GEORGIA: IRI POLL SHOWS SAAKASHVILI MORE POPULAR,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 001291 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: IRI POLL SHOWS SAAKASHVILI MORE POPULAR, PROTESTS INEFFECTIVE REF: A. TBILISI 0522 ¶B. TBILISI 1058 Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Summary/Comment: An International Republican Institute (IRI) poll was carried out from June 16th to June 25th, 2009 and polled 1500 Georgians aged 18 years and older in face-to-face interviews. The International Republican Institute found few surprises in its June polling data. The statistics track with other polling done during the last six months, including the NDI/Caucasian Research Resource Center poll (ref B). President Saakashvili and the UNM's numbers remain strong, with Saakashvili still polling well on economic concerns - the main focus on the minds of the Georgian public. Territorial integrity remains important. The numbers show that Georgians are not supportive of the protest rallies or the non-parliamentary opposition's recent actions. Apart from Irakli Alasania, the non-parliamentary opposition who participated in protests have seen their favorability rankings and popularity plummet. As in other polls, Alasania's strong numbers seem to be due to a public perception that he represents a moderate alternative to the UNM. The data clearly show that the decision to protest continually, using tactics like blocking roads and corridors of shame was and is likely to continue to be deeply unpopular. End Summary/Comment. President,s Popularity Up From February, Opposition (Mostly) Down ¶2. (C) President Saakashvili's favorability rating (59 favorable, 36 unfavorable) has increased from IRI's February 2009 poll (54 favorable, 38 unfavorable). Ombudsman Sozar Subari continues to have a strong approval rating (68 favorable, 18 unfavorable),as does Refugee Minister Koba Subeliani (61 favorable, 24 unfavorable). The majority of Georgians (52 percent) said the President should not resign, compared to 31 percent who said he should. If presidential elections were held tomorrow, 33 percent of Georgians said they would vote for Saakashvili (compared to 34 in February) who is followed by Irakli Alasania (10),Shalva Natelashvili (10),and Giorgi Targamadze (6). When the President is evaluated on his performance during the financial crisis, 47 percent ranked his performance as very or somewhat positive against 42 percent who ranked it as negative or somewhat negative (from 42 positive/somewhat positive, 46 negative/somewhat negative in February). Saakashvili continues to out-poll his possible presidential rivals when voters are asked who is best to fix unemployment (39 percent),and 38 percent said he is best to lead Georgia during the World Financial Crisis (34 in February). The numbers do not indicate widespread public dissatisfaction with the president's handling of the economy. Similarly, 35 percent agree he is best able to fix the issue of territorial integrity. When respondents were asked how they rank political parties, UNM ranks at 28 percent support as a first choice and 3 percent as a second, a slight drop from February (31, 4). Other results in descending order respectively showing first choice, second choice numbers: Labor (Natelashvili) 9,6 - CDM (Targamadze) 9,8 - Party of Alasania 7,8 - National Forum 5,3 - New Rights/Republicans 4,5 - For United Georgia (Okruashvili) 2,4, Democratic Movement/United Georgia (Burjanadze) 2,2. ¶3. (C) Popularity ratings for opposition leaders dropped, with the noticable exception of Alasania and Natelashvili. Alasania is the most popular (55 favorable, 30 unfavorable (June 2009) - 45, 30 (February 2009)); followed by Giorgi Q(June 2009) - 45, 30 (February 2009)); followed by Giorgi Targamadze (55, 33 - 64, 22); Irakli Okruashvili (44, 43 - 50, 34); David Gamkrelidze (44, 43 - 48, 38); Shalva Natelashvili (43, 46 - 37, 50); Kakha Shartava (42, 33 - not polled); Gubaz Sanikidze (42, 35 - not polled); David Usupashvili (41, 40 - 46, 35); Levan Gachechiladze 38, 50 - 39, 45); Salome Zurabichvili (26, 61 - 32, 52); Nino Burjanadze (21, 71 - 36, 55). In the hypothetical presidential election respondents were less likely to vote for non-parliamentary leaders with the exception of Alasania, who maintains relative popularity (10 percent said they would vote for him tomorrow, compared to 8 percent in February). Shalva Natelashvili's popularity has increased, and 10 percent said they would vote for him, up 4 points from February (Embassy Comment. Natelashvili's recent bump may well indicate that Natelashvili's alternative message of an expansive government role in the economy has resonated with people in difficult economic times. End note.) Economy and Territorial Integrity Continue to Predominate - Internal Crisis More Pressing than Fear of War ¶4. (C) Currently only 26 percent of Georgians think the country is moving in the right direction versus 63 percent TBILISI 00001291 002 OF 003 who think things are