GEORGIA: UN SEES ABKHAZ INCIDENT PREVENTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002066 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS RS GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: UN SEES ABKHAZ INCIDENT PREVENTION MECHANISM GELLING REF: TBILISI 1935 TBILISI 00002066 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES A.I. KENT LOGSDON FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. UN officials see the Abkhaz Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism as a useful mechanism to defuse tensions that provides a constructive vehicle for engaging all sides. The UN reported that most IPRM procedural issues were resolved within the first meeting. They also noted that the Abkhaz de facto authorities and Russians are now sending the same representatives to each meeting, which has lead to confidence and familiarity among all participants (all other delegations have had consistency in their representatives for the onset). According to the UN, four main themes are discussed at all IPRMs: security incidents; criminal incidents; civilian incidents; and other concerns which cross all these issues (i.e. human rights and freedom of movement). They added that 50 percent of incidents raised are clarified or resolved during the IPRM. End summary. ¶2. (C) Comment. While it may be early to define tangible, concrete achievements of the Abkhaz IPRM, the increase in confidence and transparency among the participants is an accomplishment in its own right. This confidence and openness has been built up over only nine meetings and is paving the way for more substantial discussions and hopefully results, such as joint Georgian-Abkhaz site visits. It is important to consider long-term what can be achieved on the IPRM level and what should be discussed in Geneva, especially as the South Ossetian IPRM has not yet reached a similar level of success. We may be able to hold up the Abkhazia example as a model - and consider offering incentives to the Abkhaz for further cooperation, both to encourage them and to send a message to the South Ossetians. In addition, while we do not think that the Abkhaz "presidential elections," scheduled for December 12, will derail the IPRM, there may be a period of transition for any new participants. End comment. QUICK RESOLUTION OF PROCEDURAL ISSUES ¶3. (C) The three-member roving UN team for Georgia provided their overall thoughts and impressions of the Abkhaz Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism (IPRM) during a November meeting with the Tbilisi-based diplomatic corps following the ninth IPRM in Gali. We attended the meeting along with representatives from the British, French, German and Turkish Embassies. There have been nine meetings of the Abkhaz IPRM, and the UN team reported that most procedural issues were resolved in the first meeting on July 14. At that meeting, the participants agreed on the frequency of the meetings (biweekly),that the chairmanship would be held by the UN, and that the agenda would be drawn up one week in advance by the UN and circulated among the participants a few days before the meeting. The one issue not resolved was the location of subsequent meetings; while in principle all sides had agreed in Geneva that the meetings would be held alternately on both sides of the administrative boundary line (ABL),the Abkhaz participants have asked to meet in Gali until after the December 12 "elections." The Georgian side has acquiesced to this for now in order not to derail the IPRMs, but will likely propose meeting in undisputed Georgia QIPRMs, but will likely propose meeting in undisputed Georgia after December 12. By the second meeting on July 28, arrangements for the establishment of a "hotline" were also finalized. Because there is no capacity for a crisis center in which to house such a hotline, the participants agreed to exchange contact numbers, and in this way, the hotline was launched. ABKHAZ AND RUSSIAN PARTICIPANTS CONSISTENT ¶4. (C) The participants from all parties have been fairly consistent and have become even more so over the last several meetings. The Abkhaz typically send "presidential" representative for the Gali district Ruslan Kishmaria, who acts as the lead, and de facto representatives from the "ministry of foreign affairs" (usually de facto deputy foreign minister Maxim Gundjia),"ministry of defense," and "state security." The fifth participant depends on the agenda items; for example, when maritime incidents were discussed the Abkhaz sent a legal representative. The Russians have been more consistent in their participants since the fifth IPRM on September 22. All current Russian participants are based in Abkhazia and include TBILISI 00002066 002 OF 002 representatives from their "embassy" in Abkhazia, Ministry of Defense, and the FSB, and are usually at the level of a colonel. The UN team noted that in order to further depoliticize the IPRM and make it more practical, they would like to see the level of participants come down one or two more levels, including on their own side (Note: This is not the official UN position. End note). SUBSTANTIVE ISSUES ACTIVELY DISCUSSED ¶5. (C) The UN team said that there are four recurring substantive themes in the IPRMs. These are security incidents, criminal incidents, civilian incidents, and other crosscutting topics which touch on these issues. Included in the last category are such issues as human rights and freedom of movement; they are not part of the official agenda because they are political and not pure security topics. However, these issues do have an effect on security, and in fact take up the majority of discussion time. ¶6. (C) Of the incidents raised during the IPRM, the UN said that approximately 50% of the incidents are clarified or resolved in a way acceptable to all participants. One example provided was Russian helicopter overflights of undisputed Georgian territory. The Russians finally admitted that their helicopters do probably cross the ABL because of how the helicopter has to approach the landing, and the Georgians did not push the issue after this explanation was given. In another example, the issue of schoolchildren crossing the ABL to go to school in undisputed Georgia is no longer an agenda item. Although the issue has not been resolved politically, it is no longer considered a security matter, and all sides agreed that it should now be raised in other venues. SHARING A CIGARETTE AND A JOKE ¶7. (C) The UN team observed that there was a surprisingly quick progression in the IPRMs in terms of engagement on substantive issues. There is now a frank and open exchange of views and information which has quickly led to a less confrontational and more businesslike environment. The regularity of meetings has been instrumental in establishing rapport and confidence among the participants. The team noted that the participants often engage in side conversations during breaks, and can even be seen sharing a cigarette and a joke. Particularly in the last few meetings, the participants have come prepared to respond to questions and provide detailed information on specific incidents. CONCRETE RESULTS AROUND THE CORNER ¶8. (C) The major results thus far have been greater transparency, confidence and familiarity among the participants. Though there have been few concrete results yet, several are close. The UN team reported that the participants are getting closer to developing a code of conduct for crossing of the ABL. In addition, they have begun working together on investigating criminal activities, and are discussing a standard procedure for this. The idea of joint Georgian-Abkhaz visits to observe or investigate specific incidents has also been raised, specifically in terms of a joint visit to a school in Gali. The UN team reported that they are hopeful that they can begin to work on the modalities of this after the Abkhaz "presidential elections." LOGSDON