GEORGIA: ALASANIA CALLS FOR PLEBISCITE

C O N F I D E N T I A L TBILISI 000463 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: ALASANIA CALLS FOR PLEBISCITE REF: A. TBILISI 374 ¶B. TBILISI 324 Classified By: AMBSSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (U) Summary: Former UN Ambassador Irakli Alasania announced that he and his political team would initiate the process of holding a non-binding plebiscite on the question of the removal of President Saakashvili from office. The announcement follows the March 5 expiration of the ten day period that Alasania gave to President Saakashvili to call for a referendum on new elections. Alasania stated that his Alliance for Georgia ("Alliance") would start a full-scale campaign to collect signatures in support of Saakashvili's removal and early presidential elections. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Embassy Comment: As was widely expected by political observers and Alasania's team itself, President Saakashvili decided to ignore the call for a referendum. Alasania seems intent on taking a different tack, at least initially, to force Saakashvili's resignation by constitutional means. If the Alliance can collect enough signatures, the tactic may put some additional pressure on Saakashvili to respond in some fashion. By itself, the exercise is unlikely to convince any current fence-sitters on the question of early elections to join him. Despite the announcement, the question remains as to how committed the Alliance is to following through with a nationwide endeavor and whether the Alliance's organization is capable of collecting a significant amount of signatures. The Alliance still has not announced whether or not it will take part in the planned April 9 protests but after calling for a referendum, and subsequent plebiscite, it could be laying the moral groundwork to justify more radical actions if needed. End Comment. Plebiscite Announcement Expected ¶3. (C) The announcement that the Alliance would engage in a so-called plebiscite was widely expected. Having stated its demand for a referendum, the Alliance quickly abandoned the premise as unrealistic, and is now seeking a non-binding plebiscite as a more straight-forward way to make a political statement. As a technical matter, the plebiscite process would have to be approved by the Central Election Committee before it begins, so the labeling of this independent effort to collect signatures a plebiscite is a misnomer, but the practical difference is negligible. For his part, Christian Democratic Leader Giorgi Targamadze told PolOff that he does not see the point of the plebiscite. Targamadze added that he saw no constitutional way to force Saakashvili from office, plebiscite or not. (Embassy Comment: Targamadze has publicly called the planned protests destabilizing in a time of economic crisis and condemned the process of changing regimes by protest actions. End Comment.). Signatures Collected But End Game Still Unclear ¶4. (C) The Alliance claims that it has already collected roughly 50,000 "signatures," but has not indicated what its future plans are. Most of these signatures have been dropped anonymously in boxes in metro stations and will have no impact on the political process. The local IRI representative (strictly protect) told Poloff that she had a long meeting with Alasania in February in which he disavowed any desire to engage in protests or call for immediate new elections. As she succinctly stated, "he obviously changed his mind". The Alliance has not announced plans to join in the April 9 protests, but has not ruled them out putting the party in the position of trying to maintain a moderate approach while pursuing the more radical aim of regime Qapproach while pursuing the more radical aim of regime change. As April 9 approaches, the Alliance will be under increasing pressure to join the planned protests, but for the moment is keeping its options open. TEFFT