UZBEKISTAN, OSCE, AND WATER: CONVERSATION WITH OSCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L TASHKENT 000244 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE SBU DELIBERATIVE PROCESS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN AMEMBASSY ASTANA PASS TO USOFFICE ALMATY AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PASS TO AMCONSUL HYDERABAD AMEMBASSY HELSINKI PASS TO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019-03-02 TAGS: ENRG ECON SENV PREL PGOV UZ SUBJECT: UZBEKISTAN, OSCE, AND WATER: CONVERSATION WITH OSCE AMBASSADOR SALBER REF: a) TASHKENT 146 CLASSIFIED BY: Robert McCutcheon, Econ Officer; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. In a meeting with the Ambassador, OSCE Conflict Center Director Herbert Salber said he saw a slight opening in Uzbekistan's willingness to accept third party assistance to solve increasing water tensions in Central Asia. Uzbek officials do not exhibit the same confidence when discussing water issues that they did in the past. On Uzbekistan's relations with the OSCE, Salber said he thought it unlikely Uzbekistan would suspend its membership. END SUMMARY UZBEKISTAN SOFTENS ITS POSITION ON REGIONAL WATER ISSUES? -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) On February 24 OSCE Ambassador Herbert Salber, Director of the OSCE's Conflict Prevention Center, completed a tour of Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan by paying a visit to Ambassador Norland. He told us that originally he had intended to travel only to Dushanbe and Ashgabat but had added Tashkent to his itinerary at the last minute at the request of OSCE headquarters in Vienna. The main purpose of his travel was to discuss water issues. After visiting the three capitals, Salber said there are signs the Central Asian leaders are ready to move beyond confrontation and search for a political solution. Significantly, Uzbekistan wants the OSCE to be involved in feasibility studies for hydroelectric projects in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. ¶3. (C) In Tashkent Salber met with DFM Karamatov and Head of the MFA Department for UN and International Organizations Zakirov. Salber gave us a copy of the MFA's non-paper on water issues. Unlike previous Uzbek non-papers, this one shows the Uzbeks are opening the door ever so slightly for third party involvement in regional water issues, although their clear preference is still to work with their neighbors bilaterally. The Government of Uzbekistan (GOU) in particular opposes unilateral third party interventions that would primarily benefit the third parties. (COMMENT: This appears to be a reference to recent Russian offers of assistance to Kyrgyzstan. END COMMENT) Salber said that in his view the GOU really does believe the water situation has deteriorated, and he added that his MFA interlocutors appeared more nervous, less certain than in past years when explaining the Uzbek position. Surprisingly, however, he added that when he visited the Scientific Information Center of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC),reservoir water level data presented by Professor Victor Dukhovny did not appear so alarming as to warrant this increased Uzbek concern. He suggested that perhaps the GOU as well as other regional leaders are worried that Russia has taken the tactic of playing countries in the region off of each other. ¶4. (C) Ambassador Norland asked whether it was realistic to think that Russia could control water supply in the region by building and operating hydroelectric plants, to which Salber said he thought it was not. He added that most Russian companies will be happy just to survive the next twelve months in this time of financial crisis and are not in a position to take on major new infrastructure investments in Central Asia. Ambassador Norland noted that the Uzbeks may be "forum shopping" and related that MFA Americas Desk chief Takhir Mamadjanov had phoned him on a holiday to ask for the U.S. reaction to a recent article on water issues published in the Pravda Vostoka newspaper. Clearly the GOU wants to know what position the U.S. and other countries will support. ¶5. (C) Salber said the OSCE is prepared to help on feasibility studies and assist in developing water management plans. He said the OSCE would not repeat past mistakes, however, such as in the 1990s when it prepared an unsolicited water management plan and presented it to Central Asian governments only to be ignored. This time, he said, the OSCE would wait for a direct request from Central Asian leaders. There is no shortage of expertise on water issues at the OSCE and in other international organizations, but ultimately it is a political call. Salber concluded that trying to intervene without being asked would be pointless. UZBEKISTAN AND THE OSCE -------------- ¶5. (C) On Uzbekistan-OSCE relations, Salber did not agree with earlier reports (reftel) that Uzbekistan might suspend its membership in the OSCE, but he added the GOU is not happy that Kazakhstan will chair the OSCE next year. The likely scenario for next year, in Salber's view, is that Uzbekistan will go through the year doing what it can to see that Kazakhstan's chairmanship is not a big success. Although it is possible Uzbekistan will try to spoil Kazakhstan's chairmanship, Salber said he did not think this likely. ¶6. (C) Finally, Salber briefly gave his views on Russia's continued push for an OSCE focus on the strategic political-military dimension at the expense of the human rights basket. Salber said that in the 1990s Western countries may have been "too aggressive" in their use of the OSCE to promote the human rights agenda. This backfired, and now the time may have come to adjust both the dialog and perceptions. 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