NATIONAL PARTY PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE PEPE LOBO'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEGUCIGALPA 000355 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR DAN RESTREPO TREASURY FOR DAS NANCY LEE COMMERCE FOR DAS WALTER BASTIEN DHS FOR AA/S RICHARD BARTH WHA FOR A/S TOM SHANNON DOD FOR DAS FRANK MORA E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM SMIG EFIN HO SUBJECT: NATIONAL PARTY PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE PEPE LOBO'S VISIT TO WASHINGTON REF: A. A. TEGUCIGALPA 339 ¶B. B. TEGUCIGALPA 310 ¶C. C. TEGUCIGALPA 210 ¶D. D. TEGUCIGALPA 348 Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens, reason 1.4 (B & D) ¶1. (C) National Party (NP) Presidential candidate Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo travels to Washington at a delicate moment in Honduras. Democracy has been successful in Honduras over the past 28 years, but the system remains institutionally weak and fragile. Although we maintain a strong working relationship with President Manuel "Mel" Zelaya, he is increasingly behaving in erratic fashion and appears obsessed with holding a referendum, "Fourth Urn," on Election Day that would ask the public whether a Constituent Assembly should be called to re-write the Constitution (refs B & C). The manner in which the Fourth Urn campaign is being carried out has engendered widespread fear that Zelaya is seeking to use the Fourth Urn as a Trojan Horse to perpetuate himself in power. Originally vehemently opposed to the idea, going as far as to kick a cardboard urn at a National Party meeting in April, Lobo has since changed his mind based on polls showing the popularity of the idea. Lobo now is attempting to "steal" the idea away from Zelaya, and also ensure that any referendum is not open ended, but narrow in scope, denying Zelaya the opportunity to manipulate the process to serve his own interests. (ref A). Meanwhile, POLITICAL elite's are attacking the Fourth Urn on legalistic grounds. These efforts are not resonating with the general public, which supports the idea of being consulted on a new constitution (though not supportive of keeping Zelaya in power). The Supreme Court and the Attorney General are staking their ground on the issue publicly in opposition to the President, generating tension and a sense of crisis between the various branches of government. ¶2. (C) Lobo will be traveling to Washington with a start-studded team that consists of former President Ricardo Maduro, former U.S. Ambassador to the United States (and his National Party presidential primary rival) Mario Canahuati, former Finance Minister Maria Elena Mondragon, former 
Security Minister Oscar Alvarez, Tegucigalpa Mayor Ricardo Alvarez, and former Defense Minister (and trip organizer and interpreter) Federico Breve. Alvarez is a widely respected rising stair in the National Party. Both Maduro and Canahuati are politically savvy, with an in-depth knowledge of how Washington works. They will be of great use to Lobo as he navigates USG bureaucracy. ¶3. (C) Our objective in setting up and supporting this trip was to focus the leading Presidential candidates at a moment of POLITICAL uncertainty. We have also invited Liberal Party candidate Elvin Santos, who is currently embroiled in Liberal Party POLITICAL machinations and decided not to travel until July, and would be happy to facilitate the travel of the other minor party candidates. By receiving the candidates at a high level in Washington, we are sending a message of strong U.S. support for the Honduran elections process. It also conveys the USG view that we see the candidates as serious interlocutors and as potential future leaders of Honduras. We believe that this trip will boost their credibility at home and the credibility of the elections at a moment when Honduran democracy appears to be under siege. The visit also provides an opportunity for senior U.S. policymakers to meet the possible next President TEGUCIGALP 00000355 002 OF 003 of Honduras and address areas of mutual interest before he even enters office. Policymakers would have an opportunity to brief the candidates on USG policies and programs in the region and describe the Obama Administration's views on relations with Latin and Central America. Both Lobo and Santos are very pro-United States -- both graduated from U.S. Universities -- and we could expect either of their governments to be one of the most pro-United States in the region, a marked improvement from the current administration. Lobo's Message -------------- ¶4. (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador on May 13, Lobo told us that his key message will be one of keeping close relations with the United States. He told us he has had meetings with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and that he has approached Santos with a proposal that they both sign a symbolic letter of intent to negotiate an IMF agreement if either are elected. Lobo said he wants to create a climate of confidence to encourage U.S. investment. He also said that his message to the Department of Defense will be that, if elected, he would welcome a continued U.S. military presence in Honduras at Soto Cano, and would even consider offering Soto Cano as a possible future home of a Forward Operating Location (FOL),in the event the FOL at Comalapa in El Salvador faced difficulty. Biographical Notes for Lobo -------------- ¶5. (C) Pepe Lobo, born December 22, 1947 in Trujillo, is the National Party candidate for president. Lobo ran for President as the National Party candidate in 2006, but was narrowly defeated by current President Manuel "Mel" Zelaya. Following his defeat, he took up the reins of the National Party as President of the Central Committee. Lobo won a landslide victory in the November 2008 primary elections but has been trailing his Liberal Party opponent, former Vice President Elvin Santos, by approximately 10 percentage points in the polls. Lobo is still considered to be part of the "old school" of politics, and many say he may be disadvantaged in the contest against Santos because of this fact, plus the widely-held opinion that he lacks charisma and is considered physically unattractive. The general election will take place in November 29, 2009. ¶6. (C) Despite opposing the idea for several months, Lobo recently reversed course and announced his support for President Zelaya's plan to implement a survey on June 30 which would ask the Honduran population whether they support a Constitutional Assembly. Lobo tells us that he made this move because polling showed the idea of consulting the public on issues of concern is extremely popular (over 70% in favor). His polls also show that the idea of Zelaya staying in power is even more unpopular (over 80%). Lobo's strategy is to "steal" the idea from Zelaya, and avoid direct confrontation with him. He believes that he will be able to use the overwhelming control of the National Congress by moderate Liberal and National members to create a legal and regulatory framework to immunize the Fourth Urn from what he believes is an attempt by Zelaya to subvert the constitutional order and stay in power. ¶7. (SBU) Although Lobo started with a modest inheritance, he developed his family's holdings into one of the largest grain and cattle producing ranches in Honduras. He received a B.A. in accounting from the University of TEGUCIGALP 00000355 003 OF 003 Miami. From 1990 to 1992, Lobo served as head of the Honduran forest service (COHDEFOR). LLORENS