GEORGIA: THE RULING PARTY REFLECTS, DEVELOPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000165 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: THE RULING PARTY REFLECTS, DEVELOPS STRATEGY FOR 2009 REF: TBILISI 132 Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary/Comment: While highly confident in their ability to serve out their mandates, the leaders of the United National Movement (UNM) have gone through a period of self-evaluation as to how best to effectuate their political and policy aims in the coming year. UNM is poised to resume its legislative push for democratic reform. Quietly, President Saakashvili has been meeting with various academics and analysts in an attempt to broaden the range of policy discussion beyond his small group of trusted advisors at the urging of various UNM members. The amount of influence these members have had on Saakashvili's reignited push for democratic reform is hard to say. However, it is clear that a number of influential Ministers and lawmakers are giving President Saakashvili the message that more openness and reform is needed. Feeling as though they need to re-engage with the public, UNM leaders are hitting the airwaves to defend themselves from criticism and promote their policy agenda. Saakashvili himself jump-started the effort by taking four hours of public questions on January 23 (reftel A). While too early to tell what this change in strategy will mean in concrete terms, the UNM's willingness to critically evaluate their performance, especially while enjoying a substantial parliamentary majority and electoral security, sets them apart from their competitors. The UNM has shown itself to be a savvy party with a deep bench of talent and would be a formidable foe, even for a united, coherent and focused opposition. End Summary/Comment. NEW ELECTIONS HIGHLY UNLIKELY ¶2. (C) Akaki Minashvili (UNM - Head of Foreign Relations Committee) told Poloff that early elections will not be held, echoing what UNM MP's Giorgi Kandelaki and Irakli Kavtaradze told us recently. Minashvili dismissed the possibility that the non-parliamentary opposition could force new elections saying the public did not support new elections, and there was no reason for Saakashvili to call them. David Dondua, Deputy Chief of Cabinet, who advises Speaker David Bakradze also said elections were highly unlikely but that one never knows if Saakashvili will change his mind. (Embassy Note: Dondua, former MFA Political Directorr, is more of a foreign policy specialist than a party politician. End Note.) Minashvili was not surprised that the non-parliamentary opposition's demand was the resignation of Saakashvili followed by snap Presidential elections. He said the non-parliamentary opposition stood to gain some seats in early parliamentary elections but UNM would still form a substantial majority. Minashvili opined that no current opposition figure could even come close to beating Saakashvili in a presidential election, leaving the non-parliamentary oppositio with only one logical course -- to pursue presidential elections without Saakashvili. Minashvili outlined the UNM counter-strategy. According to Minashvili, UNM through various polling data understands that the public's main concerns are economic. Also well aware that calls for early elections are not popular, UNM plans to paint the non-parliamentary opposition's demands for new elections as a costly "do over" whose sole purpose is to allow non-parliamentary leaders to regain lost political relevance. President Saakashvili has made numerous public statement in this direction, recently saying he would not call new elections based on the "whims and ambitions of certain persons". Qcertain persons". WE BECAME COMPLACENT ¶3. (C) Minashvili lamented the fact that UNM's drive for democratic reform lost steam in recent years. During and after the August war, the GOG had operated in strict crisis mode which did not lend itself to much introspection. Now that the acute crisis has largely subsided, Minashvili said the UNM was in the process of reassessing political mistakes (much as the UNM-dominated GOG has been reassessing shortcomings in the leadup to the August war). Minashvili said it was easy to become complacent after the 2008 elections in which UNM won an overwhelming mandate. According to Minashvili, the lack of a coherent opposition with competing policy objectives lulled the UNM into losing its focus. The UNM intends to gain back its strength which was its ability to deliver tangible economic and democratic change. The August war and its aftermath made UNM realize it had become insular and had largely stopped direct engagement with the public. ¶4. (C) Highlighting its shift of strategy, prominent GOG figures such as Tbilisi Mayor Gigi Ugulava, Minister for Economic Development Lasha Zhvania, and other UNM officials have been appearing on political talk shows. Minashvili TBILISI 