GEORGIA: CONTROVERSY OVER MAY 31 ELECTIONS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000982 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV KBDS RU GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: CONTROVERSY OVER MAY 31 ELECTIONS IN SOUTH OSSETIA REF: MOSCOW 1403 Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) Summary and comment. On the eve of May 31 parliamentary elections in South Ossetia, controversy has erupted over the electoral system and establishment of political parties by the "de facto" administration. While Russian officials and South Ossetian "de facto" administration officials claim that the upcoming elections will be "free and fair," South Ossetian opposition figures and Georgia's Head of the Administration of South Ossetia, Dmitri Sanakoev, protest that the system is corrupt. Based on conversations with Sanakoev and according to Russian, South Ossetian, and Georgian press, it is doubtful that the elections will have any semblance of being free and fair. Furthermore, Sanakoev said that he believes the administrative boundary will be permanently closed around the time of the election, forcing ethnic Georgians to choose a side. End summary and comment. ELECTION LOGISTICS ¶2. (SBU) The fifth parliamentary elections in South Ossetia are planned for May 31. This will be the first election to take place in South Ossetia since the August conflict and subsequent declaration of independence, and a party-list proportional representation system will be used. In order to be represented, a party will need a to meet a seven percent threshold. The four registered parties vying for the 34 seats are Eduard Kokoity's Unity Party, chaired by Zurab Revazovich Kokoev; Communist Party of South Ossetia, chaired by Stanislav Yakovlevish Kochiev; People's Party of South Ossetia, chaired by Kazimir Kazbekovich Pliev; and the Fatherland Socialist Party, chaired by Vyacheslav Fedorovich Gobozov. According to Russian and South Ossetian press reporting, 88 polling stations will be opened in South Ossetia, six in North Ossetia, and one in Moscow. "Ambassador" of South Ossetia to Russia, Dmitri Medoyev, said that about 45,000 people are registered to vote and invited foreign journalists to attend and report on the elections. "FREE AND FAIR" OR FRAUDULENT? ¶3. (C) Opposition leaders have criticized the way that the election system is being run, specifically how parties and candidates register to take part in the election. Sanakoev alleged to poloffs that none of the parties have funding and all parties are actually fake. According to Sanakoev, they were created just before the election and will cease to exist just after the election. An example of the fraud embedded in this election is that South Ossetia's "Election Commission" refused to register the original People's Party ballot, headed by Roland Kelekhsayev. Kelekhsayev and his party convened a congress on April 9, during which 10 candidates were selected. Instead of registering this ballot, the Commission registered a second party of the same name established just days earlier, headed by Kazimir Pliyev, a supposed supporter of Kokoity. Kelekhsayev appealed to Russian President Medvedev to intervene, however Medvedev did not respond. Furthermore, the Commission registered only nine of the ten candidates on Fatherland's ballot list, specifically excluding the chairman, Vyacheslav Gobozov. Party members claim this was done because no Kokoity supporters were on their ballot. ¶4. (C) The website of the South Ossetian "Ministry of the Press and Mass Media," shows the current popularity rating of the Communist Party at 28 percent, followed by Fatherland with 18 percent, Unity, the current "president's" party, with Qwith 18 percent, Unity, the current "president's" party, with only 17 percent, and People's Party at 13 percent. According to opposition leaders, these figures show that if there would be a free and fair election, and if Kelekhsayev's party were allowed to participate, Kokoity's Unity Party would likely win no more than half the seats. There appears to be little doubt, however, that Unity will in fact win a parliamentary majority. In addition, opposition figures have accused local authorities of inflating both the number of registered voters by almost three times, to over 45,0000, as well as the number of polling stations, in order to falsify results in an easier fashion. Sanakoev corroborated this information, stating that before the August conflict there were about 33,000 eligible voters in South Ossetia, now, he added, there are only half that number. According to Sanakoev, 22,000 ethnic South Ossetians from the Kakheti region, who never lived in South Ossetia and left Georgia for North Ossetia, were put on the voting list and polls will be opened in North Ossetia in order to inflate numbers. WHAT ABOUT THE PEOPLE? ¶5. (C) According to Sanakoev, most South Ossetians are TBILISI 00000982 002 OF 002 throwing their fate in with the Russians, and that is what they will consider when deciding how to vote on election day. Although most South Ossetians do not support Kokoity as a leader, they will vote for his party as it is most closely aligned with Russia. Sanakoev predicts that few ethnic Georgians will vote, as only a small number are still living in South Ossetia, and there are no polling stations being set up on undisputed Georgian territory. According to Sanakoev, ethnic Georgians with ties to South Ossetia will, however, face a tough decision on election day - they will be forced to choose between the northern and southern side of the administrative boundary. Sanakoev said he believes the administrative boundary will be closed around election day and ethnic Georgians will no longer be permitted to cross back and forth. This would have an immediate detrimental impact on both the South Ossetian and Georgian population in terms of resource availability, return of IDPs, and confidence-building. TEFFT