GEORGIA: FORMER PM NOGHAIDELI PREPARING FOR A

C O N F I D E N T I A L TBILISI 000503 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: FORMER PM NOGHAIDELI PREPARING FOR A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. Former prime minister and opposition politician Zurab Noghaideli told the Ambassador March 9 that many of Georgia's opposition politicians are incorrectly reading the will of the people. He argued that the time was not right for changing Georgia's government and predicted that the protests planned for April 9 would yield few, if any, serious developments. Noghaideli had a long term view for developing his political party starting in his home region of Ajara and planned to concentrate on the economic challenges facing Georgia. He said he was focused on the "post-Misha" period. End Summary ¶2. (C) Comment. The former prime minister seems to have a carefully thought out strategy for building a party and a platform for future elections. He appears responsive to recent polling which shows the people of Georgia seek stability more than they want to remove the President from office. Noghaideli has remained separate and apart from most other opposition movements and seems intent on remaining above the fray. Considering his dismally low poll ratings upon his departure from office, Noghaideli may be developing political instincts that could separate him from the rest of the pack, although rumors of corrupt practices from his days in office could end up derailing his future. Like many in the opposition, his disdain for President Saakashvili is clear -- but it does not cloud his view of how to serve Georgia's interests or his own. End Comment Time Is Not Right to Remove Misha ¶3. (C) Noghaideli told the Ambassador that he agreed with a recent statement from the Minister of Defense -- that there would be no military solution to Georgia's conflicts. He said that it was important for Georgia's leaders to embrace peaceful resolution of the conflicts; he believed that fear of conflict, and the President himself, were deterring investment in Georgia. The former prime minister believed that it was a matter of time until the government would be changed, but he thought that it would likely be 2013 (Georgia's next scheduled presidential election). However, in order for Saakashvili to survive until 2013, Noghaideli said the president needs to make his intent to leave clear: that he will not try to change the constitution or "pull a Putin" in order to remain in authority. It's the Economy ¶4. (C) Before serving as prime minister, Noghaideli was Georgia's finance minister. He is well-regarded for his management of the economy in the early years of Saakashvili's administration. He accused current leaders of mismanaging Georgia's economy arguing that the budget was off b more than one billion GEL. He said that the government was collecting early revenues -- suggesting that it will face additional cash shortages later this year. He told the Ambassador that Georgian banks would soon face a crisis and believed that the government should have developed a bank bailout plan in 2007. Moving to relations with Russia, Noghaideli believed that Georgia's options for maneuvering in negotiations with Russia were quite limited and he hoped they would take a less confrontational path. He argued that it was important for Georgia to focus on the country it controls and "getting it off its knees." View of the other Opposition and Protests ¶5. (C) Noghaideli told the Ambassador that his party would take part in demonstrations on April 9 in Batumi. When asked about other opposition leaders, Noghaideli said that Irakli Alasania and Nino Burjanadze were focused on their own QAlasania and Nino Burjanadze were focused on their own political ambitions rather than Georgia's national interests. In his view, they were unconcerned with any damage they might cause to Georgia on their paths to the presidency. Noghaideli said that Burjanadze was desperate -- and needed to take immediate action in order to boost her popularity. He said that he did not think Alasania was as desperate as Burjanadze or Levan Gachechiladze. He described a significant difference between his plans and theirs -- and it's all about timing. Noghaideli said he is working on his own timeline, not one driven by the short term deadlines like April 9. He intended to build a party and a platform and recognized that time was needed. Noghaideli told us he was prepared for a marathon and that he sought change through regular elections, not street action. TEFFT