GEORGIA: ABKHAZ POLITICS HEAT UP AS ELECTIONS DRAW

C O N F I D E N T I A L TBILISI 001713 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF RU GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: ABKHAZ POLITICS HEAT UP AS ELECTIONS DRAW NEAR REF: TBILISI 1665 Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES A.I. KENT LOGSDON FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d). ¶1. (C) Summary and comment. Several recent incidents in Abkhazia point to heightened political tension in the area, including de facto "president" Bagapsh's order to his naval forces to attack Georgian ships entering Abkhaz water (reftel),the passage and repeal of the law on "citizenship" for ethnic Georgians in Gali, and the resignation of de facto secretary of the security council Stanislav Lakoba. These events are part of a larger political environment in which Abkhazia continues to assess its position in relation to Georgia and Russia, especially as it prepares for December "presidential" elections. The issue of "citizenship" and the status of IDPs will likely be major campaign topics. Despite Bagapsh's past reliance on political support from ethnic Georgians in Gali, he essentially allowed a bill he initially championed that would grant Abkhaz "citizenship" to Georgians in Gali to die in "parliament." This is likely because he feared the strong reaction of ethnic Abkhaz could hurt his chances at re-election. Bagapsh's tougher stance on Georgia as of late is likely related to his attempts to gain the confidence of the ethnic Abkhaz in the run-up to the elections. End summary and comment. GETTING TOUGH ON GEORGIAN SHIP SEIZURES ¶2. (C) On September 2, Bagapsh publicly ordered his naval forces to attack Georgian ships entering "Abkhaz" waters, a retaliatory move against Georgia for its seizures of ships traveling to Abkhazia (reftel). Although such seizures have been taking place for years, including since Russia's recognition of Abkhazia, Bagapsh has chosen this moment, in the months leading up to "presidential" elections, to become suddenly, and uncharacteristically, belligerent. Georgian Reintegration Minister Yakobashvili noted that Bagapsh's recent change in rhetoric is largely due to the upcoming "elections" and is aimed at gaining voters. These threats are not perceived as serious; rather, they are seen as part of the larger political game. LAW ON CITIZENSHIP - PASSED, REPEALED, DEAD ¶3. (C) On July 31, the Abkhaz de facto "parliament" passed an amendment to the law on Abkhaz citizenship granting Georgians who returned to Gali prior to 2005 the opportunity to obtain Abkhaz citizenship. However, many opposition groups in Abkhazia denounced the agreement, saying that Gali residents have no serious loyalty to Abkhazia and that this law would lead to an equal number of citizens of Georgian ethnicity as of Abkhaz origin, something they consider unacceptable. They further claimed that this amendment was timed so Bagapsh could capitalize on the votes of ethnic Georgians in Gali for the December elections, who voted overwhelming for him during the last elections in 2005. Because of these concerns, the "parliament" revoked its decision, with Bagapsh later returning the bill to "parliament" for further review. There has been no further discussion of passing the amendment. The Abkhaz press reported that Bagapsh denied in a September 2 government meeting that he was "after the votes of Gali residents," but that the legal status of those in Gali needed to be determined, stating that "we should not turn Gali into a reservation." RESIGNATION OF LAKOBA ¶4. (C) De facto secretary of the Abkhaz security council, Stanislav Lakoba, resigned his post on August 18, due in part, he claimed, to disagreements over the law on citizenship, which he did not endorse, as well as other Qcitizenship, which he did not endorse, as well as other unspecified issues. Georgian press and some officials in Abkhazia speculate that the resignation of Lakoba, considered an Abkhaz nationalist, is related to his desire to undermine Bagapsh in the upcoming elections. In an interview with the Caucasian Knot on September 3, he claimed that he would not participate in the election nor join the opposition. However, some observers speculate that he could play a role behind the scenes. As the election approaches, his possible involvement in the race for the "presidency" will become more clear. LOGSDON