GEORGIA: PARLIAMENTARY AND NON-PARLIAMENTARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 000083

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: PARLIAMENTARY AND NON-PARLIAMENTARY
OPPOSITIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary/Comment: The comments of both Parliamentary
and non-Parliamentary opposition leaders indicate that their
interests and visions for the near and longer term future
continue to diverge. Cooperation between the Parliamentary
and non-Parliamentary opposition camps is limited at best.
The non-parliamentary opposition continues to accuse its
parliamentary counterparts of being collaborators with the
Government and has focused on agitating for President
Saakashvili's resignation and the holding of new elections.
The Parliamentary opposition is increasingly seized with
staking out positions on substantive issues and promoting new
initiatives within the Parliament. As a result, they are
growing ever more critical and increasingly skeptical of the
motives of their counterparts outside of Parliament. The
Christian Democrats (CDM),the largest opposition party in
parliament, have little to gain from new elections and have
told us that they need a few years without elections to build
a nationwide party that is capable of winning a parliamentary
majority. With the remaining independent members of the
parliamentary opposition threatened with the possibility of
losing their mandates in new mandates, the whole of the
Parliamentary opposition seems very content with the status
quo. While the Parliamentary opposition has contingency
plans for the possibility of new elections, we expect that
they will continue to argue against new elections as
unnecessary and unwise. Independent polls continue to show
that the public is also opposed to early elections, meaning
that the non-parliamentary opposition's calls for elections
are expected to fall on deaf ears, barring major economic or
political changes. End Summary/Comment.

Parliamentary Opposition Works the System


2. (C) CDM leaders Giorgi Targamadze and George Rukhadze
told poloff in no uncertain terms that they were opposed to
new elections. Targamadze said the non-Parliamentary
opposition is making irresponsible demands and there is no
legal basis for new elections. He criticized the
non-Parliamentary, "Rustaveli elite", for worrying more about
their personal political fortunes than what is good for the
country. He said that the call for new elections is an
attempt to regain some relevance and ultimately only benefits
the Russians. Targamadze repeatedly made the point to Poloff
that he did not want to help push any Russian agenda in
Georgia. According to Targamadze, the CDM would marginally
gain from new elections numbers-wise so he did not fear new
elections, but he opposed them on principle. Targamadze,
however, admitted to Poloff that the CDM also benefited from
being the major opposition party in the Parliament, and that
new elections that brought additional opposition voices into
Parliament could dilute CDM's public platform.


3. (C) One man party Jondi Baghaturia (Georgian Troupe)
clearly relishes his position as an MP and is dead set
against elections. Unlikely to be re-elected to any new
Parliament, Baghaturia, like Targamadze, has a vested
interest in "principled" opposition to new elections. At any
rate, Baghaturia says the demands for new elections are not
serious and are not supported by the public. Baghaturia, a
former member of the United Opposition, simply says, "we lost
and we'd lose again." Baghaturia likewise calls new election
talk to be "wishful thinking" and says non-Parliamentary
opposition members simply want MP positions now that they
Qopposition members simply want MP positions now that they
have found life on the outside unattractive. Both Baghaturia
and Targamadze think that the likelihood of Saakashvili
calling for new elections is zero, unless there was pressure
from the U.S., and even then only Parliamentary elections
would be called. Both opined that the National Movement
(UNM) would stand to lose some seats but would remain the
majority even with a "reformed" election code.

Non-Parliamentary Opposition Wants New Elections


4. (C) Not surprisingly, Kakha Kukava (Conservatives)
viewed new elections a bit differently. Kukava argued to
Poloff that there would be no resolution of the political
crisis until Saakashvili left office. Kukava said that the
non-Parliamentary opposition still intends to stage protests
to bring about new elections, but has not formalized its
plans. In fact, Kukava admitted that he was unsure if a
planned late January protest would take place and said a
smaller indoor rally is being considered. Kukava further
acknowledged that he sees any consolidation of
non-Parliamentary opposition in the near term as very
unlikely. He noted that likely participants in any future
protests would be the former members of the United
Opposition, although without the support of New Rights,
Georgian Troupe, and We Ourselves (Paata Davitaia). The
remaining group constitutes the most radical elements of the
non-Parliamentary opposition. Labor and perhaps another

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party or two might participate in protests, but would do so
only as a general matter of support for anti-Saakashvili
forces, and would not officially join the ever dwindling
United Opposition ranks. Kukava is aware of various polls
showing public opinion is against new elections and protests.
Regardless, he vows to move forward saying that polling
always shows the public against these things, but that
protests triggered elections before and would do so again.
Surprisingly, Kukava admitted to poloff that he regretted not
taking his mandate -- "not 100% but maybe 50% of me thinks I
should have taken it."