moving in the wrong direction (27 right, 59 wrong in February 2009 poll). Economic discontent continues to be the government's biggest test, with 71 percent of Georgians saying the economy has worsened in the last two months. Georgians continue to feel (57 percent) that their personal financial situation has worsened in this time frame, with 38 percent saying it has stayed the same. The numbers are slightly more positive than Februarys poll (62 percent worsened, 33 percent same). Respondents indicate that unemployment is still the most important issue Georgia is facing (26 percent first mention, 48 percent all mentions),though this is a slight decrease from the February 2009 Poll (27, 52). Territorial integrity ranks next (19 first, 37 all) followed by the economic situation (12 first, 29 all),which has dropped since February (17, 37). While February,s poll indicated that the threat of war was the fourth most important issue (9 first, 15 all),this number has dropped significantly to (2 first mention, 5 all mentions) in the latest poll. Instead, the Political crisis/internal political situation has become the fourth most important issue (11 first, 23 all). In spite of the negative economic numbers, 47 percent of Georgians rate Saakashvili's performance during the financial crisis as very or somewhat positive versus 42 percent who rate his performance as somewhat or very negative up from 42 positive versus 48 negative in the February 2009 poll. Protests Have Accomplished Nothing - Simply About Power ¶5. (C) Respondents showed a significant backlash against the protests and the non-parliamentary opposition's tactics. Only "collecting signatures for a petition" was deemed more acceptable than not (49 percent acceptable, 42 unacceptable versus 74 percent acceptable, 18 not acceptable in February 2009). All other forms of protests have become more unpopular. In descending order: legal demonstrations (46 acceptable, 47 unacceptable versus 65 acceptable, 28 unacceptable in February 2009); legal strike (41, 51 versus 54, 37); boycott (28, 65 versus 48, 46); corridor of shame (17, 74 versus 27, 67),demonstrations without permission (14, 79 versus 21, 72); blocking of roads (7, 86 versus 10, 85); occupation of buildings (5, 88 versus 10, 85); blocking of railway lines (5, 88 versus 8, 87); and blocking of airports (7, 88 versus 4, 88). The polling data reflect the overwhelming majority opinion (92 percent) who believe that politicians should do everything possible to avoid internal political confrontation versus a small fraction (5 percent) who accept internal political confrontation. ¶6. (C) The vast majority of respondents (75percent) said that the protests have accomplished "nothing" with only a small fraction (16 percent) believing that some of the non-parliamentary opposition's goals were accomplished. A majority (53 percent) said that the protests were about a desire to gain power versus only about a quarter of Georgians who thought the protests were about democratic values (24 percent - 22 percent did not know or did not answer). Polls report that 37 percent feel their opinion of the non-parliamentary opposition has worsened as a result of the protests (44 percent stayed the same - 9 percent improved). The parliamentary opposition has also seen its numbers suffer as a result of the protest with 25 percent saying their opinion of the parliamentary opposition worsened as a result of the protests (52 percent stayed the same - 9 percent improved). The government also did not gain from the Qimproved). The government also did not gain from the protests with 26 percent saying their opinion of government has worsened (53 percent stayed the same, 14 percent improved). Despite the widespread displeasure with the opposition and its tactics, 91 percent of Georgians think it is important to have a political opposition up from 85 percent in February. (Embassy Note: The 91 percent mark represents a high for the history of the poll. Generally the numbers going back to 2006 were in the low to mid 80s. End Note.) USA and EU popularity up, NATO down slightly ¶7. (C) Positive feelings about the U.S. remain strong, 92 percent of those polled said relations with the U.S. were good (89 percent in February) while 53 percent said the U.S. was the most important partner for Georgia, up from 48 percent in February. On the other hand, 68 percent supported Georgia joining NATO (down from 72 percent in February). When given a choice of priorities, 28 percent support joining NATO over the EU (32 in February),33 percent support joining the EU over NATO (32 in February),while 20 percent support joining both (19 in February). Only 16 percent of Georgians said Georgia will never be a member of NATO which is up significantly from the 5 percent who believed the same in February 2009. When asked what hinders Georgia's ability to join NATO, 39 percent cited the main reason was Russia, while 34 percent chalked it up to the existence of internal TBILISI 00001291 003 OF 003 conflicts. TEFFT