Estonia's Missing Russian Parties

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TALLINN 000383 SIPDIS AMEMBASSY ANKARA PASS TO AMCONSUL ADANA AMEMBASSY ASTANA PASS TO AMCONSUL ALMATY AMEMBASSY BERLIN PASS TO AMCONSUL DUSSELDORF AMEMBASSY BERLIN PASS TO AMCONSUL LEIPZIG AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PASS TO AMEMBASSY PODGORICA AMEMBASSY HELSINKI PASS TO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG AMEMBASSY ATHENS PASS TO AMCONSUL THESSALONIKI AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/17 TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI EN SUBJECT: Estonia's Missing Russian Parties CLASSIFIED BY: Marc Nordberg, Political/Economic Chief; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) Classified by DCM Karen Decker for Reasons 1.4 B & D. ¶1. (U) Summary: Even though one-third of Estonia's population is Russian-speaking, Estonia has no strong Russian political parties. The few ethnic Russian parties that have formed have remained on the margins of politics. Instead, largely because it is the only Estonian political party reaching out to Russian speakers, the opposition Center Party has attracted the most support from ethnic Russians. Center reaped the benefits of this support in the October 2009 local elections, when a greater number of ethnic Russians voted and overwhelmingly voted for the Center Party. As a little over half of Russian speakers in Estonia are not Estonian citizens, however, the Center Party will not be able to cash in on Russian votes in the 2011 parliamentary elections, where only Estonian citizens can vote. End summary. Voter Turn Out Up, but is it Just Revenge? ¶2. (U) Voter turnout in the October 2009 local elections was higher than in any election since Estonia regained its independence in ¶1991. Much of this increase came from the increased participation of Estonia's Russian speakers. Out of a total population of 1.4 million people, Estonia has 387,000 Russian speakers; 97,000 of whom are Russian citizens and hold Russian passports, and 108,000 are legal residents of Estonia, but have no citizenship at all (they are stateless). The remaining 182,000 Russian speakers have Estonian citizenship (either by their families living here between 1920-1940, or through naturalization since 1992). While non-citizen residents cannot vote in national elections, they can vote in local elections, and they did so this year in droves. In the Tallinn district of Lasnamae for instance, where approximately 113,000 residents are Russian speakers, voter turnout increased twenty percent compared to the local elections in 2005. Some analysts consider increased political activity by the Russian-speaking population to be positive, showing they are starting to become politically active. Others counter that Russian speakers only voted this year to take revenge against the ruling Reform Party for removing the "Bronze Soldier" Soviet WWII monument in April 2007. That event led to two days of rioting, and a deep distrust of the Reform Party among the local Russian community. No Strong Russian Parties ¶3. (C) Estonia does not have any influential ethnic Russian parties. For the last decade neither ethnic Russian parties nor Russian-speaking politicians have appealed to local Russians. In 1995 and 1999 Russian speakers managed to win seats in parliament with the Russian Unity Party and United People's Party. Support for these groups has since disappeared and neither party is active. The Russian Party of Estonia (RPE) was the only ethnic Russian party to run in October's local elections (although its chairman also headed an electoral bloc - see below). The party is not represented in Parliament and therefore receives no financial support from the state. They lack money for a strong election campaign and survive only from donations by a few active members and leaders, who refer to the party as their "hobby." There are 1,300 members on the RPE registration rolls, but the number of active members is much smaller. The party receives little support from local Russians, but also did little campaigning in this year's elections to attract support. RPE Chairman Stanislav Cherepanov told poloff that his party's candidates were doing nothing to campaign, as "the people already know us." He further claimed it is degrading for his candidates to go door-to-door or to try and talk with voters in public spaces. RPE's public support reflects this lack of serious effort: in 2005 local elections RPE received TALLINN 00000383 002 OF 004 0.1 percent of the votes and in 2009 only 0.2 percent. The only other party that could claim to be ethnic Russian, the United Left Party of Estonia (ULP),was formed by the 2008 merger of the Estonian Left Party (former Communist Party) and the Constitution Party (an ethnic Russian party). ULP also has extremely low popular support, and in the 2009 local elections was unable to field a list of candidates. ¶4. (C) In recent years the only possibility for Russian-speakers to enter politics was through joining ethnic Estonian parties. The Estonian nationalist Pro Patria and ResPublica Union (IRL) estimates that ten percent of its membership is ethnic Russian. However, IRL MP Margus Tsahkna told poloff that his party does no outreach to the Russian community, and IRL does not have a Russian-language web site (though it does have an English version). About 300 persons from the Russian-Baltic party joined the Reform Party in 2003, but the "Bronze Soldier" event in 2007 greatly hurt Reform's credibility among Russian speakers. For example, Reform MP Tatyana Muravyova received 1,224 votes in the 2005 local elections, whereas in 2009 she received only 230. Former MP Sergei Ivanov started his political career in the Russian-Baltic party, joined Reform 2003, and moved to the Social-Democrats in 2009 after a disagreement with Reform leadership. Ivanov said he is considered a "traitor" by ethnic Russians since he had belonged to Reform, and he fared very poorly in elections as a result. Only One Party Reaching Out to Russians ¶5. (U) Instead, Russians are flocking to the Center Party, Estonia's main opposition party. Center at first seems an unlikely choice to appeal to Russians. It was formed as the Popular Front of Estonia and its leader is Edgar Savisaar, who has been the mayor of Tallinn since 2001. Both the Popular Front and Savisaar played key roles in Estonia regaining independence, and have previously been unpopular among ethnic Russians. Moreover, its current national leadership is mostly ethnic Estonian (only five out