GEORGIA: PROTESTS QUIET OVER THE WEEKEND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000932 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: PROTESTS QUIET OVER THE WEEKEND REF: TBILISI 920 Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: Only about 1000 protesters showed up on Saturday and Sunday in front of Parliament. The non-parliamentary opposition announced its plans to hold rallies in all of Georgia to prove to President Saakashvili that the whole country demanded his resignation. The non-parliamentary opposition said it plans to organize over 60,000 marchers on May 26, Georgian Independence Day. EU representative Peter Semneby met with a number of non-parliamentary opposition leaders who, according to Semneby, have moderated their demands but want a GoG concession on some kind of early elections. Semneby also reported that the non-parliamentary opposition said they hoped to respond to the GoG's latest offer of dialogue either Monday, May 18 or Tuesday, May 19. On Friday, May 15, Poloff presented a list of accusations of violence to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The MoIA agreed to provide a status report as soon as possible. Also on May 15, eight business associations gathered members to highlight the impact the protests, and the global economic crisis, were having on business in Georgia. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Comment: The non-parliamentary opposition appears to have come to more or less a consensus that their demand for Saakashvili's resignation has little resonance. While they seem to have moderated their demands, at least privately. The non-parliamentary opposition still has no consensus on the way ahead; not wanting to escalate protests, but also unwilling to take the GoG's offer on the table. Finding both options unpalatable and looking to possibly increase their bargaining power, the non-parliamentary opposition is poised to try to raise a large protest march centered around May 26. While non-parliamentary opposition leaders remain divided, there are small signs that momentum is pushing the group towards negotiations, mostly as a means for the non-parliamentary opposition to find a face saying way out of the current stalemate. End Comment. Semneby Meets With Non-parliamentary Opposition ¶3. (C) Peter Semneby met with the non-parliamentary opposition during the May 16-17. Semneby said that he saw a slight shift in the opposition's tone. He specifically noted that Levan Gachechiladze appeared to be taking a more constructive tact, and that hard-liner Salome Zourabichvili (Georgia's Way) had recognized that the non-parliamentary opposition leaders would be politically dead if they did not get something out of the rallies. Semneby told the Ambassador that the non-parliamentary opposition was looking for something tangible to save face. The non-parliamentary opposition's latest idea was that the GoG agree publicly to pre-term parliamentary elections. Gachechiladze told Semneby that the non-parliamentary opposition would publicly release its response to the GoG's proposals on Monday, May 18 or Tuesday, May 19. ¶4. (C) Semneby said a number of non-parliamentary opposition leaders had asked him about the possibility of arranging a meeting outside of Georgia between the non-parliamentary opposition and the GoG. He reported that the opposition said they wanted to meet outside of the polarizing atmosphere in Georgia, but Semneby was unclear what they wanted to discuss. The Ambassador expressed his skepticism about what a meeting outside of Georgia would accomplish and whether the GoG would even agree, noting that it was important for the parties to work out a solution to the impasse themselves. Semneby replied that the meeting Qthe impasse themselves. Semneby replied that the meeting idea was only a concept and agreed that any such meeting should not be used for the non-parliamentary opposition to try to rope the EU or US in as mediators or delay the process. Semneby did not know the GoG's position on a public commitment to parliamentary elections. Semneby had no meetings with GoG officials, some of whom have privately expressed frustration to the Ambassador that Semneby's frequent visits play into the hands of the most radical elements. Semneby is scheduled to return on Thursday, May 21. More Protests Planned - Unity Reiterated ¶5. (C) Publicly, protest organizers announced their intention to hold more "serious" protest rallies. Rallies are scheduled to be held in Batumi, Kutaisi, Khashuri, Gori, and Mtskheta with the culmination of the effort to draw 60,000 or more protesters to Rustaveli Avenue for a May 26, Independence Day protest. Meanwhile, non-parliamentary opposition leaders are downplaying talks of a split in their ranks and sticking to their demands that Saakashvili resign. Irakli Alasania (Alliance) said that all the non-parliamentary opposition had the same goal; the resignation of Saakashvili and a change of Government. Nino TBILISI 00000932 002 OF 002 Burjanadze (Democratic Movement - United Georgia),however, called dialogue between Saakashvili and the non-parliamentary opposition "senseless" adding that only Saakashvili's resignation was an acceptable outcome to the current situation. More Suttlebutt on Government - Non-parliamentary Opposition Meeting ¶6. (C) An Embassy contact, who did not attend the meeting, but had long discussions with those who did, told Poloff that during the non-parliamentary opposition's meeting with President Saakashvili, the Georgian President left no doubt that he felt he had the upper hand. Apparently after listening patiently to Zourabichvili demanding his resignation, Saakashvili responded with what was described as a 15 minute, uninterrupted blast aimed at the non-parliamentary opposition. The participant believed that the non-parliamentary opposition had earlier convinced themselves they had Saakashvili at least mildly spooked, but left the meeting severely disabused of that notion. Allegedly, Saakashvili told them what their polls numbers were versus his since the protests began. He went on to dismiss the protests as their "personal political crisis", telling them that paying a bunch of people to sit on Rustaveli is a sign of weakness, not strength stressing even they (the non-parliamentary opposition) knew how ridiculous and pathetic they looked. According to our source, Alasania, Gachechiladze, and Kakha Shartava (National Forum) all sat with their heads downs and did not respond. Allegedly, Zourabichvili tried to respond but was told by Gachechiladze to stay mum. Highlighting the fractured nature of the opposition, once discussions began on the government's proposal, Shartava allegedly told Saakashvili that he could not criticize the president's decision to kick Zourabichvili out of his government. Shartava suggested that if Saakashvili took her back, he (Shartava) would view that as a trust building measure. According to the participant, all participants from both sides except Zourabichvili struggled not to laugh. Business Community Reacts ¶7. (C) On May 15, eight business associations, including the Georgian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the American Chamber of Commerce, and the International Chamber of Commerce, gathered to discuss the worsening economic situation. Many in attendance highlighted the very negative impact the month-long protests have had on business and investor confidence. While the group contained both opposition and government supporters, the participants coalesced around their frustrations that all political forces were holding the country, and by default the business community, hostage. Several attendees pointed out that the negative impact of the protests and political instability was made all the worse given the on-going global economic crisis. The groups agreed to continue joint discussions, in particular to focus on ways to cooperate to push the business agenda in a country so focused on politics to the detriment of all else. Taking advantage of this gathering, Saakashvili also issued public remarks that the protests have "severely damaged" the Georgian economy. MoIA to Provide Status on Criminal Cases ¶8. (C) On Friday, May 15, Poloff met with the Deputy Head of Operations at the Ministry of Internal Affairs to discuss ongoing investigations into violence in connection with the protests. Poloff turned over the Embassy's list of allegations and expressed our desire to see the investigations proceed in a normal, transparent manner. Poloff explained that the Embassy's goal was to track the QPoloff explained that the Embassy's goal was to track the allegations and MoIA's response in a systematic manner. The MoIA official said that he was aware that the Ambassador and others had raised cases on multiple occasions with the MoIA, and expressed his willingness to provide the Embassy with an ongoing status report as soon as possible. Per Polchief's previous discussion with the Head of the Analytical Department, Shota Utiashvili, Poloff and the MoIA official agreed to be to respective contact points to raise issues concerning protest related violence. TEFFT