Afghan Transboundary Water Training - Include the Neighbors

C O N F I D E N T I A L TASHKENT 001513 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/09/23 TAGS: ENRG EAID SENV ECON PREL UZ SUBJECT: Afghan Transboundary Water Training - Include the Neighbors from the Start? REF: KABUL 2933 CLASSIFIED BY: Richard B. Norland, Ambassador, State, EXEC; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) We were intrigued by reftel's proposal to initiate capacity building for Afghan officials to develop their ability to negotiate with neighbors, including Uzbekistan, on future trans-boundary water sharing arrangements. The cable quite rightly points out that this issue is a tough one for the neighborhood, and that proposed projects need regional coordination and consultation in advance if problems are to be avoided. Indeed, we would offer the suggestion that such coordination begin with the training process itself: to the extent appropriate and practicable, we might consider offering legal, scientific or technical training not just to Afghan officials, but simultaneously to officials from several or all of the affected Central Asian countries. ¶2. (C) Joint training would have salutary potential in two respects. First, even if other Central Asian countries chose not to participate (and some might well opt out - the Uzbeks, for example, are notoriously arrogant in thinking their skills are above those of all their neighbors),at least they could not accuse us of lack of transparency (whereas if word of Afghan training seeped out it might fuel paranoid notions that the U.S. was "up to something" on water in the region, enhancing Afghan capabilities to the detriment of others). Second, if officials from all the interested Central Asian countries including Afghanistan were to take part jointly in training activities, this might build regional teamwork and lay the foundation for cooperative approaches down the line, at least at the technical level until politics steps in. ¶3. (C) Water, we keep being reminded here, is a "life or death" issue. The Russians misplayed their hand early this year when President Medvedev told different audiences in the region different things, which eventually caught up with them and cast real doubt on Moscow's intentions and credibility. Likewise, the notion of charging downstream countries for water (reftel para 3) is explosive and could constitute a casus belli for some; at the very least it would be the end of Uzbek support for anything to do with Afghanistan. The proposal to launch training for the Afghans on water management negotiations is an opportunity to avoid mistakes by maximizing regional transparency and bringing as many of the interested parties together as possible early in the game. NORLAND