00000165 002 OF 002 complained to Poloff about the abundance of talkshows and the time demands it put on him and his colleagues to appear, but at the same time acknowledged the necessity of standing before a critical host and defending the GOG's record. UNM members have even been appearing on Kavkasia, ending their "boycott" of the "pro-Opposition" channel. Minashvili said the consensus is that the UNM had much to gain by detailing accomplishments and policy substance to the public. Dondua acknowledged the increased presence of UNM figures on television, though he cautioned that they needed to find the right balance. Dondua was concerned that UNM might over-saturate the airwaves which could be detrimental to their aims. Nevertheless, President Saakashvili took four hours of public questions on January 23. Minashvili says more frequent TV appearances by UNM members produce the added benefit of exposing the non-parliamentary opposition's lack of policy aims and goals. Whether the media "blitz" proves successful for the UNM or not, if it fosters a public debate on competing policy agendas, Georgia's democracy is the ultimate beneficiary. ¶5. (C) Minashvili hinted that the UNM had become somewhat intellectually stagnant and disengaged in pushing forward policy goals since mid-2008. He hailed the U.S.-Georgia Charter as providing a new impetus to further domestic political and economic reform. Recent reports have hit the press that President Saakashvili has been meeting privately with intellectuals, educators, and others for extended sessions. Foreign Minister Vashadze told the Ambassador that Saakashvili had been doing this at his and Minister for Reintegration Temuri Yakobashvili's urging. Vashadze told the Ambassador the meetings are one of the positive ways Saakashvili has changed since the end of the war. According to acquaintances of Embassy staff, some of whom confirmed that they personally took part in some discussions with the President, during these meetings Saakashvili listened and engaged in vigorous debate with the invitees. On January 21, President Saakashvili offered a number of experts and analysts the opportunity to sit on a policy advisory board. While non-parliamentary leaders have predictably dismissed this as show, Minashvili confirmed that Saakashvili is re-engaged and listening to wide range of opinions both inside his party and out. Saakashvili has made a number of public announcements about his admiration of George Washington and his desire for his legacy to be that of "somebody who made Georgia a modern European state". What the "revival" of the UNM's democratic reform agenda will mean in practical policy terms is still unclear. Nevertheless, at least on the surface, UNM from the President on down seems re-energized and recommitted to a reform agenda. LEGISLATIVE AGENDA ¶6. (C) UNM hopes the Parliament will pass the new Criminal Procedure Code in February. Minashvili told Poloff the draft (put together with USG assistance) was being reviewed by a Council of Europe team of experts. Once the review is complete, parliamentary debate will begin. Minashvili expected little substantive disagreement between the UNM and parliamentary opposition parties on the draft law which should allow for its quick adoption. Minashvili said work on a new Electoral Code will remain a UNM priority (septel). Dondua confirmed the UNM's legislative agenda and the Speaker's desire to adopt a new Electoral Code. Dondua hoped for widespread input across the political spectrum, but he Qwas not optimistic that those in the non-parliamentary minority were willing to play a constructive role. Dondua told Poloff that Parliament also would work on increasing the diversity of opinion on Georgian Public TV, consistent with its aim to foster more media access across the spectrum. ¶7. (C) Minashvili, a member of the Ad Hoc Parliamentary Commission to review the August war, said the members intended to meticulously oversee the implementation of their recommendations to improve the GOG's institutional capacity to respond to further Russian threats (or other threats) to Georgia's security. Minashvili also noted that UNM parliamentarians plan to closely monitor how foreign assistance is spent, making sure it is used as intended. Similarly, UNM will put forth legislation to reorganize the way social payments are distributed focusing on financial need rather than social "category", which should have the effect of better targeting limited resources to those who truly need help. Minashvili and Dondua stressed that the UNM would be watching the economic status of the poor closely. UNM will adjust the budget accordingly to ensure the poorest in Georgia do not disproportionately feel the effects of the economic slowdown. Seeing the economy as its one potential weakness, the UNM is intent on making sure the global economic crisis does not result in a domestic political one. TEFFT