GEORGIA: WINTER LULL IN INCIDENTS ABRUPTLY ENDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000096 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS KBTS RU GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: WINTER LULL IN INCIDENTS ABRUPTLY ENDS REF: A. 08 TBILISI 2495 ¶B. HTTP://WWW.MFA.GOV.GE/INDEX.PHP?LANG_ID=ENG&S EC_I- D=36&INFO_ID=8778 Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary and comment. After a few weeks of relative calm over the holidays -- which saw several attacks, but no injuries -- a number of serious incidents occurred along the administrative boundaries with South Ossetia and Abkhazia in recent days. On January 16 a Georgan police officer was murdered in Knolevi, outside South Ossetia; on January 18 a Georgian police officer was wounded near Khurcha, outside Abkhazia; and on January 19 two Georgian police officers were wounded in Dvani, outside South Ossetia. The Georgian government is concerned that Russian forces may have perpetrated some of the attacks and plans to suggest to European missions that the EU Monitoring Mission (EUMM) be strengthened, either with increased numbers or weapons. Although the Georgian side has shown remarkable restraint in not responding to these attacks in recent months, they did return fire in the January 18 and 19 incidents, and it is becoming harder for them to refrain from defending themselves. Considering the February 15 end of UNOMIG's mandate and the February 18 end of the OSCE monitoring mission, with no immediate agreement permitting the continuation of either yet in sight, the Georgian request for additional help is understandable. End summary and comment. "CALM" BEFORE THE STORM ¶2. (SBU) All three monitoring missions -- the EUMM, OSCE, and UNOMIG -- have noted an absence of serious incidents in recent weeks, attributing the relative quiet to both the holidays and the cold weather. This sense of "quiet" can only be defined by the lack of injuries, however; attacks have continued. In all these instances, post is unaware of cases in which the Georgian side has returned fire. On the night of January 13-14, a number of rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) and small-arms fire were directed at a Georgian Interior Ministry post near Khurcha from the Abkhaz side of the administrative boundary; no one was injured. Likewise on January 11 an explosive device, possibly an RPG, and machine-gun and small-arms fire were directed from the South Ossetian side of the administrative boundary at a Georgian Interior Ministry post in Zemo Nikozi; no one was injured. Some property damage was sustained by an Interior Ministry post at Ganmukhuri on January 8 in an attack involving roughly 15 automatic grenades and small-arms fire; no one was injured. On January 4, an Interior Ministry post in Ganmukhuri also came under attack, possibly by grenades and small-arms fire; no one was injured. THE STORM ¶3. (SBU) At 10:00 A.M. on January 16, an OSCE patrol visited a Georgian Interior Ministry post in Knolevi, which is between 500 and 800 meters from the South Ossetian administrative boundary southwest of Tskhinvali. The monitors heard a single "muffled shot" and saw a police officer standing on the outside porch fall to the ground. The Georgian side did not return fire. After taking steps to protect themselves, the monitors then saw that 27-year-old Mamuka Kakhniashvili had taken a single shot directly to the heart and likely died instantly. They concluded that a silenced sniper rifle could have been used in the attack. Interior Ministry investigators later told them that the shot QInterior Ministry investigators later told them that the shot was likely taken from 200-250 meters away, and a 7.62mm bullet was used. The Interior Ministry informed post that two Russian MI-8 helicopters, as well as a Russian "Tiger" all-terrain vehicle, were seen in the area, and suggested that Russian forces may have been behind the attack. The OSCE did not observe the helicopters, but did receive reports of them in the area afterwards, and suggested that Russian forces may have arrived to defuse tensions. ¶4. (SBU) At 5:00 A.M. on January 18, UNOMIG reported one RPG and gunfire were directed at a Georgian Interior Ministry post near Khurcha, on the Abkhaz administrative boundary; Georgian officers returned fire. One police officer was slightly wounded in the arm, either by shrapnel or a bullet. ¶5. (SBU) At 5:00 P.M. on January 19, the Interior Ministry confirmed two of its vehicles -- a pickup truck and a COBRA armored vehicle -- came under sustained fire while traveling near Dvani, on the South Ossetian administrative boundary southwest of Tskhinvali, and the Georgian officers returned TBILISI 00000096 002 OF 002 fire. The OSCE determined that the attack originated in the vicinity of Veleebi, northwest of Dvani on the Ossetian side of the boundary; that a machine gun was likely used; and that two Georgian officers were wounded. The driver of the pickup received a serious wound in shoulder, and one other officer, who was outside the vehicles, received a minor wound in the leg. The Ministry reported that a "Tiger" vehicle was also seen in the vicinity in this incident and again suggested that Russian forces may have perpetrated the attack. GOVERNMENT SEEKS INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE ¶6. (C) Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Alexander Nalbandov summoned the DCM on January 20 to express concern about these recent incidents. He also indicated that the government intends to summon representatives of all 16 European missions resident in Tbilisi to deliver a similar message and to request that the EUMM strengthen its mission in Georgia. In particular, he suggested that the EUMM should increase the number of monitors, or arm them. The Georgian Foreign Ministry also released a public statement protesting Russia's aggressive acts (ref B). COMMENT: IS THE "RESPITE" OVER? ¶7. (C) Although even some Georgian officials expected the holidays would provide a certain rest from the violence (ref A),the shooting never really stopped, and now it seems the targeting has become deliberate and malicious again. Kakhniashvili's murder is particularly worrisome; a single shot from a possibly silenced weapon at a few hundred yards that hit the target directly in the heart is not the work f a drunken militiaman, but of a focused professional killer. Post has consistently urged the Georgian side to resist provocation and avoid escalating the violence, and the lack of response to most recent attacks, including on January 16, indicates the Georgian side has tried hard to follow that advice. Georgian officers did return fire on January 18 and 19, however; when under sustained attack, it is understandably difficult for police officers to refrain from defending themselves. Georgia's appeal to the international community reflects the seriousness of these attacks and the government's recognition of the difficulty of withstanding them without outside help, especially in the face of a lack of international agreement on the continuation of both UNOMIG and OSCE missions, both of which face closure next month. End comment. TEFFT