GEORGIA: SKEPTICAL VIEW ON CAUCASUS STABILITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000223 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2019 TAGS: PGOV GG TK SUBJECT: GEORGIA: SKEPTICAL VIEW ON CAUCASUS STABILITY PLATFORM REF: ANKARA 00137 Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES A.I. KENT LOGSDON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY/COMMENT. In a frank discussion, MFA International Organizations Director Sergi Kapanadze made it clear that the Georgians have no hope that anything substantive will come out of the Turkish proposed Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform, now or in the future, but were unwilling to be seen as the instigators of a collapse of the forum. He noted that the late January talks were the "strangest" he had ever been involved in, as every party aside from the Turks had no interest in accomplishing anything other than an airing of mutual recriminations, but no one wanted to be blamed for obstructing the talks. Kapanadze, who accompanied Georgian delegation head Deputy Minister Giga Bokeria to the meeting, expected that Georgia will continue to participate in the Platform, but will also look to slow down meetings, water down any goals, and otherwise try to placate the Turks in what they view as a relatively harmless attempt to exert influence from Ankara into the Caucasus. However, he did acknowledge that the forum could turn out to be a useful place to discuss other issues in the future. END SUMMARY. THE TURKISH PROPOSAL - "JUST STRANGE" ¶2. (C) Poloffs met with Georgian Director of the Department of International Organizations at MFA on February 4 to discuss Georgian views on the Turkish-led Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform (CSCP). Promising at the outset to speak frankly, Director Kapanadze stressed the sheer strangeness of the late January CSCP meeting in Ankara, which included representatives from Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Russia, and Turkey; Georgia was represented by Deputy Foreign Minister Giga Bokeria. He noted that of these five seats at the table, four are made up of odd couples that do not want to talk to each other, and the fifth is completely aware of the near term futility of talks, but firmly committed to the possible national prestige associated with sponsoring a forum for regional cooperation. While the parties disagreed on most issues of substance, no party wanted to be seen as responsible for any breakdown in talks. When asked about any contact between the Russian and Georgian delegations, Kapanadze said that nothing occurred beyond the typical "quarrels" often seen in official gatherings, and that neither side seemed interested in anything more. In separate conversatios with Emboffs, Deputy FM Bokeria relayed a similar cynical view towards the talks. THE SLOWER THE BETTER ¶3. (C) Kapanadze stressed that, in his opinion, the primary goal of the Turks in the CSCP was to orchestrate a future ministerial level meeting, which no other party wanted. Both the Azeris and Georgians openly opposed such a high-level meeting, the Armenians quietly noted their opposition, and the Russians generally appeared to be uninterested in anything. If pushed, the Georgians would be amenable to a future meeting at the Deputy Minister level, but do not believe it would result in anything outside of a weak non-paper that avoids serious issues. According to him, the Armenians were opposed to a Deputy Ministerial-level meeting. Kapanadze stated that they are open to continuing the dialogue, but prefer less frequent meetings, and plan on telling the Turks that they prefer not to meet again until April or later as they are otherwise "busy." A NON-DRAFT OF A NON-PAPER ¶4. (C) When asked about the status of any draft of a Q4. (C) When asked about the status of any draft of a statement or communique from the Ankara meeting, Kapanadze stated that the Georgians were waiting for a "quasi-draft" of a non-paper, but that it was getting progressively shorter as well as worsening in substance as the parties viewed what the Turks had compiled into a draft and requested changes. At best, a watered down non-paper could be the result of a future gathering, but he stressed his own view of the small probability such a document would ever be completed. Instead, he believed that the most that could achieved was a ministerial meeting sometime well in the future that accomplished relatively little. While not desirable, the Georgians appear to be slightly more open to this than the Armenians. GEORGIAN VIEWS ON TURK MOTIVATIONS ¶5. (C) Kapanadze thought that the CSCP was a pet project of senior Turkish officials who surely understood its minimal TBILISI 00000223 002 OF 002 chance for success, but regardless was viewed as essential by a Turkish government eager to increase its prestige in the region. Kapanadze noted that the Turks had nothing to lose by organizing such meetings under the auspices of the CSCP, and even he said that it could turn out to be a useful venue to discuss issues in the future. However, the participants besides Turkey seem unwittingly to have agreed on the need to minimize the importance of the forum. Georgia was more than willing to take part, comfortable in the knowledge that there was little to lose. They believed that the other countries, equally eager to not have any negative publicity arise from a overt failure, had similar positions. LOGSDON B T LOGSDON