accept the result or choose to definitively cross the red lines by seeking to defy and attack Congress. The Embassy will continue to stay in close touch with all sides and convey our unwavering commitment to Honduran democracy. We have also conveyed to Zelaya, senior GOH officials and the military what would constitute unacceptable actions and behavior against the rule of law and the constitutional order. LLORENS