GEORGIA: ELECTORAL CODE PASSES FIRST READING,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002170

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: ELECTORAL CODE PASSES FIRST READING,
OPPOSITION WEIGHTS ITS OPTIONS

REF: A. TBILISI 2056

B. TBILISI 2005

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN R. BASS FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d).


1. (C) Summary: As expected, Parliament passed draft
amendments to the electoral code on the first reading and is
expected to adopt the law after a second and third reading
scheduled for later this month. The draft consists of the
general consensus as agreed to in the framework of the NDI
sponsored Electoral Law Working Group (ELWG) (ref B).
Parliament is expected to provide the draft to the Venice
Commission for review in early January. Meanwhile, various
non-parliamentary groups are weighing their options. The
Irakli Alasania-led Alliance for Georgia is likely to
participate in elections despite not securing a higher
threshold percentage to avoid a run-off (ref A) but faces its
own internal problems. More radical opposition leaders are
also rumored to be discussing some sort of protest actions in
advance of the local elections scheduled to be held in May

2010. Despite elections that are six months away, the Labor
party has reportedly been under pressure by the ruling UNM to
also participate in local elections in order to skew the
field towards their likely candidate current mayor Gigi
Ugulava. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: Because the UNM holds a constitutional
majority in Parliament, the passage of the election code is
all but a formality. Now that the electoral ground rules
have been firmly established, the pre-election maneuvering
has begun in full force. Alasania and his team have
discovered how difficult it is to successfully navigate
within the non-parliamentary opposition, hindered by a number
of bit players looking for either a political or monetary
payoff for support. Labor leader Shalva Natelashvili and his
solid seven percent looks to be in a position to help the UNM
should Labor decide to run a candidate either by virture of
political pressure or potential financial incentives. End
Comment.

MPs Pass Election Code Amendments


3. (U) On December 4, 2009, Parliament passed the first
reading of the draft law to amend the current electoral code.
The draft represents the UNM proposal which was agreed upon
by all of the participants in the ELWG, except the Alliance
which could not agree to the proposed 30 percent threshold
(ref A, ref B). The draft clarifies a few outstanding
details not covered by the ELWG agreement. Notably, in the
twenty-five majoritarian districts for city council seats in
Tbilisi, the winner will be determined by outright plurality
because no threshold will exist for these races. The
twenty-five party list seats will be apportioned on a
relative percentage basis for all parties that exceed a 4
percent threshold. Currently, the law will allow sitting MPs
to run for Tbilisi City Council and still retain their
parliamentary mandates. Acording to the Chairman of the
Legal Committee Pavel Kubliashvili, this provision could be
revised in the second reading.

Alliance Finds the Non-Parliamentary Opposition Difficult


4. (C) Alasania confidante, Alex Petriashvili (Our Georgia
- Free Democrats) told Poloff that Alasania was ninety-nine
percent sure he would run for Tbilisi mayor, despite the
threshold issue. Petriashvili detailed the difficulties in
getting other nominal non-parliamentary allies to support
them. According to Petriashvili, announced candidates Koba
Davitashvili (People's Party) and Zviad Dzidziguri
QDavitashvili (People's Party) and Zviad Dzidziguri
(Conservatives) had already approached the Alliance and named
the price for their support. Petriashvili said both would
either take money or certain positions should Alasania win.
He told Poloff that a number of other non-parliamentary
actors were also approaching them with highly conditional
offers of support. Petriashvili, a former Ambassador, said
he preferred dealing with Russians "because at least you knew
where they stood whether or not their positions were
defensible". Petriashvili also told Poloff that some of the
more radical opposition leaders like Nino Burjanadze
(Democratic Movement - United Georgia) and Eka Beselia
(Movement for United Georgia) were looking to stage protests
or other such action in advance of the May 2010 local
elections to try to discredit the election process or stop it
in its entirety. Petriashvili was cautiously optimistic that
Alasania could win former presidential candidate Levan
Gachechiladze's support and that the National Forum (5-6
percent popularity in Tbilisi) would possibly support or at
least remain neutral towards Alasania's mayoral candidacy.

An Alliance Built to Last?

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5. (C) The Alasania-led Alliance still appears confused
about its ultimate goals are and how to achieve them. The
Alliance will be meeting with American political consulting
firm Aristotle this week to discuss consulting services for
the upcoming local elections. Even with western political
consultants, it may prove to be difficult to paper over
significant problems within the Alliance itself. Republican
leader, David Usupashvili is reportedly upset at a decision
by Alasania and other Alliance leader, David Gamkrelidze (New
Rights) to focus solely on Tbilisi elections. The
Republicans, in contrast to New Rights and Our Georgia - Free
Democrats, have regional strength and are looking to win
seats in local councils all over Georgia. The apparent
decision by Alasania and Gamkrelidze to focus all of their
resources in Tbilisi puts Usupashvili in the difficult
position of explaining to his party members why the Alliance
is essentially leaving local Republican party members without
electoral support. For his part, Alasania spends a
significant portion of his time traveling outside of Georgia.
He recently missed his own diplomatic corps briefing and has
canceled multiple meetings with his local party leadership
leading many among his ranks to question his true commitment
to party building and politics. Gamkrelidze, who is well
known for his long history of poor political decision making,
has become the bankroller of the Alliance giving him
significant leverage over its decision-making processes.
None of the leadership has shown any desire to engage in
retail level politics, nor have they decided what specific
issues they will campaign on other than simply opposing the
UNM - a strategy that has failed time and time again.

Natelashvili in an Interesting Position


6. (C) Recently, Labor MP Kakha Dzagania (who accepted his
mandate but does not participate in Parliament) asked to see
Poloff to discuss his brother. (Embassy Note: It is
important to note that the Labor party has a reputation for
less than accurate allegations and a flair for the dramatic
and hyperbolic. End Note.) Dzagania told Poloff that his
brother had been arrested, and he was subsequently approached
by MoIA (he did not specify an individual) to make a deal.
According to Dzagania, the MoIA simply wanted Labor party
participation in the local elections. Up to this point,
Labor has maintained that it would not participate in local
elections. Dzagania told Poloff that GoG representatives had
previously approached Labor leader Shalva Natelashvili and
offered "financial incentives" for his participation.
According to Dzagania, because Natelashvili had refused, the
GoG was now using more coercive measures to force the Labor
party (or simply some of its leaders) to participate in local
elections. (Embassy Comment: It would certainly be in UNM's
interest to have Natelashvili or another Labor leader enter
the race. Labor would be assured of its normal 7-10 percent
vote which would not negatively affect UNM's candidate. If
Labor does not participate, a significant portion of its
electorate would still vote, possibly for Alasania. End
Comment.) In an unrelated conversation, Alex Petriashvili
told Poloff that Natelashvili was playing both sides to try
to get the best deal from either the Alliance, GoG, or other
political actors.
BASS