GEORGIA: RUMORS, MANEUVERING, AND ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000024

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: RUMORS, MANEUVERING, AND ELECTIONS

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary/Comment: Well informed International
Republican Institute Country Director, Dimitry Shashkin
(strictly protect) has passed on several far fetched but
widely circulated rumors in Tbilisi alleging a US or EU
engineered plot to oust President Saakashvili in the spring.
While the likelihood of pre-term elections currently exists
as a possibility mainly in the minds of the opposition, the
rumors are impacting the opposition and have likely delayed
any more political consolidation until late next year. If
spring passes without elections, Shashkin believes various
opposition leaders face stark choices about their political
futures. Others, notably Irakli Alasania seem to be taking a
longer view, trying to line up support for the Presidential
race in 2013. However, Shashkin contends that Alasania may
ultimately suffer from unrealistically high expectations
among supporters to do something immediately. End
Summary/Comment.

OPPOSITION IN A PANIC - RUMORS A PLENTY


2. (C) Shashkin told us that Giorgi Targamadze (Christian
Democratic Movement (CDM) Leader) and Levan Vepkhvadze
(Deputy Speaker, CDM) approached him recently about rumors of
upcoming Georgian elections precipitated by eithr
President-Elect Obama or Ambassador Tefft (on behalf of
Obama) demanding President Saakashvili's resignation.
Shashkin assured them that was not in anybody's plans.
Shashkin said the CDM was concerned they would be caught
flat-footed if snap elections were held. Targamadze also
relayed to Shashkin alternative theories involving
Saakashvili's ouster; the CIA would remove Saakashvili and
install Alasania as President; or the EU Commission headed by
Heidi Taglivini will demand that Saakashvili resign or face a
Hague tribunal. In spite of their apparent absurdity, all
theories share a common theme ending with Saakashvili's
ouster. Shashkin who is in constant contact with all the
players among the opposition says the non-parliamentary
opposition is becoming more and more insular and divorced
from reality. Targamadze told Shashkin that he had heard the
various theories from the New Rights party. Shashkin has not
heard this directly nor can affix blame to any particular
party or individual for starting these rumors but says New
Rights, Republicans, and Burjanadze's people are happily
pushing them to those who will listen.


3. (C) Shashkin acknowledges the popularity of conspiracy
theories among political chattering classes; nevertheless, he
says the non-parliamentary opposition is getting increasingly
desperate. Shashkin confirms what we have been hearing from
other sources, that the non-parliamentary opposition is
taking on an almost religious belief that some outside force
will intervene to remove Saakashvili from office. Putting
stock in conspiracy scenarios seems to confirm that the
non-parliamentary opposition hears what we are also hearing,
that Saakashvili has no intention whatsoever to call for new
elections on his own. Shashkin believes the
non-parliamentary opposition will soon have to face the
reality that elections will not happen and then make some
painful decisions. As long as there is a remote possibility
of elections, the current makeup of the non-parliamentary
opposition will not coalesce into a larger movement. If
spring passes with no elections, Shashkin sees a number of
parties folding. Shashkin specifically mentioned New Rights
and is dubious about Burjanadze, Republicans and others
because they simply have shown no willingness to do the work
Qbecause they simply have shown no willingness to do the work
it takes to build and maintain a party in the absence of
pending elections.


4. (C) Shashkin expressed doubts that David Gamkrelidze,
David Usupashvili, or Nino Burjanadze are able to receive any
sort of realistic message at the moment. He recounted that
rather than view focus group results as a tool to improve
ones image and message, they generally argue with the
results. On the contrary, Shashkin organized a focus group
for Giorgi Targamadze after Targamadze started to show a
tendency to listen only to opinion that flattered him.
Shashkin said the group was more harsh than Shashkin thought
was fair but Targamadze, though clearly hurt from the
comments, thanked Shashkin for the lesson he learned.
Shashkin said the only opposition group that really listens
to advice is the CDM. Shashkin said that Nino Burjanadze
rejected campaigning door to door out of hand and was happy
focus groups described her as a "queen". Shashkin said it
was a bit uncomfortable to explain that being described as a
"queen" was not a positive. Shashkin believes that even if
new elections were held, Saakashvili and/or UNM would win
handily.

ALASANIA GOES LONG?


5. (C) Commenting on the recent visit to Georgia by former

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Georgian Ambassador to the UN, Irakli Alasania , Shashkin
said that Alasania's recent press conference was not a great
performance. Alasania, however, had to say something due to
all the buzz around him created by the Tbilisi political
elite. Shashkin says many in the elite circles view him as
"Santa Claus" hoping he can deliver new elections without
Saakashvili's participation. Shashkin says Alasania is
"green" as a politician, and thinks he should have waited
until this summer to announce his move to the opposition.
With a delayed announcement, Alasania could have avoided
injecting himself into the political fray right after the war
and would have a clearer picture as to the lay of the
political landscape after election talk dies down. Shashkin
said Saakashvili moved former MPs and potential defectors to
Alasania, Lasha Zhvania and Nika Rurua to cabinet positions
to up the ante on them and forestall developing any political
momentum on Alasania's part. Now if Zhvania and Rurua leave,
they will be completely outside of government which
significantly changes the risk/reward analysis and denies
them and Alasania a Parliamentary platform.


6. (C) Shashkin is circumspect about Alasania's near term
political future. He clearly views him as a talented,
capable individual but notes that the transition to the
political arena is more difficult than most think. It
appears Alasania wants to take a longer term approach but is
hedging his bets in the event of snap elections. He has been
approaching "second tier" MPs and being careful not to rock
the boat to build a support base. Shashkin says he's been
told that Alasania has provisional financial backing from
Irakli Baidashvili (GMT Group which owns both the Marriott
hotels among other businesses). Alasania is being careful
not to alienate anybody in the opposition because of the
possibility of early elections, but is wary of attaching
himself to any particular opposition figure in the absence of
elections. Thus, Alasania has put himself in a difficult
position which has been heightened by sky high expectations
for him among some of the opposition and Tbilisi's political
class.

WHO IS THE NEXT PRESIDENT?


7. (C) Apart frm the usual cast of characters, Shashkin
views Parliamentary Speaker David Bakradze as possibly
emerging from the UNM as a standard bearer in the next
Presidential elections. While many commentators feel the UNM
will break up without Saakashvili at the helm, Bakradze could
emerge as a successor. Shashkin says he is smart,
independent, and works well both within his party and outside
of it. Shashkin says he's seen a shift among rank and file
UNM MPs who more and more view Bakradze as a leader.
Shashkin also mentioned that President Saakashvili met with
Bakradze privately in Qatar right before announcing his
recent cabinet shift. Bakradze is a well versed policymaker,
but now Saakashvili appears to be seeking his advice on
politics as well as policy. If he gains Saakashvili's
support and can unify at least a portion of the UNM behind
him, Bakradze could be a formidable presidential candidate.
Another candidate who may be thinking about throwing his hat
in the ring is Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze. However,
until it becomes clear to all that Saakashvili will serve out
his full term, candidates from the UNM will likely remain mum
on any future intentions.
TEFFT