TFH01: UD PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE STAYS IN RACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 001202 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HO SUBJECT: TFH01: UD PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE STAYS IN RACE REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 1175 ¶B. TEGUCIGALPA 1132 Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens for reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary. The small UD party, which has 120 candidates for congress and 265 candidates for mayor, held an assembly on November 21 at which it decided overwhelmingly not to withdraw its candidates from the general election to be held on November 29. Cesar Ham, the UD's presidential candidate, opposed the June 28 coup d'etat and had publicly threatened to withdraw if President Jose Manuel "Mel" Zelaya were not restored to office before the election. Ham told the Ambassador that approximately 8 UD candidates have already withdrawn from the race and that he expects that only about 5 others will do so. According to the electoral law, the UD would have lost its status as a political party if no UD candidate had participated in the general election. Ham told the Ambassador that he had told President Zelaya in private (please protect) that he would withdraw his candidacy if Zelaya pledged in writing to the United Nations (UN) and the Organization of American States (OAS) not to accept restoration to office and publicly promised the Honduran people not to enter into any deal with the winner of the November 29 presidential race. Ham said Zelaya did not accept. Ham stated that he had unsuccessfully proposed that the anti-coup resistance resist the coup by presenting a unified resistance candidate for president. He also said he had offered that independent candidate Carlos H. Reyes, who was ahead of Ham in the polls before his withdrawal, replace him as the UD's presidential candidate. Ham told the Ambassador he believed that Reyes' rejection prevented a potentially strong showing in the elections that would have transformed them into the country's second political power. Ham believes that a unified slate of the progressive forces with First Lady Xiomara Zelaya as the candidate would have also secured a significant proportion of the anti-coup vote in Honduras. He blames Zelaya's total focus on himself for the loss of this great opportunity for the left in Honduras. Ham's decision to participate is a major blow to Zelaya's campaign to boycott the elections. End Summary. UD Stays in the Race -------------- ¶2. (C) The small, leftist Unification Party (UD) held an assembly on November 21 at which it decided to participate in the general election scheduled for November 29. UD's presidential candidate, Cesar Ham, had publicly threatened to withdraw from the race if President Jose Manuel "Mel" Zelaya were not restored to office before November 29 (see reftel A). Withdrawal from the election would have had dire consequences for the UD since the electoral law provides that a political party loses legality if it does not participate in a general election. Ham told the Ambassador on November 23 that the party assembly was composed of 130 delegates and that approximately 120 attended the November 21 meeting. Ham said the delegates had differing opinions on whether or not the UD should withdraw from the elections, but that the decision to stay in was approved by 85 percent of the delegates. Ham stated that his party's decision was not an easy one and that there had been pressure from many sectors, both within and outside the party, as well as international supporters of the party. Ham said the UD has 120 candidates for congressional seats and 265 candidates for mayor. Ham told the Ambassador that only about 8 UD candidates have withdrawn from the race and that he expects that another 5 will announce their withdrawal in the coming days. Ham said public response to the UD's decision had been favorable, but that he had been strongly criticized by leaders of the pro-Zelaya resistance movement that has called for a boycott of the election. ¶3. (C) Ham told the Ambassador that the UD conducted polling before the November 21 meeting and that the results garnered were an important factor in the party's decision. Ham said the polls showed that 66 percent of residents of the capital of Tegucigalpa will vote. According to Ham, the polls also showed that 70 percent of persons who supported independent candidate Carlos H. Reyes, who pulled out of the race on the grounds that current conditions preclude the holding of credible elections, will vote (see reftel B). Ham added that he believes that members of the Liberal Party who support the resistance will vote. TEGUCIGALP 00001202 002 OF 002 ¶4. (C) Ham told the Ambassador that he promised President Zelaya that he would not campaign until a negotiated agreement to the crisis was signed. He said he told President Zelaya that he would pull out of the race if President Zelaya sent letters to both the UN and the OAS stating that he would not accept restitution under any circumstances and an open letter to the Honduran people pledging that he would make no deal on restitution and/or amnesty with the president-elect. According to Ham, Zelaya demurred. UD Wants a Fair Shake -------------- ¶5. (C) Ham told the Ambassador that he will recognize the electoral results as long as the process is transparent. He added that he knows that the elections will not provide a total solution to the country's political crisis. He expressed concern that the UD will be treated unfairly because of its opposition to the coup d'etat and told the Ambassador that he planned to meet with the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) later in the day to raise this issue. As an example of unfair dealings towards the UD, Ham recounted that on November 22 UD representatives were signaled out and told to leave the warehouse where electoral material was stored on the grounds that it was being prepared for transport. Ham said UD representatives had been present at the warehouse at all previous steps in the preparation of the electoral material. Ham admitted to the Ambassador that he has no chance of being elected president, but said he wants nothing to prevent UD candidates for congressional seats and mayorships from receiving a fair tallying of votes. Reverting the Coup in the Ballot Box -------------- 6.(C) Ham told the Ambassador that three days after the June 28 coup d'etat he told President Zelaya that the best way to revert the coup was using the electoral process. Ham said he told Zelaya that the members of the resistance against the coup should join forces and stand united behind one candidate for president. Ham said he had suggested First Lady Xiomara Castro Zelaya as that candidate because she would have attracted undecided voters who view Ham and Reyes as too radical. Ham said his offer was rejected on the grounds that fraud would inevitably be carried out to prevent a unified resistance candidate from winning. Ham said that he had made an offer to Reyes to take over the presidential candidacy for the UD party because Reyes was five points ahead of Ham in the polls. Ham said that he believes that if Reyes had accepted his proposal, their success at the polls would have transformed them into the second political force in the country. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Ham has made a brave decision against much pressure from the left. The fact that 85 percent of his delegates supported his position is both a testament to his leadership and a reflection of public opinion, apparently across the political spectrum, that elections offer the country the best way out of the political crisis. Ham's decision to participate is a major blow to Zelaya who is seeking to boycott the elections and had urged Ham to withdraw. LLORENS