GEORGIA: PUBLIC MORE OPTIMISTIC, BENEFITTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001932

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: PUBLIC MORE OPTIMISTIC, BENEFITTING
SAAKASHVILI, BUT ECONOMY AND TERRITORIES STILL DOMINATE

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN R. BASS FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d).


1. (C) Summary: Georgians are more optimistic about their
futures even as they struggle economically, according to the
International Republican Institute's (IRI) latest poll. The
shift in mood and economic stabilization have benefited the
President and his party; Saakashvili received a 10 point
personal bounce. Opposition parties and leaders fared
poorly, a carryover from last spring's counterproductive,
unpopular street protests. The big question is how
Saakashvili will interpret the results. We are working to
persuade him to use this bounce to move smartly on several
key democratic reforms. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: The ruling National Movement leaders likely
view these numbers with confidence -- a confidence which
could lead them to inaction. It will be important that we
and our European partners urge quick action on reform in the
window before municipal elections in May 2010. The November
Democracy Working Group provides an excellent venue for this
discussion. Another take-away from the data below is the
breadth of concern in Georgia's society for reintegration of
the territories -- the President's focus reflects the
thinking of the citizens of Georgia, not just his own
pre-occupations. End Comment.

OVERALL OUTLOOK IS IMPROVING, AND THE PUBLIC OVERWHELMINGLY
CONDEMNS PROTESTS


3. (C) The October results shows that Georgians are more
optimistic than in the past about both political stability
and the economy. The percentage of Georgians who think the
country is going in the right direction jumped 15 points
(from 26 percent in June to 41 percent in October). The poll
seems to indicate the perception that the economic situation
is stabilizing with most Georgians responding that their
economic situation has improved or at least stayed the same
(59 percent in October as compared to 42.3 percent in June).
Fifty-nine percent of respondents evaluate President
Saakashvili and the GOG's performance during the financial
crisis as positive which is up compared to 47 percent in
June.


4. (C) The number one issue of importance to Georgians
remains unemployment. When those polled were asked to self
identify the most important issue facing the country, they
chose unemployment (59 percent) though territorial integrity
remained second at 45 percent. Respondents overwhelmingly
indicated that the government should carry out economic
reforms first before other fields such as healthcare,
education, and defense (73 percent in Tbilisi, 72 percent in
the regions). Internal politics has almost copletely fallen
off Georgians' radar and was mentioned by only four percent
of those polled as a concern. In June, that number was 50
percent. Fear of war (translation: another Russian invasion)
is the number one Georgian fear (mentioned by 58 percent).


5. (C) Respondents are strongly against aggressive forms of
protest with 90 percent responding that actions including the
occupation of buildings and the blocking of roads, buildings,
railway lines, and airports are unacceptable. Georgians even
appear to be against peaceful forms of protest with at least
50 percent responding that petitions, legal demonstrations,
and legal strikes are unacceptable forms of protest. An
overwhelming majority (72 percent) said they do not support
further street protests in the fall. The IRI Country
Qfurther street protests in the fall. The IRI Country
Director (strictly protect),who briefed many of the
political parties on the poll results, said that Salome
Zourabichvili, leader of the Way of Georgia Party, was
questioning the future of her party's direction given the
strong aversion to protest action in the country.
Zourabichvili's party has relied almost exclusively on street
action as its means of political engagement in the past.
Interest in politics in general decreased with 40 percent of
respondents saying they have a low interest as compared to 34
percent in June.

IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY...


6. (C) Respondents want the GOG and opposition to maintain a
dialogue (81 percent in June, 85 percent in October). A
majority of respondents, 62 percent, say that the
non-parliamentary opposition should unite to elect a single
leader. Almost all the respondents (95 percent) believe that
relations with the United States are good and a majority (60
percent) feel that the United States is Georgia's most
important partner. NATO increased in popularity with 54
percent supporting joining the institution versus 45 percent
in June. 38 percent of those polled saw joining NATO as more
important than joining the EU, an increase of ten percent

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from June. Thirty-eight percent of respondents blamed Russia
and the existence of conflicts (35 percent) as the biggest
hindrance to Georgia's NATO membership as opposed to a lack
of reforms (9 percent).


7. (C) The Georgian Orthodox Church continues to garner the
most confidence from respondents (93 percent) closely
followed by the army (84 percent) and the police (82
percent). The constitutional commission and the electoral
working group only received a 28 percent favorable confidence
rating; only trade unions (25 percent) and the Mafia network
(10 percent) received lower. The ruling United National
Movement (UNM) continues hold the top spot as the party that
can best deal with Georgia's problems (35 percent) followed
by the Christian-Democratic Movement (13 percent),Alliance
for Georgia (12 percent),and the Labor Party (9 percent).
Trust in the UNM rose 8 percent from June. The biggest leap,
however; was Alasania's Alliance for Georgia which doubled
its numbers in this trust measurement from June (6 percent).

8. (C) If parliamentary elections were held today, the ruling
UNM would garner 43 percent of the vote followed by
Alasania's Alliance (10 percent),Natelashvili's Labor (7
percent),and Targamadze's Christian-Democratic Movement (6
percent). In this poll, Alasania bested Natelashvili and
Targamadze who were tied for the second spot in June's poll.
Nino Burjanadze's Democratic Movement-United Georgia took the
number one spot for the party that respondents would never
vote for (20 percent). Saakashvili continues to lead in
favorable ratings (70 percent) followed by Sozar Subari (64
percent),Irakli Alasania (63 percent),and Giorgi Targamadze
(62 percent). If presidential elections were held without
Saakashvili, Alasania would garner 20 percent of the vote
followed by Targamadze (16 percent). However with
Saakashvili as a candidate, Alasania drops to 14 percent, and
Targamadze and Natelashvili both to 8 percent. Saakashvili
himself had 39 percent (Embassy note: Saakashvili is
term-limited and may not run again. End note). IRI's Country
Director said that, during the briefing to parties, many of
the opposition parties had expected a drop in their ratings
and were pleasantly surprised to see that they were not
lower. UNM told the Country Director that they were pleased
that their ratings confirmed their own private polling
results and were not surprised by their increase in
popularity.

MORE TRANSPARENCY WANTED


9. (C) The poll also indicated that Georgians do not feel
they receive sufficient information -- 85 percent responded
that they are not well informed, not at all informed, or
don't know about the activities of their local government.
Most respondents said that are not receiving enough
information on the Constitutional Commission (58 percent) and
the electoral code working group (60 percent). Almost all
respondents receive their information from television (94
percent). Rustavi 2 (88 percent) and Imedi (87 percent)
remain the most-watched and most-trusted TV channels. Media
freedom was rated somewhat better with 52 percent of
respondents saying that media was at least somewhat free as
compared to 45 percent in June. Within the 34 percent who
said that the media was not free, 70 percent said it was due
to government pressure on the media. Weekly internet usage
increased slightly from 17 percent in June to 20 percent in
Qincreased slightly from 17 percent in June to 20 percent in
October. There is a large gap in weekly internet usage
comparing Tbilisi (49 percent) to the regions (12 percent).


10. (SBU) The International Republican Institute (IRI)
conducte a nationwide poll from September 29 to October 5,
2009 and put questions to 1500 Georgians aged 18 years and
older in face-to-face interviews.
BASS