Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan Rediscover Friendship of Peoples

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 000246

SIPDIS SIPDIS
AMEMBASSY HELSINKI PASS TO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PASS TO AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS PASS TO AMCONSUL THESSALONIKI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019-03-02
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG EPET TX UZ
SUBJECT: Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan Rediscover Friendship of Peoples

TASHKENT 00000246 001.2 OF 002



CLASSIFIED BY: Nicholas Berliner, Pol-Econ Chief; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) Summary: The Uzbeks pulled out all the stops for the
February 24-25 visit of Turkmen President Berdymuhamedov to
Tashkent, evidence that these two countries are rapidly developing
a "special relationship." In addition to cultural and historical
ties, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have common interests in
trans-boundary water issues and are key suppliers of natural gas to
Russia. The Uzbeks increasingly resent Russian behavior that pits
the Central Asian states against one another, particularly on the
issue of water. Closer relations with Ashgabat are one way for
Tashkent to counteract this dynamic. End Summary.



Brotherly Love in Tashkent

--------------


2. (C) A cavalcade of concerts, receptions, the opening of an
ornate new embassy, and a state dinner in which Karimov waxed
eloquent about the warm feelings between the two countries and
their leaders, suggested that a real bond is developing between
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. It was significant that Karimov used
his press conference with the Turkmen to publicly endorse Uzbek
participation in the Northern Distribution Network (NDN),and
perhaps over time the Uzbeks will try to nudge the Turkmen in the
direction of permitting "positive neutrality" to include rail
shipments of goods for our troops in Afghanistan. As Central Asian
countries appear to edge a bit closer to each other in recent weeks
in response to the distrust sown by Russia's mischief on water and
related issues, the Uzbek-Turkmen relationship seems to be growing
stronger and could eventually play an important regional role. A
slick exhibition of Turkmen commercial products and services, and
intensive media coverage, rounded out a truly extraordinary few
days of focus on the Uzbek-Turkmen relationship. Uzbekistan does
not have many, if any, friends in the world; this relationship may
be one of the few to fall into that category.



Common Interests

--------------


3. (C) Uzbek Foreign Minister Norov noted in a Feb. 27 meeting
with the Ambassador that Turkmen President Berdymuhamedov sees
common interests with Uzbekistan. He said that Russia wants
Central Asia divided to maximize its own influence, but that
Uzbekistan will take the lead in resisting these efforts. Turkmen
Ambassador Soltan Pirmukhamedov confirmed to the Ambassador Feb. 26
that the visit had deepened the bilateral relationship in
significant ways. The two sides share a common approach on the key
issue of water management in the region -- an approach that
endorses the Uzbek position that controversial hydro-electric
projects that could cede control of water to upstream countries
should not proceed without the agreement of all affected parties.
(The Uzbeks apparently own, and depend on, several pumping stations
in Turkmenistan that deliver water from the Amudarya River to
Uzbekistan, but the understanding on water issues extends to the
broader region as well, including Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.) The
Turkmen Ambassador said there was nothing new in his country's
position on shipment of goods to Afghanistan: Turkmenistan would
ship only "humanitarian" supplies, consistent with its policy of
"positive neutrality" (when the Ambassador asked between which
parties Turkmenistan considered itself to be neutral, Amb.
Pyrmukhamedov merely smiled and reiterated the policy). He said
natural gas had been discussed but nothing new was decided:
commitments to ship gas to China and Russia remained in place. He
described plans to create a "free trade zone" between the two
countries, but did not provide details (the chairman of
Uzbekistan's foreign relations committee told the Ambassador that
this might just amount to legalizing the active smuggling that goes
on over the border involving the sale of dirt cheap Turkmen
gasoline inside Uzbekistan, where prices are much higher). The
Turkmen said eight documents had been signed.



Comment

TASHKENT 00000246 002.2 OF 002



--------------


4. (C) The Turkmen-Uzbek relationship bears watching. From
Tashkent's perspective, relations with Turkmenistan are the least
fraught, as Ashgabat does not claim a regional leadership role,
seems unlikely to succumb to a "color revolution", and does not
threaten to take control over upstream water resources. As major
natural gas suppliers, closer relations could also enable both
governments to drive harder bargains with Moscow and temper the
latter's ability sow discord between the states of Central Asia.
BUTCHER

To view the entire SMART message, go to URL http://repository.state.sgov.gov/_layouts/OSS SearchResults.aspx?k=messageid:43afa37a-6a39- 4a1b-b383-eef580ffc391