GEORGIA: NON-PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION TRYING TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001853 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: NON-PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION TRYING TO REGROUP, STILL NO CONSENSUS ON APPROACH Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES A. I. KENT D. LOGSDON FOR REASONS: 1.4 (b) AND (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The non-parliamentary opposition has spent much of the last three months since July when the final "cells" were taken off of Rustaveli Avenue prior to the Vice President's visit staying out of the spotlight. Behind the scenes, leaders have been engaged in largely fruitless discussions as to how to proceed strategically and tactically in the aftermath of the failed spring protests. Irakli Alasania's (Our Georgia - Free Democrats) announcement that he would run for Tbilisi mayor has been ignored by his non-parliamentary colleagues who are not ready to make any commitments to support him -- or even participate in the elections. Former Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli is focused on policy rather than politics and remains a marginal political figure without a party base and not engaged with other non-parliamentary leaders. Salome Zourabichvili now talks in terms of a total struggle, that would include both a return to the street and participation in upcoming mayoral and local elections. Meanwhile, the courting of former presidential candidate Levan Gachechiladze remains an important goal for both Alasania and former Speaker Nino Burjanadze, who remains on the radical fringe and is apparently most prepared to return to the street. End Summary. Alasania Announces Bid for Tbilisi Mayor - Other Opposition Yawns ¶2. (C) Irakli Alasania's announcement that he intended to run for Tbilisi mayor in the upcoming local elections scheduled for May 2010 received little comment from other opposition figures. Some among the non-parliamentary opposition have been exploring the idea of a primary to choose one candidate to represent all of the non-parliamentary opposition in mayoral elections, notably the Conservative party. Alasania said he would agree to participate in a primary if one were held. Nino Burjanadze (Democratic Movement - United Georgia) told the Charge that it was premature to declare one's intentions concerning the upcoming elections. Burjanadze said in principle she did not oppose the opposition uniting behind one candidate but such questions should be answered after the election schedule was set and the new election code was adopted. Burjanadze said she would likely boycott the 2010 local elections because she had little faith they would be free nd fair. Former Presidential Candidate Levan Gachechiladze also said publicly that he had not made up his mind whether or not to run for Tbilisi mayor. Gachechiladze stated that he had a good relationship with Alasania but stopped well short of supporting Alasania's bid for mayor. ¶3. (C) Salome Zourabichvili (Georgia's Way),like Burjanadze, told the Charge that it was too early to unite behind any one candidate although she did not oppose such an idea if it made sense politically. Zourabichvili said it was counterproductive to boycott elections, and that she would participate in local elections even if they were not "free and fair." Zourabichvili said that consultations were going on between opposition parties but nothing concrete had been decided as far as tactics or strategy. She said she found nothing inconsistent with some in the opposition pursuing dialogue while others took to the streets. Zourabichvili rejected the "constructive" versus "radical" opposition characterization of the non-parliamentary opposition calling Qcharacterization of the non-parliamentary opposition calling it a GoG tactic. She claimed that the opposition was united in its desire to remove Saakashvili from office and hold elections. She characterized the opposition movement as a struggle that should take many forms including negotiations if appropriate, participation in elections, and peaceful street protests. Both Zourabichvili and Burjanadze have indicated that November 7 (the second anniversary of the Government's crackdown on demonstrators in front of the Parliament) is the obvious target date for the next non-parliamentary opposition public action -- the only question remaining is what form it will take and who participate. Let's Unite - Behind Me, of Course ¶4. (C) Burjanadze held a news conference and launched thinly veiled criticism toward Alasania and others by saying that "futile compromise, negotiations and dialogue with this criminal regime is useless and possibly disastrous." Burjanadze called on opposition forces to form a united front where "mutually agreed upon actions would prevail over competition between separate leaders." Burjanadze privately told the Charge that dialogue with the GoG was pointless, and that Alasania and others were naive to believe anything could TBILISI 00001853 002 OF 002 be accomplished through negotiation. During the press conference, Burjanadze noted that she had been holding negotiations with opposition political parties but refused to name them. New Rights leader (an Alasania ally) Mamuka Katsitadze shot back refuting Burjanadze's claim saying "there are no serious consultations being held between opposition parties." Noghaideli Outlines Plan - Sort of ¶5. (C) Former Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli (Movement for Fair Georgia) briefed the diplomatic corps on his plans to promote his new policy initiatives. Noghaideli sharply criticized the Saakashvili government for not reaching out to South Ossetian and Abkhaz de facto authorities. Noghaideli said that negotiations were essential and everything, including independence should be on the table. (Embassy Comment: Noghaideli does not support an independent South Ossetia or Abkhazia, but believes that if serious negotiations are to occur, independence cannot be eliminated from discussions otherwise the South Ossetians and Abkhaz simply would refuse to participate. End Comment.) Noghaideli stressed that bridges needed to be built between Georgia and the occupied territories; therefore, he supported lifting the economic embargo and allow goods destined for Abkhazia to be offloaded at Poti and transported across the administrative boundary. Noghaideli said he would make further policy initiatives known at an upcoming party congress. He also stated that he would participate in local elections. (Embassy Comment: Noghaideli emphasized his policy concerns, but seemed at a loss as to how to explain how he would develop and expand his party. End Comment.) Embassy Comment - What's Really Going On and Where's Levan? ¶6. (C) Immediately after announcing his candidacy for mayor, Alasania went to meet with Gachechiladze, tacitly highlighting the important role Gachechiladze still plays in opposition circles. Reportedly, Burjanadze is also trying to curry support from Gachechiladze for her more radical aims. Publicly, Gachechiladze remains non-committal. Alasania understands that winning Gachechiladze's support, or at least making sure Gachechiladze does not publicly oppose him in local elections, is an almost essential component if he is to win mayoral elections. For Burjanadze, successfully convincing Gachechiladze to support her more radical aims serves a dual purpose. Burjanadze herself can not bring the masses to the streets, and she is loathe to engage the only other opposition politician besides Gachechiladze who can, Labor leader Shalva Natelashvili. Therefore, if Burjanadze's plan to stage large scale protests is to come to fruition, she needs Gachechiladze's participation. Likewise, convincing Gachechiladze either to run for mayor or support protests would deal a blow to her main rival Alasania. Burjanadze appears aware that she has little to no chance of winning the Tbilisi mayoral elections, which is likely the real reason behind her intentions to boycott local elections. Alasania winning the mayoral post, viewed as a possible stepping stone to the presidency, would deal a severe blow to Burjanadze's own presidential ambitions. Despite his obvious limitations as a politician and political thinker, Gachechiladze's street credibility in opposition circles will allow himto continue to play a key role in determining the tactics, strategy, and ultimately the direction of the Qtactics, strategy, and ultimately the direction of the non-parliamentary opposition away from, or back to the streets. LOGSDON