Activist: Andijon Province Has Become a Mini-Turkmenistan

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 000249

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 2018-12-22
TAGS: PHUM PGOV SOCI ECON PREL UZ
SUBJECT: Activist: Andijon Province Has Become a Mini-Turkmenistan
in the Ferghana Valley

REF: a) A.) TASHKENT 003, b) B.) TASHKENT 103

TASHKENT 00000249 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Timothy P Buckley, Second Secretary; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

Like a Mini-Turkmenistan
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1. (C) On March 3 well-known human rights activist and long-time
Embassy contact Saidjahon Zaynabiddinov visited the Embassy and
talked to poloff about current conditions in Andijon Province. He
previously reported that, unusually, the province was being
administered almost entirely by outsiders due to heightened
sensitivity in Tashkent (ref A). Zaynabiddinov reiterated that
"the province is under very strong control," and added that
"Andijon Province has become like Turkmenistan was in the
Turkmenbashi era," with no freedoms and intense scrutiny. He
lamented that Andijon is treated by the government as a special
case even within the Ferghana Valley, and the control is apparently
not as stringent in neighboring Ferghana and Namangan Provinces.
Thus, Andijon is more isolated and compartmentalized from the
country than it was prior to the 2005 incidents.

But Some Perks for Andijon
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2. (C) Zaynabiddinov noted that there are some upsides to the
mutual fear that exists in Andijon, as the government wants to
avoid restlessness and seems to be directing extra resources to the
province. He noted the irony that Andijon residents are now more
docile and less likely to protest than discontent citizens in other
provinces as a result of the brutal crackdown and its aftermath,
yet they are more likely to be mollified with services and
resources. For instance, he mentioned that natural gas supplies to
this farthest corner of the country (high up in a mountain valley
and far away from the natural gas deposits of the desert west) were
consistently strong this winter. Even though it was a mild winter,
he noted the gas was still not always sufficient in neighboring
Ferghana and Namangan Provinces. (Note: Even in Tashkent the
Coca-Cola factory was shut down by a lack of gas supplies, which
had nothing to do with cold weather and may have been due to the
government taking advantage of high export prices at the expense of
meeting domestic demand. Ref B. End note.) He also previously
reported a perceptible drop in corruption among public officials
assigned to Andijon (ref A).

Border is Open but Controlled
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3. (C) He reported that Andijon, which shares a border with
Kyrgyzstan, is again starting to see shuttle traders conducting
trade, which he observed is good for the economy. Yet scrutiny is
still high at the border checkpoints, and it can now take a
half-hour to cross compared to five minutes for locals in the old
days. Zaynabiddinov went to Kyrgyzstan himself recently "just to
test whether or not they would let me through," and he was
satisfied that authorities did not give him any problems. Customs
officers also strictly enforce the amount of goods individuals
carry back, whereas "the Andijon mafia of course coordinates
large-scale shipments." There is also still lingering bitterness
in Andijon over the alleged shooting deaths of five people who were
smuggling goods across the border last September, which he says the
government has no intention of investigating. Despite the location
of the province on a busy border crossing with Kyrgyzstan, many
Chinese goods permeating Uzbekistan are arriving in Andijon bazaars
via other parts of the country since movement is restricted,
according to Zaynabiddinov.

Imprisoned Son Keeps Activist in Check
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4. (C) Zaynabiddinov also reported that his imprisoned son was now
being held in Qarshi Province, which is very difficult to reach and
on the other side of the country from his home in Andijon. He
expressed appreciation for sustained U.S. leadership on human
rights and requested assistance in encouraging the authorities to
at least transfer his son back to Tashkent where he was previously
held. He did just return from visiting his son and commented that
the authorities know his son's incarceration gives the government
leverage in keeping his own human rights activities in check. He

TASHKENT 00000249 002.2 OF 002



noted that his son twice had his original 10-year sentence reduced
during amnesties (each time 25 percent of the remaining sentence
was cut),yet he was not released outright like many other
prisoners. Zaynabiddinov has not heard any rumors about a possible
amnesty in conjunction with the upcoming Navruz spring holiday, and
said last autumn's amnesty was "disappointing."

Comment:
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5. (C) Zaynabiddinov is a reliable contact who, despite strong
personal reasons for disliking the government, provides balanced
and credible insights. Interestingly, Andijon Province does not
look like an area likely to witness social unrest.
BUTCHER

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