GEORGIA: PROTESTS - SAAKASHVILI MEETS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000906 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: PROTESTS - SAAKASHVILI MEETS WITH OPPOSITION REF: TBILISI 899 Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: President Saakashvili met separately with both the non-parliamentary and parliamentary opposition May ¶11. The non-parliamentary meeting reached no public agreement other than a commitment by some in the non-parliamentary opposition to continue to talk. Nonetheless, privately the GoG offer to discuss reforms was well received by a number of non-parliamentary leaders and the meeting deemed a positive step forward by both Speaker Bakradze and opposition leader Irakli Alasania. They both provided similar readouts to the Ambassador of the meeting with Saakashvili. During the meeting, the non-parliamentary group expressed the hope that protesters and protests organizers would not be punished for their actions. Saakashvili countered that he was agreeable, would put the guarantees in writing, and offered that both sides could use the Patriarh's statements about reconciliation as cover. Saakashvili's second meeting, with the parliamentary opposition, resulted in an agreement in principle to begin negotiations on constitutional reform; to continue working on electoral reform and media reform; and to further cooperate in reforming various state structures. Late in the afternoon May 11, a crowd of about 7,000-10,000 gathered in front of Parliament to hear non-parliamentary leaders address the crowd. Protest leaders promised a more detailed announcement of intentions on May 12, but several including Nino Burjanadze, Salome Zourabichvili and Eke Beselia roundly condemned the ongoing dialogue and vowed to escalate protests, although they may have decided against escalation in the short term. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Comment: The fact that retribution was a major point of discussion for the non-parliamentary opposition is as clear a sign as we have seen that the leaders of the non-parliamentary opposition are working on an end game. Saakashvili's offer to the non-parliamentary opposition was well received by Alasania who indicated that others in the non-parliamentary opposition felt similarly. Saakashvili's proposal, as we understand it, could represent meaningful positive democratic reform. At a minimum, various channels are open with a growing momentum toward dialogue. Another group, led by Nino Burjanadze is attempting to scuttle dialogue at all costs. We will continue to encourage ongoing discussions and are cautiously optimistic that the reforms proposed by President Saakashvili can form a solid basis for continuing political dialogue. End Comment. Saakashvili Meets with Non-Parliamentary Opposition ¶3. (C) According to both Bakradze and Alasania, the meeting was largely positive and constructive except for a few hiccups. Separately, they each told the Ambassador that virtually all issues were discussed, and Saakashvili was firm that he would not resign under any circumstances. Saakashvili laid out a number of areas in which he was prepared to engage in negotiations. Saakashvili proposed the following: -- Establishing a Constitutional Commission with an opposition member as its chairman which would work to strengthen Parliament's power versus that of the Executive branch; -- Expanding opposition seats on the public broadcaster's board; granting Maestro TV a satellite license; expanding Public Channel 2 to provide C-Span-like political coverage; -- Holding local elections on an early timetable in the Q-- Holding local elections on an early timetable in the Spring including the direct election of Tbilisi mayor; electoral code reform (ongoing); the possibility of pre-term Parliamentary elections; -- Reforming the judiciary in which Saakashvili asked for proposals on how to accomplish said reforms; -- Opposition oversight of the MoIA including a Deputy Minister position. ¶4. (C) In addition, at the request of the non-parliamentary opposition, Saakashvili said he would support an amnesty and provide written guarantees against retribution for those who participated in the protests. Bakradze said protection for protesters and organizers was the main issue for the non-parliamentary side. Alasania did not disagree, but indicated it was more of an issue for Levan Gachechiladze whose brother Giorgi (pop singer "Utsnobi") led the brief storming May 6 of a police station and, according to TBILISI 00000906 002 OF 002 Alasania, probably deserved to be arrested. Alasania said David Usupashvili (Alliance - Republicans) was working on a response to be circulated among the non-parliamentary opposition which, according to Alasania, would respond positively to Saakashvili's proposals. Alasania did not believe he would get widespread support from the radicals for the response but hoped that Gachechiladze and some of the others would come around. Alasania mentioned that a number of the more radical factions, such as the National Forum, were looking for a dignified way out. Saakashvili left the door slightly ajar for pre-term parliamentary elections, but cautioned that he would have to see how local elections (scheduled for 2010) proceeded and would not allow discussion of pre-term parliamentary elections to further polarize the political climate. ¶5. (C) Bakradze told the Ambassador that he was surprised at how much Saakashvili offered. He mentioned that Alasania, Gachechiladze, and Shartava (National Forum) were engaged and constructive. Bakradze singled out Salome Zourabichvili (Georgia's Way) as extremely unconstructive and combative. Apparently, she started the meeting with a long tirade demanding Saakashvili's resignation. Alasania largely shared Bakradze's assessment saying the choice of sending Zourabichvili to the meeting was a contentious one among even the non-parliamentary group. (Embassy Note: Alasania countered that they had to endure a long Saakashvili monologue about how wonderful the new MoIA building and new buildings in Batumi were. End Note.) Both Bakradze and Alasania were pleased with the meeting and committed to further political dialogue. Alasania said that once his response is circulated, he will go ahead with negotiations. Noting that he had previously made a similar statement, Alasania explained that he was sincere, but in the meantime the non-parliamentary group started moving towards negotiations on its own. Alasania said he made his decision to let the process play out. However, now that the meeting with the President had taken place, Alasania felt the time was right to break and pursue negotiations on his own if need be. For its part, Bakradze said the GoG would hold a Diplomatic Corps briefing in the next day or so (now scheduled for May 13),then wait a few days for a non-parliamentary response. If no response wasforthcoming, the GoG would start working on its proposals without them. Two Camps Forming - Protests In a Holding Pattern ¶6. (C) Alasania explained that certain members of the non-parliamentary opposition would never accept dialogue and were hoping that confrontation would galvanize the public to rise up and force Saakashvili to resign. The leader of the group was Nino Burjanadze (Democratic Movement - United Georgia) along with Zourabichvili and Eka Beselia (United Georgia - Okruashvili's nominal party). According to him, Gachechiladze understood that protests had failed and they needed to get something tangible from them. Gachechiladze, using opposition parliamentarian Paata Davitaia (We Ourselves) as an intermediary, was speaking to Saakashvili's team. Alasania said Gachechiladze may meet separately with Saakashvili. In addition, Alasania said he was planning on meeting Bakradze soon to discuss moving negotiations forward and might meet separately with Saakashvili. Alasania indicated that a number of non-parliamentary leaders were on Qindicated that a number of non-parliamentary leaders were on the fence, but starting to lean toward talks, realizing that protests had not been successful. In the other camp, Burjanadze was advocating the escalation of protests and no dialogue. ¶7. (C) Alasania said that Burjanadze, Zourabichvili, Beselia and others hoped that the GoG would forcibly remove the cell cities blocking Rustaveli for the traditional May 26 (Georgian Independence Day) parade, thereby providing a spark to oust Saakashvili. According to Bakradze and Alasania, Saakashvili made clear that he had no intention of doing this and that he would be happy to let the non-parliamentary leaders take the blame for ruining a national holiday. Alasania indicated that he was tired of protests and would not support the blocking of major roads or ports of entry. For the time being, a decision had been made by the non-parliamentary opposition to maintain the status quo. Alasania said that even National Forum members regretted their statements calling for wider protests and were looking for a way to backtrack from them. Apparently, Burjanadze was holding their feet to the fire demanding that they back up their statement. Among the group; however, Alasania said that there was general understanding among the moderates that expanding the protests would be counterproductive. TEFFT