TFH01: GUAYMURAS DIALOGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 001048

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HO
SUBJECT: TFH01: GUAYMURAS DIALOGUE

Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens for reasons 1.4 (b & d)


1. (C) Summary. The commissions representing the de facto
regime and President Jose Manuel "Mel" Zelaya at the
Guaymuras dialogue reached agreement on all articles of the
San Jose Accord on October 14, which would require Congress
to decide on restoration of officials to their pre-coup
positions. However, de facto regime leader Roberto
Micheletti came under pressure to reject the agreement from
his supporters, fearing the formation of a congressional bloc
in support of the agreement and Zelaya's restitution. In
response de facto commission members on October 15 shifted
position and called for the agreement to be referred to the
Supreme Court rather than the National Congress. According
to OAS negotiators, President Zelaya was ready to announce
the breakdown of the talks. The Ambassador successfully
urged Zelaya not to do so and suggested introduction of
language that the agreement be subject to the review and
approval of the National Congress, with consultation on
judicial aspects of the agreement with the Supreme Court.
Negotiations are set to resume the afternoon of October 15.
End Summary.


2. (C) The commissions representing the de facto regime and
President Jose Manuel "Mel" Zelaya at the Guaymuras
dialogue reached a notional agreement on all articles of the
San Jose Accord, including the article regarding
restitution of pre-coup officials, including President
Zelaya, late on October 14. Rumors of a deal began
circulating, including reports that Micheletti would step
down. Micheletti supporters, many from the business sector
and civil society organizations, went to see Micheletti to
urge him not to do so. Micheletti issued a statement noting
that progress had been made in the talks, but that no final
agreement had been reached.


3. (C) Negotiations resumed the morning of October 15 and the
regime commission tabled a position that the agreement should
not be referred to the National Congress for consideration,
but should be sent to the Supreme Court for its review. This
significant shift in position seems to reflect concern by
Micheletti that a congressional bloc is being created
composed of the National Party and dissident Liberal Party
members that would support the San Jose Accord, including
restoration of President Zelaya. On October 14, National
Party congressman Rodolfo Irias Navas introduced a
resolution, which was approved by the Congress, stating that
the Congress welcomed the efforts being made to reach a
political agreement to ensure peace and social stability and
pledging to support, in the context of its constitutional
authority, whatever actions are necessary for the
implementation of the agreement.


4. (C) The shift in the regime position led to a halt in
negotiations, with both sides retreating to consult with
their leaders. We understand that the October 15 morning
meeting was tense with raised voices and banging of the
table. Organization of American States (OAS) Special Envoy
John Biehl told the Ambassador that he feared that
President Zelaya was planning to announce the collapse of the
talks and accuse Micheletti of failing to negotiate in good
faith. The Ambassador spoke to President Zelaya by telephone
and urged him not to break off negotiations. The Ambassador
told Zelaya that a deal is still possible if language is
proposed providing that the agreement will be subject to the
review and approval of the National Congress, but that the
Congress will consult on judicial aspects of the agreement
with the Supreme Court. The Ambassador noted to Zelaya that
the political parties in the Congress can make the political
decision to implement the agreement in consultation with, but
not the control of, the judicial branch. Zelaya agreed not
to break off negotiations and said he would instruct his
negotiators to find a way to move the negotiations forward.


5. (C) Former President Carlos Flores is urging the
Micheletti team to agree to compromise language on the
point in the agreement regarding restitution of President
Zelaya. Negotiations are set to resume the afternoon of
October 15.


6. (C) Comment. It seems that Micheletti's negotiators were

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more forward leaning than the members of Micheletti's inner
circle, who remain wary of an agreement. We averted the
collapse of the talks and bought some time. It is imperative
that the two commissions initial a deal in order to maintain
momentum.
LLORENS