GEORGIA: NON-PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION TRYING TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001853

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: NON-PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION TRYING TO
REGROUP, STILL NO CONSENSUS ON APPROACH

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES A. I. KENT D. LOGSDON FOR REASONS: 1.4
(b) AND (d).


1. (C) Summary: The non-parliamentary opposition has spent
much of the last three months since July when the final
"cells" were taken off of Rustaveli Avenue prior to the Vice
President's visit staying out of the spotlight. Behind the
scenes, leaders have been engaged in largely fruitless
discussions as to how to proceed strategically and tactically
in the aftermath of the failed spring protests. Irakli
Alasania's (Our Georgia - Free Democrats) announcement that
he would run for Tbilisi mayor has been ignored by his
non-parliamentary colleagues who are not ready to make any
commitments to support him -- or even participate in the
elections. Former Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli is focused
on policy rather than politics and remains a marginal
political figure without a party base and not engaged with
other non-parliamentary leaders. Salome Zourabichvili now
talks in terms of a total struggle, that would include both a
return to the street and participation in upcoming mayoral
and local elections. Meanwhile, the courting of former
presidential candidate Levan Gachechiladze remains an
important goal for both Alasania and former Speaker Nino
Burjanadze, who remains on the radical fringe and is
apparently most prepared to return to the street. End
Summary.

Alasania Announces Bid for Tbilisi Mayor - Other Opposition
Yawns


2. (C) Irakli Alasania's announcement that he intended to
run for Tbilisi mayor in the upcoming local elections
scheduled for May 2010 received little comment from other
opposition figures. Some among the non-parliamentary
opposition have been exploring the idea of a primary to
choose one candidate to represent all of the
non-parliamentary opposition in mayoral elections, notably
the Conservative party. Alasania said he would agree to
participate in a primary if one were held. Nino Burjanadze
(Democratic Movement - United Georgia) told the Charge that
it was premature to declare one's intentions concerning the
upcoming elections. Burjanadze said in principle she did not
oppose the opposition uniting behind one candidate but such
questions should be answered after the election schedule was
set and the new election code was adopted. Burjanadze said
she would likely boycott the 2010 local elections because she
had little faith they would be free nd fair. Former
Presidential Candidate Levan Gachechiladze also said publicly
that he had not made up his mind whether or not to run for
Tbilisi mayor. Gachechiladze stated that he had a good
relationship with Alasania but stopped well short of
supporting Alasania's bid for mayor.


3. (C) Salome Zourabichvili (Georgia's Way),like
Burjanadze, told the Charge that it was too early to unite
behind any one candidate although she did not oppose such an
idea if it made sense politically. Zourabichvili said it was
counterproductive to boycott elections, and that she would
participate in local elections even if they were not "free
and fair." Zourabichvili said that consultations were going
on between opposition parties but nothing concrete had been
decided as far as tactics or strategy. She said she found
nothing inconsistent with some in the opposition pursuing
dialogue while others took to the streets. Zourabichvili
rejected the "constructive" versus "radical" opposition
characterization of the non-parliamentary opposition calling
Qcharacterization of the non-parliamentary opposition calling
it a GoG tactic. She claimed that the opposition was united
in its desire to remove Saakashvili from office and hold
elections. She characterized the opposition movement as a
struggle that should take many forms including negotiations
if appropriate, participation in elections, and peaceful
street protests. Both Zourabichvili and Burjanadze have
indicated that November 7 (the second anniversary of the
Government's crackdown on demonstrators in front of the
Parliament) is the obvious target date for the next
non-parliamentary opposition public action -- the only
question remaining is what form it will take and who
participate.

Let's Unite - Behind Me, of Course


4. (C) Burjanadze held a news conference and launched
thinly veiled criticism toward Alasania and others by saying
that "futile compromise, negotiations and dialogue with this
criminal regime is useless and possibly disastrous."
Burjanadze called on opposition forces to form a united front
where "mutually agreed upon actions would prevail over
competition between separate leaders." Burjanadze privately
told the Charge that dialogue with the GoG was pointless, and
that Alasania and others were naive to believe anything could

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be accomplished through negotiation. During the press
conference, Burjanadze noted that she had been holding
negotiations with opposition political parties but refused to
name them. New Rights leader (an Alasania ally) Mamuka
Katsitadze shot back refuting Burjanadze's claim saying
"there are no serious consultations being held between
opposition parties."

Noghaideli Outlines Plan - Sort of


5. (C) Former Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli (Movement for
Fair Georgia) briefed the diplomatic corps on his plans to
promote his new policy initiatives. Noghaideli sharply
criticized the Saakashvili government for not reaching out to
South Ossetian and Abkhaz de facto authorities. Noghaideli
said that negotiations were essential and everything,
including independence should be on the table. (Embassy
Comment: Noghaideli does not support an independent South
Ossetia or Abkhazia, but believes that if serious
negotiations are to occur, independence cannot be eliminated
from discussions otherwise the South Ossetians and Abkhaz
simply would refuse to participate. End Comment.)
Noghaideli stressed that bridges needed to be built between
Georgia and the occupied territories; therefore, he supported
lifting the economic embargo and allow goods destined for
Abkhazia to be offloaded at Poti and transported across the
administrative boundary. Noghaideli said he would make
further policy initiatives known at an upcoming party
congress. He also stated that he would participate in local
elections. (Embassy Comment: Noghaideli emphasized his
policy concerns, but seemed at a loss as to how to explain
how he would develop and expand his party. End Comment.)

Embassy Comment - What's Really Going On and Where's Levan?


6. (C) Immediately after announcing his candidacy for
mayor, Alasania went to meet with Gachechiladze, tacitly
highlighting the important role Gachechiladze still plays in
opposition circles. Reportedly, Burjanadze is also trying to
curry support from Gachechiladze for her more radical aims.
Publicly, Gachechiladze remains non-committal. Alasania
understands that winning Gachechiladze's support, or at least
making sure Gachechiladze does not publicly oppose him in
local elections, is an almost essential component if he is to
win mayoral elections. For Burjanadze, successfully
convincing Gachechiladze to support her more radical aims
serves a dual purpose. Burjanadze herself can not bring the
masses to the streets, and she is loathe to engage the only
other opposition politician besides Gachechiladze who can,
Labor leader Shalva Natelashvili. Therefore, if Burjanadze's
plan to stage large scale protests is to come to fruition,
she needs Gachechiladze's participation. Likewise,
convincing Gachechiladze either to run for mayor or support
protests would deal a blow to her main rival Alasania.
Burjanadze appears aware that she has little to no chance of
winning the Tbilisi mayoral elections, which is likely the
real reason behind her intentions to boycott local elections.
Alasania winning the mayoral post, viewed as a possible
stepping stone to the presidency, would deal a severe blow to
Burjanadze's own presidential ambitions. Despite his obvious
limitations as a politician and political thinker,
Gachechiladze's street credibility in opposition circles will
allow himto continue to play a key role in determining the
tactics, strategy, and ultimately the direction of the
Qtactics, strategy, and ultimately the direction of the
non-parliamentary opposition away from, or back to the
streets.
LOGSDON