PRO-ZELAYA RESISTANCE FEARS ELECTIONS MAY BE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 001203 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI HO SUBJECT: PRO-ZELAYA RESISTANCE FEARS ELECTIONS MAY BE VIOLENT REF: TEGUCIGALPA 1175 Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens for reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary. The pro-Zelaya resistance movement has told its supporters not to vote in the general election scheduled for November 29 if President Zelaya is not restored to office. The resistance does not believe it will be possible to hold credible elections while the de facto regime remains in place. They suspect that the regime may carry out disturbances during the electoral process and then pin the blame on the resistance. Resistance leaders are concerned that the country's polarization may provoke violence during the elections. They said the resistance plans to demonstrate peacefully, but cautioned that they cannot control all their members. We believe that while the potential for violence exists, the overwhelming majority of the Honduran people oppose violence and those who advocate social conflict will face mass rejection. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Poloff met on November 18 with pro-Zelaya resistance leaders: Andres Pavon, President of the Committee for Human Rights in Honduras (CODEH); Cesar Ham, a congressman who is the presidential candidate for the Democratic Unification (UD) party; Marvin Ponce, a congressman who belongs to the UD party; Rafael Alegria; and Fidel Barahona. Ham said that the election will not solve the Honduran political crisis. Alegria told Poloff that the resistance movement opposed having President Jose Manuel "Mel" Zelaya sign the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord, but accepted his decision to do so. Calling for Boycott -------------- ¶3. (C) The resistance movement is urging its supporters not to vote in the general election scheduled for November 29 if President Zelaya is not restored to office. The resistance leadership told Poloff they do not know what position the resistance would adopt regarding voting if President Zelaya is restored before November 22. They said restoration between November 22 and November 29 would make it difficult for the resistance to support the elections. Ponce told Poloff that President Zelaya's restitution to office after the election makes no sense. The resistance leaders said elections held while the de facto regime is in place will be fraudulent. Barahona said all state institutions are controlled by the de facto regime because they were created �0A;while de facto regime leader Roberto Micheletti was President of the Congress. Barahona accused the three magistrates who make up the Supreme Elections Tribunal (TSE),the body responsible for organizing elections, of supporting the June 28 coup and the de facto regime. ¶4. (C) Barahona stated that Honduras needs a credible electoral process and that this will not be possible on November 29. He suggested postponement of the election until a transparent process is possible to which the international community can send observers. Barahona added that this scenario would also provide a dignified exit for the regime. Elections May Be Violent -------------- ¶5. (C) The resistance leaders told Poloff that they are concerned that the polarization and tension that exist in the country may lead to violence during the elections. Alegria said resistance members will carry out peaceful demonstrations and Ham told Poloff that the resistance movement will not provoke violence. However, Alegria and Barahona added that the resistance leadership cannot control its demonstrators. Ponce told Poloff that the resistance movement is peaceful for now. ¶6. (C) Ponce said the de facto regime has called up and is training 5,500 to 10,000 military reservists to be deployed during the electoral process and that this has never been done before in a Honduran election. Ponce said these reservists are being trained "for war" and predicted that the elections will be violent if President Zelaya is not restored TEGUCIGALP 00001203 002 OF 002 to office. Barahona accused the de facto regime of planning to carry out disturbances during the electoral process and then accuse the resistance of carrying them out. Barahona said the regime's goal is to stay in power by declaring that the security situation does not allow the elections to be carried out. Barahona admitted that the electoral candidates who support the regime might not accept such a maneuver. Ham expressed concern that the de facto regime will take action against the resistance leaders on election day. ¶7. (C) Comment: Tensions are high between de facto regime and resistance supporters, with both accusing each other of planning for violence. However, we note that both sides publicly repudiate violence and that neither side has any leaders who advocate or have a history of violence. While we cannot discount the possibility of limited violence on elections day, we do not believe it will be widespread or is likely to affect the results. The likelihood that there will be an effective boycott is difficult to predict. There is a vocal movement that supports boycotting the vote in protest of the coup. Polling data, however, suggests that both coup supporters and opponents see the elections as the best way to move Honduras forward, suggesting that many voters will want to go to the polls on November 29. LLORENS