TFH01:ELECTION RESULTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 001235

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HO
SUBJECT: TFH01:ELECTION RESULTS

REF: TEGUCIGALPA 1222


1. (U) Summary. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE)
announced unverified results from the rapid transmission of
preliminary results (TREP) system on election day, November

29. The TREP figures have now been subject to verification
and indicate a voter turnout rate of 50 percent. National
Party candidate Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo remains the undisputed
leader with 56 percent of the vote compared to 38 percent for
the second place candidate, Elvin Santos of the Liberal
Party. Lobo appears to have gained significantly more votes
than 2005 winner President Jose Manuel "Mel" Zelaya. While
turnout looks to be lower in percentage rates than 2005,
actual number of votes will be greater. The National Party
also crushed the Liberal Party in Congressional and municipal
votes. The Nationalists are believed to have won at least
70-72 of the 128-seat Congress, and swept the municipalities
winning at least 240 of the 298 mayoral contests. This is
the worst electoral defeat in the 120 year history of the
Liberal Party. Honduran voters severely punished Liberals
and sent a powerful message of rejection of both Zelaya and
de facto regime leader Roberto Micheletti. End Summary.


2. (U) The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) announced
unverified results from the rapid transmission of preliminary
results (TREP) system on election day, November 29 (see
reftel). The TSE did state during the press conference at
which it announced the results that they still had to be
verified. The TSE did a calculation of participation based
on the unverified TREP results. On election day, the TSE had
received reporting from 61.86 percent of voting stations.
The TSE calculated what the total vote count would be with
100 percent of voting stations reporting and used the figure
they came up with to calculate the voter turnout rate of 62
percent they announced.


3. (U) The TREP figures have now been subject to
verification. As of today, the total number of votes stands
at 1,631,847 with 70.53 percent of polling stations
reporting. The projected total number of votes with 100
percent of voting stations reporting is 2,313,692 with a
total number of eligible voters of 4,601,032. If one does the
same projection that the TSE carried out on election day, the
participation rate would be 50.29 percent. IFES conducted a
further slight adjustment to include likely votes cast in the
United States, which are not included in the TREP but
included in the rolls of eligible voters, and came up with an
estimated participation rate of 50.4 percent. Of the total
1,631,847 votes cast, 40,651 were blank and 63,227 were
invalid.


4. (U) National Party candidate Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo remains
the winner with a commanding lead. With 70.53 percent of
polling stations reporting, Lobo received 854,200 votes,
National Party candidate Elvin Santos received 584,559 votes,
Social Democratic Innovation and Unity Party (PINU) candidate
Bernard Martinez received 32,784 votes, Christian Democratic
Party (DC) candidate Felicito Avila received 29,050 votes,
and Democratic Unification Party (UD) candidate Cesar Ham
received 27,376 votes. According to the TSE, these numbers
translate into 56 percent of the vote for Lobo, 38 percent
for Santos, and 2 percent each for the other three
candidates. Lobo's showing should translate into close to 1.2
million votes once all polling stations report, significantly
higher than those garnered by President Jose Manuel "Mel"
Zelaya in 2005; Zelaya received 915,075 votes, which was 49.9
percent of the vote in that election.


5. (SBU) On election day, TSE magistrate Enrique Ortez, from
the Liberal Party, was under pressure from his party not to
make the TREP results public. Ortez argued that without
verification of the TREP results, only the vote total for
each candidate should be read along with the percentage of
voting stations reporting. As the magistrates took their
seats at the press conference organized to announce the
results, TSE president Saul Escobar ordered David Santa
Maria, the TSE officer in charge of the TREP, to read all the
numbers, including the totals for each candidate. When Santa
Maria finished, Escobar told Ortez to read the entire report
on the quick count done by "Hagamos Democracia," the
USAID-funded civil society domestic monitoring coalition.
Although this was not planned and caught Ortez off guard, he

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read the report in its entirety. This report showed a
similar margin of victory for Pepe, but also included a lower
estimated participation rate of 47.6 percent.


6. (SBU) The National Party also scored an overwhelming
victory in Congressional and municipal elections. The
Nationalists appear to have won at least 70-72 of the 128
Congressional seats, a dramatic increase from their current

55. They also swept municipality tallies, winning at least
240 of the 298 mayoral contests.


7. (SBU) Comment. TSE magistrate Raul Escobar, who belongs
to the small Christian Democratic party, acted decisively on
election day. IFES expressed concern to USAID on December 1
about the politicization of the TSE, noting that there would
be no institutional progress if the TSE magistrates do not
distance themselves from the political parties to which they
belong. The 50 percent turnout is a solid number for
Honduras, especially given the estimate that 15 percent of
registered voters live overseas. While this is lower than
2005's 55 percent, it follows a multi-election trend of lower
turnout rates as over the years new names have been added to
the voter rolls without taking out names of voters no longer
resident. Nevertheless, if current trends continue, the raw
numbers should show a higher number of total votes for this
election than in 2005.


8. (SBU) Comment continued. This is the worst electoral
defeat in the 120-year history of the Liberal Party.
Honduran voters severely punished Liberals and sent a
powerful message of rejection of both Zelaya and Micheletti.
LLORENS