UZBEKISTAN: FM NOROV "CLARIFIES" TERMEZ OFFER

C O N F I D E N T I A L TASHKENT 001641 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/24 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM MARR UZ SUBJECT: UZBEKISTAN: FM NOROV "CLARIFIES" TERMEZ OFFER REF: TASHKENT 1639 CLASSIFIED BY: Robert McCutcheon, Econ Officer, State, Pol/Econ Office; REASON: 1.4(A),(B),(D) ¶1. (C) In a meeting with Ambassador Norland on another issue on December 24, FM Norov provided us with further information regarding the apparent Uzbek offer of troop transit to Afghanistan via Termez (reftel). The diplomatic note passed to the State Department on Dec. 21 described a trilateral Uzbek-U.S.-German agreement under which other ISAF personnel could also be included. In today's meeting, however, FM Norov told us that a bilateral Uzbek-German agreement is what is being proposed, not a trilateral agreement. Moreover, the Uzbek Embassy in Washington will be instructed to withdraw the note that it delivered on Dec. 21 pending further "refinements." ¶2. (C) FM Norov continued that the U.S. will be able "to join" the Uzbek-German agreement once it is finalized. The agreement, he said, is in fact a way of combining under one umbrella all existing Uzbek-German agreements on Termez. This would make it much easier to finalize and thereupon serve as a basis for U.S. involvement. However, he conceded, this would take time. COMMENT -------------- ¶3. (C) The Uzbeks appear to be backing away from their Dec. 21 offer before we have even commented on it. This probably has more to do with how President Karimov characterized the agreement in his Dec. 23 discussion with the new German Ambassador than with any change of heart regarding cooperation with the U.S. on Afghanistan. If Karimov referred to it as a "bilateral" agreement, then his officials are compelled to revise their approach accordingly. ¶4. (C) Norov characterized the Dec. 21-22 discussions with Russian FM Norov as "tough" and indicated Uzbekistan wants close cooperation with the U.S. on Afghanistan. But his latest signal suggests Termez, while it remains an option, would take some time to develop. NORLAND