GEORGIA: PROTESTS GEARING UP FOR MAY 26

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000945 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: PROTESTS GEARING UP FOR MAY 26 REF: TBILISI 937 Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: Protests remained small on May 20. Utsnobi (Giorgi Gachechiladze) performed a rally concert in Batumi to kick off the non-parliamentary opposition's plan to bring "all of Georgia" to Tbilisi for a May 26 rally (independence day parade). Post heard payments to protesters have recently increased from 40-50 lari a night to 70 lari a night. David Gamkrelidze (Alliance - Republicans) was involved in a brief scuffle with police after a car registered to his security guard was allegedly stopped and impounded for speeding and reckless driving. Gamkrelidze and Nino Burjanadze (Democratic Movement - United Georgia) described the event as a "new wave of terror". Traffic police confiscated some 60 cars involved with blocking the airport road on May 20. Non-parliamentary leaders blocked the two river roads for 40 minutes on May 21, as a result. Pollster Jeremy Rosner briefed the Ambassador privately on his protest-related polling data, which showed that while ruling party numbers remain low, Saakashvili is still enjoying 65% approval ratings and Alasania's popularity numbers appear to have increased as a result of the protests. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Comment: The apparent increase in payments to protesters in the lead up to March 26 tends to indicate the non-parliamentary opposition is placing its bets on the planned Independence Day rally to be a game changer. Other than preparing for the March 26 rally, the non-parliamentary opposition seems to be content maintaining a holding pattern. Meanwhile, the Rosner polling data tends to conform to previous focus group data and anecdotal evidence that the government's restrained reaction to the protests are helping Saakashvili's rating and diminishing the non-parliamentary opposition. Interestingly, Rosner's numbers seem to correspond to our view that a large portion of the Georgian electorate who is neither in the UNM nor non-parliamentary opposition camps is looking for somebody to take a measured approach and engage in dialogue. The current perception appears to be that Alasania can fill that role and likely explains his increase in popularity. If Alasania breaks and engages in dialogue, he might find very few, if any, of his non-parliamentary allies joining him, but a potentially sizable number of the general electorate ready, willing, and able to support him and his efforts. End Comment. Protests Meager - Gamkrelidze Involved In Scuffle ¶3. (C) A group of non-parliamentary leaders headed by Utsnobi and Levan Gachechiladze gave a concert in Batumi on May 20 to kick off their "march on Tbilisi". A small group of protesters remained in front of Parliament in Tbilisi. More concerts are scheduled in western Georgia in the lead up to May 26. Highlighting the growing frustration and split among the non-parliamentary opposition, Kakha Kukava (Conservatives) announced that the non-parliamentary opposition needs to decide if it will engage in dialogue or more radical actions, as uncertainty and indecision were destroying the momentum of the protests. Meanwhile, rumor on the street has the payment for staying overnight increasing to 70 lari. An Embassy contact, who has a friend staying in the cells confirmed price increases. While anecdotal, the individual staying in the cells is not an opposition supporter, says at night he gives his passport to a non-parliamentary opposition representative, then collects it in the morning to receive payment. This individual estimated Qin the morning to receive payment. This individual estimated that 100% of those currently at the protests were being compensated. (Embassy Comment: The increase in payments likely corresponds to the non-parliamentary opposition's focus on a large turnout on May 26. End Comment.) ¶4. (C) At roughly 10am on May 20, patrol police stopped Gamkrelidze's bodyguard who was allegedly driving well beyond the speed limit and recklessly. Gamkrelidze said that although the car was registered to his bodyguard, the car is actually his, and the traffic stop was a result of political retribution. Post spoke with Gamkrelidze directly who offered a confused and unclear version of events. According to press reports and news footage, Gamkrelidze heard about the traffic stop and immediately proceeded to the impound lot, sat in the patrol car and refused to leave. After sitting in the car for an hour, Gamkrelidze was removed from the patrol car a brief scuffle ensued. Gamkrelidze alleged that the incident was only one in a massive MoIA crackdown but, as of now, no other incidents have been reported. Nino Burjanadze called the incident "political terror". According to the press, Burjanadze also objected to the recent stopping by patrol police of her son for a minor traffic violation. The MoIA for its part called Gamkrelidze's version of events a "complete falsehood". TBILISI 00000945 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) The traffic police temporarily seized 60 vehicles that blocked the airport road on May 19. The non-parliamentary opposition gave the GoG a deadline to release the vehicles and threatened to close off main highways if the GoG does not comply and followed through on their threat, closing the river roads for roughly 40 minutes on Thursday afternoon, May 21. MoIA representatives told Poloff that the vehicles have been available to be picked up. According to the MoIA, owners only need to present their documents of ownership and pay the administrative fine. Parliamentary Opposition - Quietly Moving Forward on Reform Agenda ¶6. (C) The Christian Democratic Party, Paata Davitaia (We Ourselves),and MP Gia Tortladze announced that they agreed that a draft of the new constitution should be prepared by December 31, 2009 and work should start immediately. The group said that although Saakashvili had offered the chairmanship of the constitutional committee to an agreed upon opposition figure, the parliamentary minority group said they intended to nominate a well-respected non-partisan legal expert to chair the commission. Possible nominees included former chairpersons of the Constitutional Court, Avtandil Demetrashvili and Joni Khetsuriani. Rosner Briefs Ambassador ¶7. (C) Jeremy Rosner of the political consulting firm Quinlan, Greenburg, and Rosner which is under contract with the UNM briefed the Ambassador privately on the latest polling numbers that he has prepared for the Government (please fully protect this proprietary information). In general, previous drops in popularity for Saakashvili and the UNM had leveled out with Saakashvili's personal job approval rating at 65%. A hypothetical presidential poll gives Saakashvili vote in the high 30s, Alasania around 15% with Giorgi Targamadze (Christian Democratic Movement) slightly behind Alasania. Burjanadze's numbers were the lowest among those polled. Rosner attributed Alasania's numbers to him finding a temporary sweet spot, engaging in protests has not damaged him politically, and his more reasonable rhetoric has set him apart from the other non-parliamentary leaders. Saakashvili and the GoG are also getting credit for reaching out to the non-parliamentary opposition, and showing patience with the protests. According to Rosner, Targamadze has lost a little ground for being too passive and having been generally sidelined during the protests. Few view the protests as being successful, and the poll shows that the public has a general negative reaction towards them. Georgians view their individual economic situation as improving slightly, up three percent from last poll, and now view security and stability as their major concern. The poll also reflects the large difference of opinion between Tbilisi and the rest of the country where Saakashvili's numbers are up as a whole but down 11% in Tbilisi. Rosner believed the key issue for Saakashvili and the GoG was to make good on promises of increased democracy. TEFFT