SCENESETTER FOR THE ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TEGUCIGALPA 001212 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM HO SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE ELECTIONS REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 1203 ¶B. TEGUCIGALPA 1202 ¶C. TEGUCIGALPA 1194 ¶D. TEGUCIGALPA 1192 ¶E. TEGUCIGALPA 1191 ¶F. TEGUCIGALPA 1190 ¶G. TEGUCIGALPA 1178 ¶H. TEGUCIGALPA 1177 ¶I. TEGUCIGALPA 1175 ¶J. TEGUCIGALPA 1170 ¶K. TEGUCIGALPA 1132 ¶L. TEGUCIGALPA 1116 ¶M. TEGUCIGALPA 1110 ¶N. TEGUCIGALPA 866 ¶O. AND PREVIOUS. Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens for reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Honduras will hold a general election on November 29 with more than 15,000 candidates running for about 2,900 elected positions, including the presidency, all 128 congressional seats, and 298 mayoralties. The scheduling of the election pre-dates the June 28 coup and the election was organized and will be carried out, as it has in the past, by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE),an autonomous agency. The TSE has 30 days to announce the electoral results. President Jose Manuel "Mel" Zelaya stated that the elections are illegitimate because the de facto regime remains in place and called on his supporters not to vote. Although the Constitution states that voting is an obligation, there was a 44.62 percent rate of abstention in ¶2005. Pro-Zelaya resistance movement leaders may organize demonstrations, but are calling for them to be peaceful. Polls indicate that National Party presidential candidate Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo is the front-runner although his Liberal Party opponent, Elvin Santos, seems to have picked up ground in recent days. It is significant that 14 Liberal Party mayors who are hard-core Zelaya supporters just came out publicly in support of Santos. There will be no Organization of American States (OAS) observer mission, and therefore, no U.S. government observers. However, Embassy staff will be deployed nationwide to allow the Embassy to accurately report to the Department on the elections. End Summary. The Facts -------------- ¶2. (U) Honduras will hold a general election on Sunday, November 29. More than 15,000 candidates will run for about 2,900 elected positions and five political parties will field candidates. There are five candidates running for president (the sixth candidate withdrew on November 8) and each has three running mates. All 128 congressional seats are up for election and so are 298 mayoralties. The campaign period began on August 31 and ended on November 23. There are 4.5 million eligible voters of which approximately 500,000 will be eligible to vote for the first time in this election. There will be 5,360 polling centers, which are located in schools, containing 15,295 polling stations located in individual classrooms. ¶3. (C) The scheduling of the general election for November 29 pre-dates the June 28 coup d'etat. The de facto regime did not organize the elections as a way to whitewash the coup d'etat, but has taken advantage of them to argue that they provide the way forward out of the crisis, as opposed to restoring President Zelaya. Honduras is one of only two countries in the region that hold primary elections. The primaries in which the candidates currently running for office were chosen were held in November 2008 and were found by the Organization of American States to have been free, and fair, and a peaceful and civic journey in which Hondurans exercised their rights in an orderly manner. The political parties that the candidates represent are democratic institutions. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE),which is responsible for organizing and carrying out the election, is an autonomous body that is independent of the executive and, by the standards of the region, a competent one. The Process -------------- TEGUCIGALP 00001212 002 OF 004 ¶4. (SBU) The polls will open at 07:00 and close at 16:00. Hondurans do not have to register to vote and only need to present their national identity card to do so. Voter lists are posted outside of each voting station. Electoral law requires that at least three political parties have representatives at each voting station. Since the smaller parties do not have enough staff to cover all voting stations, they make deals with other parties to represent their interests at certain stations. This is perfectly legal and more prevalent in rural areas. The lists contain voters' name, phone number, identity card number, signature, and photo. Three ballot boxes are set up: one for president, one for congress, and one for mayoralties. Voters' hands are marked with indelible ink after voting. For the first time in a general election, the vote counting process must be public; the doors and windows of the polling centers must be open to theoretically allow the public to view the process and witness the count. ¶5. (SBU) Each polling station will first count the presidential ballots and relay those results to the TSE using a telephone provided by the TSE in the electoral kit. This rapid transmission of preliminary results (TREP) system provides a good sample of early voting results. There are concerns that the TREP may not function perfectly. The TSE was counting on Japanese funding to hire "custodians" who would activate the TREP system. When the Japanese funding did not come through, the TSE had to scale back the number of custodians and they will now only be present at all voting stations in the country's two largest cities, Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula, and at the department and municipal levels. However, if it works as envisioned the TREP could still result in early reporting of official results on 50-75 percent of the voting tables within hours of the closing of the polls. (Note: The National Democratic Institute, with funding from USAID, will conduct a "quick count," that will also provide complementary accurate preliminary results for the presidential race. End Note.) The polling stations then count the votes for congress and subsequently those for mayoralties. The TSE has 30 calendar days to announce the final results. According to Article 272 of the Constitution, the armed forces come under the authority of the TSE one month before election day and are responsible for ensuring security for the election, including the inviolacy and transport of the electoral material. This has been carried out without incident. Voter Turnout -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Although Article 44 of the Constitution makes voting obligatory, sanctions are not applied against those who fail to do so. However, according to the Electoral Law, individuals who interfere with the electoral process may receive jail sentences and fines, depending on the severity of the infraction. Voter abstention has historically been high and has increased over time. According to the Congressional records, in 1981 the abstention rate was 21.46 percent, in 1985 it was 15.95 percent, in 1989 it rose to 24.02 percent, in 1993 it rose