5. (C) Industrialist leader, Zurab Tkemaladze whose party
ran in a small bloc and garnered less than 1% support in the
2008 Parliamentary elections, said there is no legal or
constitutional norm to hold new elections. Tkemaladze also
stated that Saakashvili would not call for new elections, but
would not be afraid to do so if necessary. Tkemaladze is
also of the opinion that UNM would win handily saying there
might be a different dynamic in Parliament, but Saakashvili
is safe. A generation or so older than most in the GOG or
among opposition leaders, Tkemaladze lamented the lack of
statesmen among the current crop of politicians. Tkemaladze
see public protests as unwise, unwanted, and
counterproductive. A former MP, Tkemaladze is dead set
against new elections, saying the country has had too many
revolutions and none have had positive results. For once, he
said, Georgia needs to have a constitutional change of power,
his personal dissatisfaction with Saakashvili notwithstanding.

All Agree that Funding is Key


6. (C) Targamadze, Baghaturia, Kukava, and Tkemaladze all
stated that the ability to raise funds independently is a
critical to the success of their political aspirations and
operations. Targamadze is proposing legislation to try to
limit the GOG's ability to "regulate" business and thereby
attract financial support. All agreed that as a practical
matter, obtaining private funding for political parties is
impossible. Targamadze, Baghaturia, and Tkemaladze alleged
that there are many prominent businessmen who would gladly
fund opposition candidates, but they fear GOG reprisals.
Until those in the opposition can effectively fund-raise, the
ability to spread their message will be limited. All were
critical of Saakashvili, but to varying degrees. Kukava said
that Saakashvili is totally and completely discredited.
Targamadze, Baghaturia, and Tkemaladze were less strident in
their views. All gave Saakashvili some credit for economic
reforms and limited democratic progress. They believed that
they needed to push Saakashvili toward more democratic
reforms and specifically requested that the USG pass along a
similar message. Targamadze said "the more voices telling
Saakashvili the same thing the better." He and Tkemaladze
both told PolOff that "he listens to you (US)".

Both Parts of the Opposition Jockey for Position


7. (C) Kukava said he is open to working with the CDM
because it actually is an opposition party, but not Davitaia
or Baghaturi whom he regards as tools of the United National
Movement (UNM). (Embassy Comment: This represents a minor
shift for Kukava who had viewed all the Parliamentary
opposition as a wholly owned subsidy of the UNM. A
willingness to work with CDM shows that they are gaining in
stature even among opposition rivals. End Comment.) In
general, Kukava and his allies have no plan other than
staging new protests. Eka Beselia (United Georgia -
Qstaging new protests. Eka Beselia (United Georgia -
Okruashvili's Party),said that the non-Parliamentary
opposition needs to and will consolidate, but she could not
put forth any realistic scenarios in which this would occur.
Beselia relayed to PolOff a more nuanced take on public
opinion polls showing little public desire for elections.
According to Beselia, the numbers supporting new elections
are low because a majority of Georgian just assume
Saakashvili will rig the elections. Absent Saakashvili,
there is widespread public support for elections.
Nevertheless, Beselia said that the only option is to
continue to protest. What is clear is that the
non-Parliamentary opposition has not put much thought into
how to move forward if elections do not occur, likely meaning
its ad-hoc approach to politics will continue.


8. (C) Giorgi Targamadze predicted problems for the
non-Parliamentary opposition if no elections are held.
Specifically, he said that the New Rights-Republican party
will not survive. Although Gamkrelidze and Usupashvili are
personal friends, the rank and file of their parties despise
each other. Without a common goal of winning an upcoming
election, Targamadze said that the alliance is sure to
collapse. Targamadze and Tkemaladze both noted that there is
not one personality who can unite the non-Parliamentary
opposition. Targamadze said that other than Labor, no

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non-Parliamentary opposition party offers a clear policy
alternative to UNM. None of the current non-Parliamentary
nor Parliamentary leaders viewed Irakli Alasania as a game
changer. In fact, Kukava dismissed him out of hand saying
every 6 months a new exciting leader enters, makes a quick
splash then fails to achieve widespread support. Targamadze,
Tkemaladze, Baghaturia, and Beselia were more charitable.
All called him an intelligent and talented individual,but
questioned his abilities as a politician. None were willing
to foreclose the possibility of Alasania playing a role, but
suggested his time as an effective political leader is down
the road. At a minimum, Alasania faces an uphill climb to
unite a substantial portion of the non-Parliamentary
opposition behind him -- assuming that even is his goal. In
all, Targamadze seems to relish the opportunity a dwindling
non-Parliamentary opposition presents. If and when the
non-Parliamentary opposition starts to further splinter,
Targamadze and the CDM will be waiting to welcome them and
their supporters with open arms.
TEFFT