PRO-ZELAYA RESISTANCE FEARS ELECTIONS MAY BE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 001203

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI HO
SUBJECT: PRO-ZELAYA RESISTANCE FEARS ELECTIONS MAY BE
VIOLENT

REF: TEGUCIGALPA 1175

Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens for reasons 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary. The pro-Zelaya resistance movement has told
its supporters not to vote in the general election scheduled
for November 29 if President Zelaya is not restored to
office. The resistance does not believe it will be possible
to hold credible elections while the de facto regime remains
in place. They suspect that the regime may carry out
disturbances during the electoral process and then pin the
blame on the resistance. Resistance leaders are concerned
that the country's polarization may provoke violence during
the elections. They said the resistance plans to demonstrate
peacefully, but cautioned that they cannot control all their
members. We believe that while the potential for violence
exists, the overwhelming majority of the Honduran people
oppose violence and those who advocate social conflict will
face mass rejection. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Poloff met on November 18 with pro-Zelaya resistance
leaders: Andres Pavon, President of the Committee for Human
Rights in Honduras (CODEH); Cesar Ham, a congressman who is
the presidential candidate for the Democratic Unification
(UD) party; Marvin Ponce, a congressman who belongs to the UD
party; Rafael Alegria; and Fidel Barahona. Ham said that the
election will not solve the Honduran political crisis.
Alegria told Poloff that the resistance movement opposed
having President Jose Manuel "Mel" Zelaya sign the
Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord, but accepted his decision to do
so.

Calling for Boycott
--------------


3. (C) The resistance movement is urging its supporters not
to vote in the general election scheduled for November 29 if
President Zelaya is not restored to office. The resistance
leadership told Poloff they do not know what position the
resistance would adopt regarding voting if President Zelaya
is restored before November 22. They said restoration
between November 22 and November 29 would make it difficult
for the resistance to support the elections. Ponce told
Poloff that President Zelaya's restitution to office after
the election makes no sense. The resistance leaders said
elections held while the de facto regime is in place will be
fraudulent. Barahona said all state institutions are
controlled by the de facto regime because they were created
while de facto regime leader Roberto Micheletti was President
of the Congress. Barahona accused the three magistrates who
make up the Supreme Elections Tribunal (TSE),the body
responsible for organizing elections, of supporting the June
28 coup and the de facto regime.


4. (C) Barahona stated that Honduras needs a credible
electoral process and that this will not be possible on
November 29. He suggested postponement of the election until
a transparent process is possible to which the international
community can send observers. Barahona added that this
scenario would also provide a dignified exit for the regime.



Elections May Be Violent
--------------


5. (C) The resistance leaders told Poloff that they are
concerned that the polarization and tension that exist in the
country may lead to violence during the elections. Alegria
said resistance members will carry out peaceful
demonstrations and Ham told Poloff that the resistance
movement will not provoke violence. However, Alegria and
Barahona added that the resistance leadership cannot control
its demonstrators. Ponce told Poloff that the resistance
movement is peaceful for now.


6. (C) Ponce said the de facto regime has called up and is
training 5,500 to 10,000 military reservists to be deployed
during the electoral process and that this has never been
done before in a Honduran election. Ponce said these
reservists are being trained "for war" and predicted that the
elections will be violent if President Zelaya is not restored

TEGUCIGALP 00001203 002 OF 002


to office. Barahona accused the de facto regime of planning
to carry out disturbances during the electoral process and
then accuse the resistance of carrying them out. Barahona
said the regime's goal is to stay in power by declaring that
the security situation does not allow the elections to be
carried out. Barahona admitted that the electoral candidates
who support the regime might not accept such a maneuver. Ham
expressed concern that the de facto regime will take action
against the resistance leaders on election day.


7. (C) Comment: Tensions are high between de facto regime
and resistance supporters, with both accusing each other of
planning for violence. However, we note that both sides
publicly repudiate violence and that neither side has any
leaders who advocate or have a history of violence. While we
cannot discount the possibility of limited violence on
elections day, we do not believe it will be widespread or is
likely to affect the results. The likelihood that there will
be an effective boycott is difficult to predict. There is a
vocal movement that supports boycotting the vote in protest
of the coup. Polling data, however, suggests that both coup
supporters and opponents see the elections as the best way to
move Honduras forward, suggesting that many voters will want
to go to the polls on November 29.
LLORENS