ESTONIA on AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TALLINN 000086 SIPDIS FOR EUR/NB-MIGUEL RODRIGUES E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS EAIF NATO PK AF EN SUBJECT: ESTONIA on AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN Classified By: CDA Karen Decker for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d). REF: (A) STATE 29482 (B) STATE 28929 (C) TALLINN 77 ¶1. (C) On March 31, POl/Econ Chief and DATT met with Christian-Marc Liflander, MOD Director for Policy Planning and MOD and Paul Teesalu, MFA Director for Security Policy to discuss the Government of Estonia response to the Afghanistan-Pakistan Strategic Review (Ref A) as well as possible deliverables for the upcoming NATO and EU Summits (Ref B). ¶2. (C) With regard to the Strategic Review, MFA/MOD provided the following feedback: -- Both MFA and MOD reacted positively to the regional approach used in the strategy, including treating Afghanistan and Pakistan as one theater for diplomatic activity. -- Liflander commented that while it is very clear the issue of Pakistan must be addressed, Washington has more leverage with Pakistan than NATO. Liflander also concurred with the need to engage moderate Taliban, but expressed his own concern about "unintended consequences" of this process, noting that how we go about this engagement would be just as important as the end result. -- Liflander expressed appreciation for the attention to a communications strategy. There is a need to focus on "hearts and minds" in NATO capitals, he said, because lack of progress in Afghanistan is going to make it increasingly difficult to sustain domestic support in the long-run. -- Teesalu noted positively the differentiated approaches in Pakistan (central control) and Afghanistan (more decentralized) as well as the focus on economic development in both countries. -- Both MFA and MOD emphasized the importance of coordination several times throughout the conversation. Teesalu reiterated MFA support for UNAMA creating an international database to track all international donor assistance in Afghanistan. It is hard for a country like Estonia, which has only one diplomat on the ground in Kabul, to figure out what is being done in any particular sector in Afghanistan, Teesalu said. Also, right now UNAMA does not have a clear picture of what development assistance Afghanistan is receiving. This is a priority for Estonia and the EU. -- MFA also specifically stressed the need for improved US-EU coordination. With respect to police training, Teesalu noted, the US and EU need better coordination to avoid overlapping assistance. On establishment of a Contact Group, MFA proposed that individual donor countries and an EU rep be included from the beginning. -- Also on coordination, MOD noted that there are so many players dealing on the security side in Afghanistan and new ones coming (possible NTM-A, French Gendarmerie and Italian Carabinieri) that effective coordination is even more essential. -- MFA suggested we consider ways to encourage contacts between local authorities in Pakistan and Afghanistan. ¶3. (C) MFA/MOD also provided feedback on our request for deliverables for the NATO and EU Summits: -- While in Washington last week, MOD U/S Riho Terras raised the possibility of Estonia sending a platoon to Afghanistan to support the August elections. However, MOD still needs to decide if its budget will support this additional operation. Although deployment in support of the elections would require Parliamentary approval (because it is outside Estonia's current legislative mandate for Afghanistan),Liflander said, this factor is not an obstacle. MOD has the paperwork ready to submit to the Parliament and a July timeframe is still realistic if there is money for the operation. Liflander's July timeline would also support recreating the now disbanded platoon that had been intended for Iraq. MOD emphasized that this deployment would be a "one-off", not TALLINN 00000086 002 OF 002 sustainable and that Estonia, like many allies, would need support to conduct such a deployment. -- Liflander emphasized the need to look down the road, rather than just short term. Among other factors in Estonia, local elections in October 09 will add stress to short-term political decisions on the budget. In the longer term, MOD is still considering contributing to an Embedded Training Team (ETT)(possibly leading to a Joint US-EST OMLT) and development of a Special Operations Forces (SOF) /HUMINT team for Afghanistan. -- Liflander stressed that Estonia is not "backing off" from Afghanistan. This remains the most important operation in which Estonia is involved. While the GOE is not reducing its contribution to Afghanistan, it may not be able to increase it. If the budget forces a change in Estonian op tempo, it won't be in Afghanistan, Liflander added. Estonia and all of Europe have hard decisions to make. -- MFA said that despite the budget situation, the MFA does not plan to decrease development assistance to Afghanistan. Estonia will continue to focus on the health sector (in Southern Afghanistan). It is also looking at education-sector projects in Kabul; sending Afghan diplomats to the Estonian School of Diplomacy in 2010; sending a parliamentary delegation to Kabul to explore way of enhancing the Afghan parliament's IT capabilities. (As reported in Ref C, Estonia has already provided $40,000 to Afghanistan for election support.) -- The MFA hosted a meeting last week with Ministers and NGOs to discuss Afghanistan. This is part of a larger goal of disseminating information on what the GOE is already doing in Afghanistan and assessing what additional capabilities Estonia may have to contribute (e.g. specialists from NGOs and ministries other than the MFA). DECKER