DROUGHT DAMAGING BUT (SO FAR) NOT DIRE

UNCLAS TEGUCIGALPA 001052 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAGR ECON SENV EAID HO SUBJECT: DROUGHT DAMAGING BUT (SO FAR) NOT DIRE ¶1. (U) Summary: Drought conditions brought on by El Nino are affecting large areas of Honduras, damaging crops and putting the food security of 16,000 families at risk. Agriculture officials indicate that they have enough grain reserves to supply the country's needs through early 2010. However, if there is not sufficient rainfall before the current rainy season ends at the end of October, Honduras may need emergency assistance from donors. Embassy will keep the Department informed as the situation develops. End summary. ¶2. (U) In addition to the political crisis, Honduras is currently experiencing drought conditions in large areas of the country. After rains measuring more than 25% above average last year, rainfall in much of Honduras is expected to be 25% less than average this season. The areas most affected are the southern region of the country, a swath down the center, and to a lesser extent, the north coast. Historical news records show that droughts took place at the end of 1997, 2001, 2005, and now in 2009, giving a strong indication that this is part of a four-year El Nino cycle. Preliminary figures indicate September was drier than normal by about 25%. ¶3. (U) Since most farming in Honduras relies on rain and other surface sources of water, the lower-than-average rainfall this season has already affected crops. There are generally two growing seasons for corn, a main staple in Honduras. The first crop earlier in 2009 was excellent. The second crop, which was planted in August, has either already failed or is very stunted for many of the farmers who planted it in the affected regions. In other cases, farmers have chosen, many with encouragement and seed from the Ministry of Agriculture, to plant beans, which require less water. A study by the World Health Organization indicated that about 16,000 families in the central and southern areas of the country could be at risk of food shortages. ¶4. (U) To avoid food catastrophes, the Ministry of Agriculture, as reported in local press, maintains a strategic reserve of 120 million kilograms of corn and 27 million kilograms of beans. The de facto Minister of Agriculture, Hector Hernandez, explained that when the most recent crops are added to this reserve, this will be enough to last through the first few months of 2010. Arturo Galo, the director of the Office of Agricultural Science and Technology (DICTA),was quoted in the press as concurring with this assessment but pointing out that there would not be enough to export. (Comment: This lack of exports will not only have a negative impact on income, but will cause neighboring countries with food crises caused by the drought, such as Guatemala, to look for other sources of basic grains. End comment.) ¶5. (U) Luis Donaire, president of the National Association of Basic Grain Producers (PROGRANO),told El Heraldo newspaper that he believes the strategic reserves will last until August 2010. He added, "We shouldn't have any problems if we do orderly planning. Unfortunately, in our country we never plan, we're always putting out fires. It's time to start planning now." He also has recommended the use of the reserves to maintain low prices of basic grains, the planting of beans instead of corn this season, and possibly water rationing. ¶6. (SBU) While the de facto government seeks to allay the effects of the drought through crop selecion (beans instead of corn) and strategic grain eserves, other organizations seek longer term soutions. Luis Alvarez Welchez of the Food and Agicultural Organization explained to EconOff how a number of their programs are mitigating the effect of weather fluctuations. Their programs of soi management, prevention of field burning, and us of moisture-retaining ground cover have been very successful in the departments of Lempira and Intibuca during both the heavy rains of La Nina las year, and the lessened rains of this year's El Nio. Unfortunately, he lamented, these successful AO projects have not translated into government oil management strategies. ¶7. (U) If there is sufficient rainfall in the final weeks of the curent rainy season, which ends at about the end of October, Honduras is unlikely to require emergenc assistance from the donor community. One advantage of the El Nino weather pattern is that it makes hurricanes and other severe storms less likely (though still a possibility). LLORENS