TFH01:ELECTION RESULTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 001235 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HO SUBJECT: TFH01:ELECTION RESULTS REF: TEGUCIGALPA 1222 ¶1. (U) Summary. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) announced unverified results from the rapid transmission of preliminary results (TREP) system on election day, November ¶29. The TREP figures have now been subject to verification and indicate a voter turnout rate of 50 percent. National Party candidate Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo remains the undisputed leader with 56 percent of the vote compared to 38 percent for the second place candidate, Elvin Santos of the Liberal Party. Lobo appears to have gained significantly more votes than 2005 winner President Jose Manuel "Mel" Zelaya. While turnout looks to be lower in percentage rates than 2005, actual number of votes will be greater. The National Party also crushed the Liberal Party in Congressional and municipal votes. The Nationalists are believed to have won at least 70-72 of the 128-seat Congress, and swept the municipalities winning at least 240 of the 298 mayoral contests. This is the worst electoral defeat in the 120 year history of the Liberal Party. Honduran voters severely punished Liberals and sent a powerful message of rejection of both Zelaya and de facto regime leader Roberto Micheletti. End Summary. ¶2. (U) The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) announced unverified results from the rapid transmission of preliminary results (TREP) system on election day, November 29 (see reftel). The TSE did state during the press conference at which it announced the results that they still had to be verified. The TSE did a calculation of participation based on the unverified TREP results. On election day, the TSE had received reporting from 61.86 percent of voting stations. The TSE calculated what the total vote count would be with 100 percent of voting stations reporting and used the figure they came up with to calculate the voter turnout rate of 62 percent they announced. ¶3. (U) The TREP figures have now been subject to verification. As of today, the total number of votes stands at 1,631,847 with 70.53 percent of polling stations reporting. The projected total number of votes with 100 percent of voting stations reporting is 2,313,692 with a total number of eligible voters of 4,601,032. If one does the same projection that the TSE carried out on election day, the participation rate would be 50.29 percent. IFES conducted a further slight adjustment to include likely votes cast in the United States, which are not included in the TREP but included in the rolls of eligible voters, and came up with an estimated participation rate of 50.4 percent. Of the total 1,631,847 votes cast, 40,651 were blank and 63,227 were invalid. ¶4. (U) National Party candidate Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo remains the winner with a commanding lead. With 70.53 percent of polling stations reporting, Lobo received 854,200 votes, National Party candidate Elvin Santos received 584,559 votes, Social Democratic Innovation and Unity Party (PINU) candidate Bernard Martinez received 32,784 votes, Christian Democratic Party (DC) candidate Felicito Avila received 29,050 votes, and Democratic Unification Party (UD) candidate Cesar Ham received 27,376 votes. According to the TSE, these numbers translate into 56 percent of the vote for Lobo, 38 percent for Santos, and 2 percent each for the other three candidates. Lobo's showing should translate into close to 1.2 million votes once all polling stations report, significantly higher than those garnered by President Jose Manuel "Mel" Zelaya in 2005; Zelaya received 915,075 votes, which was 49.9 percent of the vote in that election. ¶5. (SBU) On election day, TSE magistrate Enrique Ortez, from the Liberal Party, was under pressure from his party not to make the TREP results public. Ortez argued that without verification of the TREP results, only the vote total for each candidate should be read along with the percentage of voting stations reporting. As the magistrates took their seats at the press conference organized to announce the results, TSE president Saul Escobar ordered David Santa Maria, the TSE officer in charge of the TREP, to read all the numbers, including the totals for each candidate. When Santa Maria finished, Escobar told Ortez to read the entire report on the quick count done by "Hagamos Democracia," the USAID-funded civil society domestic monitoring coalition. Although this was not planned and caught Ortez off guard, he TEGUCIGALP 00001235 002 OF 002 read the report in its entirety. This report showed a similar margin of victory for Pepe, but also included a lower estimated participation rate of 47.6 percent. ¶6. (SBU) The National Party also scored an overwhelming victory in Congressional and municipal elections. The Nationalists appear to have won at least 70-72 of the 128 Congressional seats, a dramatic increase from their current ¶55. They also swept municipality tallies, winning at least 240 of the 298 mayoral contests. ¶7. (SBU) Comment. TSE magistrate Raul Escobar, who belongs to the small Christian Democratic party, acted decisively on election day. IFES expressed concern to USAID on December 1 about the politicization of the TSE, noting that there would be no institutional progress if the TSE magistrates do not distance themselves from the political parties to which they belong. The 50 percent turnout is a solid number for Honduras, especially given the estimate that 15 percent of registered voters live overseas. While this is lower than 2005's 55 percent, it follows a multi-election trend of lower turnout rates as over the years new names have been added to the voter rolls without taking out names of voters no longer resident. Nevertheless, if current trends continue, the raw numbers should show a higher number of total votes for this election than in 2005. ¶8. (SBU) Comment continued. This is the worst electoral defeat in the 120-year history of the Liberal Party. Honduran voters severely punished Liberals and sent a powerful message of rejection of both Zelaya and Micheletti. LLORENS