GEORGIA: SPEAKER BAKRADZE WORKING TO SALVAGE THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002056 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: SPEAKER BAKRADZE WORKING TO SALVAGE THE ELECTORAL LAW WORKING GROUP REF: A. TBILISI 2028 ¶B. TBILISI 1755 Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN R. BASS. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: Speaker of Parliament David Bakradze told the Ambassador on November 20 that he was working to find consensus that would allow all parties who participated in the Electoral Law Working Group (ELWG) to sign on to a package of reforms. Bakradze said that he hoped to develop a vehicle that captured the broad consensus on most of the reform package and acknowledged Irakli Alasania's Alliance's objection to the 30 percent threshold proposed by UNM for the May Tbilisi mayoral elections. Alliance leader, David Usupashvili (Republicans) said it was unlikely the Alliance would agree to such a proposal, and that they would continue to insist upon a 40 percent threshold. Usupashvili indicated that whatever the outcome of the ELWG, the Alliance would almost certainly participate in these local elections. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Comment: Bakradze believes his credibility is tiedto finding consensus on new electoral legislation, as he initiated the ELWG on his own accord. Bakradze seemed confident that despite the recent setback, a broad consensus across parties can be reached. The Alliance seems unlikely to agree to the UNM election package in its current form because it believes it has little to gain since it will participate in local elections regardless of the outcome. Finding as broad a compromise as possible appears to be in the UNM and GoG's best interest in order to further incorporate more moderate voices into the political process while discrediting the more radical non-parliamentary fringe. We will continue to encourage the UNM to pursue as broad a compromise as possible while refraining from urging a specific outcome on individual agenda items. Alliance leader Alasania will return to Tbilisi on November 25 (he has been away since the ELWG deadlocked). End Comment. Bakradze Committed to Getting a Deal ¶3. (C) Bakradze told the Ambassador that he was committed to getting a deal done in the ELWG framework. In Bakradze's view, having the electoral law return to the Parliament for modification absent agreement within the working group would be a significant set back. The Ambassador stressed that continuing the process itself was important regardless of whether the parties could ultimately agree on a specific outcome. Bakradze said that he would try to reach some sort of deal with the Alliance where they would agree to the UNM package, but sign with the caveat that they did not agree to a 30 percent threshold. Bakradze observed that the Alliance had their own reasons to participate in elections so they should also be flexible in their demands. Bakradze said he was open to further compromise if possible, and that he was determined to make sure the process did not end without result. He also agreed with the Ambassador's point that the further the UNM could go on electoral concessions, the better the internal and international perception of the process would be. Bakradze seemed open himself to compromise on the threshold question, but said the UNM has had many heated discussions on the issue, and that he would need to speak with other key players to see if there was any wiggle room for further negotiations on thresholds. The Alliance - the Other Player in Town ¶4. (C) Poloff spoke to Alliance member David Usupashvili (Republicans) who was unaware of Bakradze's proposal for a potential compromise on consensus between the UNM and Qpotential compromise on consensus between the UNM and Alliance. Usupashvili confirmed that quiet discussions between the UNM and Alliance had been ongoing. Usupashvili said that the Alliance told the UNM that it would agree on a 40 percent threshold. Usupashvili confirmed to Poloff that the Republicans would participate in elections regardless of what the ELWG achieved making it unlikely (and in his view unnecessary) that they would agree to support part of the UNM proposal with reservations. Usupashvili said he was confident the Alasania-led Our Georgia - Free Democrats and David Gamkrelidze-led New Rights would also participate in local elections regardless of the outcome of discussions. Usupashvili noted that this limited the Alliance's bargaining power, but felt there was no other alternative. Usupashvili shared the Alliance's internal numbers for Tbilisi mayor with Poloff that showed current mayor Gigi Ugalava (UNM) with 31 percent support, followed by Alasania with 21 percent, then Shalva Natelashvili (Labor) at 7 percent, and a Christian Democratic Movement (CDM) Candidate at 5 percent with Levan Gachechiladze and a National Forum candidate both polling at just under 5 percent. (Embassy Comment: Other polling indicates a wider spread between Ugulava and everyone else. End Comment.) TBILISI 00002056 002 OF 002 A Tough Political Neighborhood ¶5. (C) Usupashvili explained that the Alliance would be criticized by the non-parliamentary opposition regardless of what agreement they struck, therefore they had decided to proceed ahead on their own. Usupashvili lamented that a number in the non-parliamentary opposition were already naming candidates (Zviad Dzidziguri (Conservatives) and Koba Davitashvili (People's Party)) and trying to extract a political price to throw their support behind a single candidate. Usupashvili lumped Levan Gachechiladze into the category of those looking for some sort of political payoff and dismissed the idea of a primary as unserious. Usupashvili said that the Alliance preferred to run on its own and for that, a 40 percent concession was essential. Usupashvili explained to Poloff that the Alliance did not want to join some sort of grand united opposition, and he hoped the UNM would realize that the Alliance, CDM, and UNM all had a vested interest in working together to sideline a number of more marginal radical players in the non-parliamentary opposition. (Embassy Comment: Usupashvili's logic is correct in that a higher threshold and potential second round greatly reduces the leverage the non-parliamentary opposition can exert on the more moderate Alliance. If the threshold is lower, Alasania will likely have to make significant political concessions to Gachechiladze and other more radical members in order to gain their support to win a first round over Ugulava outright. End Comment.) Usupashvili said that he hoped the UNM would see that a concession on threshold would ensure that the moderates in the non-parliamentary opposition gained an upper hand which in his view over the long term, benefited the UNM, CDM, and Alliance alike. BASS