Activist: Andijon Province Has Become a Mini-Turkmenistan

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 000249 SIPDIS AMEMBASSY HELSINKI PASS TO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG AMEMBASSY ASTANA PASS TO USOFFICE ALMATY AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PASS TO AMCONSUL HYDERABAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 2018-12-22 TAGS: PHUM PGOV SOCI ECON PREL UZ SUBJECT: Activist: Andijon Province Has Become a Mini-Turkmenistan in the Ferghana Valley REF: a) A.) TASHKENT 003, b) B.) TASHKENT 103 TASHKENT 00000249 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Timothy P Buckley, Second Secretary; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) Like a Mini-Turkmenistan -------------- ¶1. (C) On March 3 well-known human rights activist and long-time Embassy contact Saidjahon Zaynabiddinov visited the Embassy and talked to poloff about current conditions in Andijon Province. He previously reported that, unusually, the province was being administered almost entirely by outsiders due to heightened sensitivity in Tashkent (ref A). Zaynabiddinov reiterated that "the province is under very strong control," and added that "Andijon Province has become like Turkmenistan was in the Turkmenbashi era," with no freedoms and intense scrutiny. He lamented that Andijon is treated by the government as a special case even within the Ferghana Valley, and the control is apparently not as stringent in neighboring Ferghana and Namangan Provinces. Thus, Andijon is more isolated and compartmentalized from the country than it was prior to the 2005 incidents. But Some Perks for Andijon -------------- ¶2. (C) Zaynabiddinov noted that there are some upsides to the mutual fear that exists in Andijon, as the government wants to avoid restlessness and seems to be directing extra resources to the province. He noted the irony that Andijon residents are now more docile and less likely to protest than discontent citizens in other provinces as a result of the brutal crackdown and its aftermath, yet they are more likely to be mollified with services and resources. For instance, he mentioned that natural gas supplies to this farthest corner of the country (high up in a mountain valley and far away from the natural gas deposits of the desert west) were consistently strong this winter. Even though it was a mild winter, he noted the gas was still not always sufficient in neighboring Ferghana and Namangan Provinces. (Note: Even in Tashkent the Coca-Cola factory was shut down by a lack of gas supplies, which had nothing to do with cold weather and may have been due to the 
government taking advantage of high export prices at the expense of meeting domestic demand. Ref B. End note.) He also previously reported a perceptible drop in corruption among public officials assigned to Andijon (ref A). Border is Open but Controlled -------------- ¶3. (C) He reported that Andijon, which shares a border with Kyrgyzstan, is again starting to see shuttle traders conducting trade, which he observed is good for the economy. Yet scrutiny is still high at the border checkpoints, and it can now take a half-hour to cross compared to five minutes for locals in the old days. Zaynabiddinov went to Kyrgyzstan himself recently "just to test whether or not they would let me through," and he was satisfied that authorities did not give him any problems. Customs officers also strictly enforce the amount of goods individuals carry back, whereas "the Andijon mafia of course coordinates large-scale shipments." There is also still lingering bitterness in Andijon over the alleged shooting deaths of five people who were smuggling goods across the border last September, which he says the government has no intention of investigating. Despite the location of the province on a busy border crossing with Kyrgyzstan, many Chinese goods permeating Uzbekistan are arriving in Andijon bazaars via other parts of the country since movement is restricted, according to Zaynabiddinov. Imprisoned Son Keeps Activist in Check -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Zaynabiddinov also reported that his imprisoned son was now being held in Qarshi Province, which is very difficult to reach and on the other side of the country from his home in Andijon. He expressed appreciation for sustained U.S. leadership on human rights and requested assistance in encouraging the authorities to at least transfer his son back to Tashkent where he was previously held. He did just return from visiting his son and commented that the authorities know his son's incarceration gives the government leverage in keeping his own human rights activities in check. He TASHKENT 00000249 002.2 OF 002 noted that his son twice had his original 10-year sentence reduced during amnesties (each time 25 percent of the remaining sentence was cut),yet he was not released outright like many other prisoners. Zaynabiddinov has not heard any rumors about a possible amnesty in conjunction with the upcoming Navruz spring holiday, and said last autumn's amnesty was "disappointing." Comment: -------------- ¶5. (C) Zaynabiddinov is a reliable contact who, despite strong personal reasons for disliking the government, provides balanced and credible insights. Interestingly, Andijon Province does not look like an area likely to witness social unrest. BUTCHER To view the entire SMART message, go to URL http://repository.state.sgov.gov/_layouts/OSS SearchResults.aspx?k=messageid:69649462-8069- 49b6-8ab1-f4e891c0ce76