GEORGIA: 2010 BUDGET - CUTS CONTINUE

UNCLAS TBILISI 002171 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN PRIL PGOV GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: 2010 BUDGET - CUTS CONTINUE ¶1. (U) Summary: The Parliament of Georgia approved the 2010 state budget on December 4, setting estimated revenues at GEL 5.17 billion (USD 3.1 billion, 1 USD = 1.68 GEL),a 20 percent decrease from 2009, and estimated expenditures at GEL 5.46 billion (USD 3.25 billion),a 21 percent decrease from ¶2009. This budget assumes that the Georgian economy contracted by 4 percent in 2009 but will increase by 2 percent in 2010, reaching a GDP of GEL 19 billion (USD 11.3 billion). The parliamentary minority did not support this budget: they complained of inadequate transparency and insufficient support for small and medium enterprises. Only social expenditures received any significant increase; defense spending will be half of 2008 levels. End Summary. ¶2. (U) Comment: Parliament's dramatic 20 percent cut of the government's expected 2010 revenues and expenses is an appropriate reaction to the international economic downturn, especially if the GoG devotes any additional revenues from better-than-expected growth to debt service (which Minister of Finance Baindurashvili pledged to the Ambassador December 9). However, the economic growth assumptions upon which these estimates are based may be overly optimistic, although they are in line with some private analysts' forecasts. A 2 percent increase in 2010 GDP is reasonable, but if the Georgian economy contracted by substantially more than 4 percent in 2009, it would be less likely to recover to the 2010 level predicted in this budget. The additional 16 percent reduction of an already lean defense budget belies Russian allegations that Georgia has rearmed. End Comment. (U) Ministerial breakdown of 2010 funding: - Ministry of Labor, Healthcare, and Social Protection - GEL 1.592 billion (USD 946 million) (4 percent increase from 2009) - Ministry of Regional Development and Infrastructure - GEL 814.8 million (USD 485 million) (6 percent decrease from 2009) - Defense Ministry - GEL 750 million (USD 446 million) (16 percent decrease from 2009; 52 percent decrease from 2008) - Ministry of Education and Science - GEL 557.6 million (USD 332 million) (7 percent increase from 2009) - Interior Ministry - GEL 548 million (USD 326 million) (3.5 percent decrease from 2009; 26 percent decrease from 2008) - Finance Ministry - GEL 301 million (USD 179 million) - Ministry for Penitentiary System and Probation - GEL 113.4 million (USD 67.5 million) (5 percent decrease from 2009) - Ministry of Culture, Protection of Monument and Sports - GEL 81.5 million (USD 49 million) (5 percent decrease from 2009) - Foreign Ministry - GEL 66.4 million (USD 40 million) - Ministry of Agriculture - GEL 53.3 million (USD 32 million) - Justice Ministry - GEL 45 million (USD 28 million) (30 percent decrease from 2009) - Ministry of Environmental Protection - GEL 28.5 million (USD 17 million) ( (30 percent decrease from 2009) - Ministry of Refugees and Accommodation - GEL 27.8 million (USD 17 million) (56 percent decrease from 2009) - Economic Ministry - GEL 23.8 million (USD 14 million) - Energy Ministry - GEL 17.8 million (USD 11 million) (69 percent decrease from 2009) (U) Other offices and organizations: - State Minister for Integration into European and Euro-Atlantic Structures - GEL 1.151 million (USD 685,000) (2 percent increase from 2009) - State Minister for Reintegration Issues - GEL 1 million (USD 595,000) (23 percent decrease from 2009) - State Minister for Diaspora Issues - GEL 762 thousand (USD 454,000) (16 percent decrease from 2009) - President's and Government reserve funds - GEL 25 million each (15 million) (50 percent decrease from 2009) Qeach (15 million) (50 percent decrease from 2009) - Central Election Commission - GEL 37.2 million (USD 22 million) - Public Defender's Office - GEL 1.9 million (USD 1.1 million) (5 percent decrease from 2009) - Georgian Public Broadcaster - GEL 22 million (USD 13 million) (14 percent decrease from 2009) - Georgian Orthodox Church - GEL 25.3 million (USD 15 million) (1 percent increase from 2009) - Local Governments - GEL 829 million (USD 493 million) (47 percent increase from 2009) - Development of road infrastructure - GEL 708 million (USD 421 million) BASS