TFH01: GUAYMURAS DIALOGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 001048 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HO SUBJECT: TFH01: GUAYMURAS DIALOGUE Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens for reasons 1.4 (b & d) ¶1. (C) Summary. The commissions representing the de facto regime and President Jose Manuel "Mel" Zelaya at the Guaymuras dialogue reached agreement on all articles of the San Jose Accord on October 14, which would require Congress to decide on restoration of officials to their pre-coup positions. However, de facto regime leader Roberto Micheletti came under pressure to reject the agreement from his supporters, fearing the formation of a congressional bloc in support of the agreement and Zelaya's restitution. In response de facto commission members on October 15 shifted position and called for the agreement to be referred to the Supreme Court rather than the National Congress. According to OAS negotiators, President Zelaya was ready to announce the breakdown of the talks. The Ambassador successfully urged Zelaya not to do so and suggested introduction of language that the agreement be subject to the review and approval of the National Congress, with consultation on judicial aspects of the agreement with the Supreme Court. Negotiations are set to resume the afternoon of October 15. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The commissions representing the de facto regime and President Jose Manuel "Mel" Zelaya at the Guaymuras dialogue reached a notional agreement on all articles of the San Jose Accord, including the article regarding restitution of pre-coup officials, including President Zelaya, late on October 14. Rumors of a deal began circulating, including reports that Micheletti would step down. Micheletti supporters, many from the business sector and civil society organizations, went to see Micheletti to urge him not to do so. Micheletti issued a statement noting that progress had been made in the talks, but that no final agreement had been reached. ¶3. (C) Negotiations resumed the morning of October 15 and the regime commission tabled a position that the agreement should not be referred to the National Congress for consideration, but should be sent to the Supreme Court for its review. This significant shift in position seems to reflect concern by Micheletti that a congressional bloc is being created composed of the National Party and dissident Liberal Party members that would support the San Jose Accord, including restoration of President Zelaya. On October 14, National Party congressman Rodolfo Irias Navas introduced a resolution, which was approved by the Congress, stating that the Congress welcomed the efforts being made to reach a political agreement to ensure peace and social stability and pledging to support, in the context of its constitutional authority, whatever actions are necessary for the implementation of the agreement. ¶4. (C) The shift in the regime position led to a halt in negotiations, with both sides retreating to consult with their leaders. We understand that the October 15 morning meeting was tense with raised voices and banging of the table. Organization of American States (OAS) Special Envoy John Biehl told the Ambassador that he feared that President Zelaya was planning to announce the collapse of the talks and accuse Micheletti of failing to negotiate in good faith. The Ambassador spoke to President Zelaya by telephone and urged him not to break off negotiations. The Ambassador told Zelaya that a deal is still possible if language is proposed providing that the agreement will be subject to the review and approval of the National Congress, but that the Congress will consult on judicial aspects of the agreement with the Supreme Court. The Ambassador noted to Zelaya that the political parties in the Congress can make the political decision to implement the agreement in consultation with, but not the control of, the judicial branch. Zelaya agreed not to break off negotiations and said he would instruct his negotiators to find a way to move the negotiations forward. ¶5. (C) Former President Carlos Flores is urging the Micheletti team to agree to compromise language on the point in the agreement regarding restitution of President Zelaya. Negotiations are set to resume the afternoon of October 15. ¶6. (C) Comment. It seems that Micheletti's negotiators were TEGUCIGALP 00001048 002 OF 002 more forward leaning than the members of Micheletti's inner circle, who remain wary of an agreement. We averted the collapse of the talks and bought some time. It is imperative that the two commissions initial a deal in order to maintain momentum. LLORENS