GEORGIA: PROTESTS - SOME BLUSTER, LITTLE ACTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000909 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: PROTESTS - SOME BLUSTER, LITTLE ACTION REF: TBILISI 0906 Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: A small crowd of 2000-2500 appeared in front of Parliament Tuesday May, 12 for what was scheduled to be a major announcement on the non-parliamentary opposition's new action plan in response to their meeting with Saakashvili. No announcement of blocking roads or other near term actions was made. Levan Gachechiladze said that on May 26, (Georgian Independence Day) the non-parliamentary opposition would gather 100,000 protesters to block the traditional military parade on Rustaveli avenue. Meanwhile, Irakli Alasania (Alliance) stated that although there were disagreements between the non-parliamentary opposition and the GoG, dialogue was needed. The American Chamber of Commerce issued a statement calling for dialogue stating that businesses are suffering from blocked roads and ongoing protests. Speaker David Bakradze is scheduled to hold a diplomatic corps briefing on the GoG's reform plans on the afternoon of Wednesday, May 13. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Comment: The non-parliamentary opposition backtracked significantly on its promises to cripple the country with road blockages and expanded protests, despite issuing defiant statements. Shifting their focus to disrupt a national holiday two weeks away seems more like a last ditch effort to provoke some sort of confrontation than a part of a coherent strategy. For the time being, the GoG still seems perfectly content to allow the protesters to block Rustaveli Avenue, stop the annual parade, and suffer the negativ political fallout that is sure to ensue. Meanwhile, non-parliamentary leaders face what has to be an unpalatable choice for many to negotiate or continue street action which is much more likely to lead to their own political irrelevance than Saakashvili's resignation. End Comment. The Opposition Considers Its Options ¶3. (C) According to Alasania, the non-parliamentary group intended to meet to discuss its response to Saakashvili's proposals. Apparently, Alasania did not attend the meeting and Post is unaware of any concrete outcome other than the non-parliamentary opposition met for four hours. Speaker Bakradze told the Ambassador he was unclear as to what was transpiring. The non-parliamentary opposition has at least temporarily shelved its plans to block major highways and ports of entry. Instead, they issued statements about organizing 100,000 people to block plans to celebrate Georgian Independence Day festivities on May 26. (Embassy Comment: Alasania told the Ambassador that a group headed by Nino Burjanadze hoped for conflict, even violent conflict on May 26. End Comment.) A clearly frustrated Levan Gachechiladze said that protesters would gather at Paichadze National Stadium which holds 60,000 so skeptics could not question their numbers. (Embassy Comment: Post finds that the non-parliamentary opposition seems to believe their often wildly exaggerated protests numbers. Gachechiladze's comment seems to echo the frustration that independent observers do not agree. End Comment.) Bakradze expressed his confusion as to Gachechiladze's position, saying that it was his impression that Gachechiladze was leaning towards negotiations. ¶4. (C) Press reports claimed that the GoG planned to clear the cells on May 16 which led to a fiery response by Eka Beselia who said force would be met with force. (Embassy QBeselia who said force would be met with force. (Embassy Note: Although the press reported the statement, we have no indications that the GoG is planning any action. End Note.) The non-parliamentary opposition has applied to extend its protest permit to at least May 26, the answer is still pending with the Mayor's office but is expected on May 13. As of now, the non-parliamentary opposition has shifted its strategy to focus on May 26 possibly to force some sort of street conflict. The logic behind the strategy is somewhat curious considering that Saakashvili explicitly told the non-parliamentary opposition (according to both Alasania and Bakradze) that he would take no action against the protesters, though it may be a stalling tactic to buy more time to consider a response to Saakashvili's offer of dialogue. AmCham Speaks Up ¶5. (C) AmCham-Georgia, which had been reluctant to comment on the ongoing situation, issued a statement calling for dialogue but said that "(r)esidents of Tbilisi and visitors to the city have been inconvenienced by the blocking of major traffic arteries since April 9, and businesses are suffering from both the direct effects of these blockades and from the TBILISI 00000909 002 OF 002 picture of political uncertainty and instability that they present to partners, customers and investors." The statement went on to say that "(w)e encourage both sides to demonstrate their respect for the Georgian people, and their concern for the viability of the country's economy and institutions, by immediately allowing the life and commerce of the capital to resume unhindered, and to cooperate with each other towards agreement on long term political solutions that will stabilize the situation and benefit the country as a whole." (Embassy Comment: The statement, though moderate represents the privately expressed view of the vast majority of AmCham members that the protests hurt businesses and need to end. End Comment.) TEFFT