again to 35.19 percent, in 1997 it was 28 percent, in 2001 it was 33.73 percent and in 2005 it reached 44.62 percent. This absenteeism has been caused by citizens' alienation from the state's institutions, apathy, and a large number of Honduras living overseas who still appear on the domestic voter lists (close to 20 percent of registered voters live overseas). Even under ideal circumstances, one would have expected to see an abstention rate of at least 45 percent this time around. It is estimated that of the estimated 1.3 million Hondurans that live abroad, only 15,000-20,000 will actually vote. ¶7. (C) President Jose Manuel "Mel" Zelaya has stated that the elections are illegitimate because they are being carried out while the de facto regime remains in power. He has called on his followers not to vote. However, many if not most Hondurans, including those that opposed the coup, view the elections as a pacific solution to the country's crisis. Leaders of the anti-coup resistance movement told Poloff that their followers may organize demonstrations against the elections, but that they will be peaceful. They cautioned, however that they may not be able to control any frustrated followers who resort to violence if provoked. The de facto TEGUCIGALP 00001212 003 OF 004 regime has repeatedly urged Honduran citizens to carry out their patriotic duty by voting. ¶8. (C) UD presidential candidate Cesar Ham told the Ambassador on November 23 that a poll carried out by the UD showed that 66 percent of eligible voters in the capital of Tegucigalpa will vote and that 70 percent of the supporters of independent presidential candidate Carlos H. Reyes, who withdrew on the grounds that elections held with the de facto regime in place could not be legitimate, will turn out to vote. Ham added that he believed that pro-Zelaya members of the Liberal Party would vote despite Zelaya's call for a boycott. Pollster Arturo Corrales told the Ambassador on November 26 that he expected the abstention rate to be approximately the same as in 2005. Guillermo Casco, who served on the Elections Tribunal for 15 years and is the head of an umbrella organization of NGOs working on democracy, told Poloff on November 23 that not voting is nothing new in Honduras and cited mistrust of the electoral system as a major reason. According to Casco, what makes this election different is the proactive call by President Zelaya and his followers for Hondurans not to vote. ¶9. (U) Mother nature may have an effect on voter turnout. The current weather forecast calls for a new cold front reaching Honduras on November 26 and lasting through November 28 or maybe election day, November 29. This cold front should produce low intensity rainfall along the north coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands and extensive cloudiness and wind gusts up to 25 miles per hour in central, western and southern Honduras. Temperatures in the higher mountain areas may descend as low as 53 degrees Fahrenheit. Likely Results -------------- ¶10. (U) A CID-Gallup poll with an error margin of plus or minus 2.8 points was conducted October 13-19 among 1,420 adults located in 16 of the country's 18 departments. It found that National Party presidential candidate Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo led his closest rival, Liberal Party candidate Elvin Santos, by 16 points. The poll also showed that the National Party was likely to win most mayoralties. The poll indicated that most members of the National Party would vote for its presidential candidate while that was not the case with most members of the Liberal Party. Half of those polled said they were likely to vote and 75 percent of those polled said elections will help Honduras emerge from its political crisis. ¶11. (C) In addition to Guillermo Casco, Poloff spoke individually to civil society political analysts Jorge Yllescas, Mauricio Velasco, and Gautama Fonseca November 23-25. Yllescas and Velasco are pro-coup while Fonseca is anti-coup. Casco said Lobo will be elected president because National Party base will turn out to vote in force and they will all vote for Lobo. Velasco also stated that the Nationalists would turn out to vote in large numbers. By contrast, said Casco, not all Liberal Party members will vote and, of those that do, many will not vote for Santos. Yllescas told Poloff that a poll conducted around November 18 indicated that Lobo would emerge the victor by 6 points and that 40 percent of the Honduran population remained undecided. According to Yllescas, not all Nationalists will vote for Lobo. Yllescas said Lobo alienated some in his party because in the aftermath of the coup he did not clarify whether he supported the de facto regime and had supported Zelaya's plan to carry out a poll asking whether there should be a referendum on a constituent assembly. Pollster Arturo Corrales told the Ambassador on November 26 that Lobo is likely to win, but that the Liberal Party is catching up and is starting to think that victory is possible. Corrales noted that 14 mayors who belong to the pro-Zelaya resistance movement have come out in support of Santos in the last few days. Corrales said 35 percent of persons who voted for President Zelaya when he was the Liberal Party presidential candidate will once again vote for the Liberal Party, 35 percent of those who voted for Zelaya will vote for another party in this election, and 30 percent of those who voted for Zelaya will not vote in this election. ¶12. (C) Casco said it is possible that even with a Lobo TEGUCIGALP 00001212 004 OF 004 victory, the National Party may not become the majority party in the Congress. Yllescas predicted that the composition of the Congress would remain largely as is. (Note: In the current Congress, the Liberal Party has 62 seats, the National Party has 55, the Democratic Unification Party has 5, the Christian Democratic Party has 4, and the Social Democratic Innovation and Unity Party has 2. End Note.) Contrary to what the UD polls indicated, both Casco and Yllescas told Poloff that the supporters of former presidential candidate Reyes will not vote. Corrales told the Ambassador that Reyes never reached more than 3 percent nationwide in the polls. Velasco reiterated the CID-Gallup poll finding that the Nationalists will pick up most mayoralties. Embassy Reporting -------------- ¶13. (SBU) The OAS will not send an electoral observation mission and, therefore, the USG will not have election observers. However, this does not preclude the Embassy from accurately reporting on the election. To this end, the Embassy will deploy two-person teams composed of American staff and family members to 16 of the country's 18 departments (in one of the 16 departments only one person will be deployed). These teams will report on what they see by cellular telephone to staff located at the Embassy, who will then transmit the information to the Department. We will also work closely with the NDI/IRI team and credible (moderate) international and domestic observers to provide Washington with the best possible technical information on the election process. LLORENS