of 28 Center MPs are ethnic Russian). However, since the early 1990s the Center Party has made serious efforts to appeal to Russian speakers. Currently, they are the only party to do so in any serious manner, and their voting results reflect this outreach. Vice-mayor of Tallinn Denis Borodich was first elected to the Tallinn City Council four years ago with only 168 votes. In the 2009 elections he received 6,640 votes; more votes than either former two-time PM and IRL leader Mart Laar or Foreign Minister Urmas Paet received. Borodich is not the only example, and the number of Russian speakers within the Center Party rank-and-file is increasing. The youth organization of the Center Party is 70-80 percent Russian-speaking. Over one-half of the Center Party faction of the Tallinn City Government formed in 2009 was Russian-speaking (Russian-speakers make up 44.5 percent of Tallinn's population -- or 178,404 people). More importantly, Center opposed the relocation of the Bronze Soldier in 2007, a fact which helped Savisaar become the most popular politician among local Russians. In 2005 Savisaar received 16,834 total votes, compared to over 39,000 in 2009. ¶6. (SBU) In the run-up to the local elections in October, the Center Party conducted an intensive election campaign among Russian speakers in Tallinn. Center advertised on Russian-language radio and TV and even commissioned a song in Russian with the refrain, "We are for the Centrists." Center volunteers and staff called potential voters to attract support. In return, Estonia's Russians repaid Center with massive support. No other party in Estonia paid anywhere near this level of attention to local Russians. The Reform Party hung a small number of banners in Lasnamae, while the other parties had no visible presence. Reform mayoral candidate Keit Pentus held some speaking events in Lasnamae, but was criticized within her own party for this outreach (and she does not speak Russian). After the elections IRL leader Mart Laar noted his TALLINN 00000383 003 OF 004 party needed to start working with the local Russian-speaking population. However, IRL MPs Mart Nutt and Margus Tsahkna recently dismissed outreach to Russians to poloff, saying their party is "comfortably Estonian." Even if the other parties did reach out to this third of the electorate, it may be too late as Center currently has the overwhelming support of Russian speakers. Center Demagogues and Populists ¶7. (C) Despite its appeal, Center is not universally loved among Russian speakers. Leaders of the Russian Old Believers community in Estonia told poloff that Center politicians are "populists" and "demagogues." In the October local election in Peisiaare, Center ran candidates against a local Old Believer list. Center's platform was to close local schools and divert the savings to transfer payments for pensioners. Although the local list won readily, Center is challenging the results in court, claiming the local candidates had not legally registered. Niina Baranina, Mayor of Peisiaare, told poloff however that no other political parties have shown any interest in the region. ¶8. (C) Stanislav Cherepanov, Chairman of the Russian Party of Estonia, complained to poloff that Center has sought to make certain it is the only alternative for Estonia's Russians. Center receives state funds for elections since it is represented in parliament, giving the party a huge fund-raising advantage. Further, since Center controls many municipal councils, it is able to exert pressure on local media to avoid positive coverage of other parties. Sergei Stepanov, editor of local Russian-language newspaper Narvskaya Gazeta, made this same allegation to poloff. In Narva, Cherepanov claimed Center paid local residents 100 EEK (USD 9.40) per vote, provided they use their cell phone camera to verify they voted for Center. He additionally claimed that Center created the independent list (see below) Spisok Klenskogo as a false opposition to draw support away from RPE. As evidence, Cherepanov recalled that Dmitri Klensky (one of four people charged -- but acquitted -- of organizing mass disturbances in Tallinn during the Bronze Soldier incident) is a former editor at a Center-owned newspaper. Regardless whether these allegations are true, Center does have close ties with Russia. Center leader Savisaar annually visits Moscow to show his local constituents he has good ties with Russia, and since 2004 Center has had a cooperation agreement with the United Russia party. Details of the agreement remain confidential. ¶9. (C) Others also accuse Center of being a populist party. IRL MP Mart Nutt claimed that Center promises Russians quite a bit, but delivers nothing (in one recent example, this fall Center made a spectacle out of providing firewood and potatoes to Tallinn's poor. Several press sources later reported that Center had only rented to potatoes and firewood, and was not really handing them out). Nutt added Center is receiving funds from Russia to prevent the rise of strong Russian parties in Estonia (which could be vehicles to help draw ethnic Russians into Estonian politics). Stepanov, editor of Narvskaya Gazeta, also stated that Center is supported by the Russian government, at least in Narva. He claimed the local Center apparatus receives money from Russia. Additionally, the Russian Consulate in Narva will issue Russian passports to people recommended by Center within a week, as opposed to a three month wait for normal applicants. Electoral Blocs Try to Oppose Center TALLINN 00000383 004 OF 004 ¶10. (U) Estonian Russian speakers who did not want to support Center instead turned to electoral blocs. In the 2009 local elections Russian-speakers formed several ethnic unions ("blocs"), to compete for seats in local governments. These blocs were especially active in Tallinn, where the population is almost half Russian-speaking, in Tartu, where Russian-speakers make up 16 percent of the population, and in north-eastern Estonia, where the percentage of Russian-speakers is over 95 percent. ¶11. (U) In Tallinn there were two such blocs, Spisok Klenskogo - Russkii Tsentr (List of Klensky - Russian Center) and Russian Left Union Our City. The first union comprised 59 names and was led by Dmitri Klensky. During the 2009 EU Parliament elections Klensky personally received over seven thousand votes. In the local elections though, he and his union were not that successful, receiving only 2,630 votes, or 1.2 percent of the total votes in Tallinn. ¶12. (C) The Russian Left Union Our City (RLUOC) ran 43 names and was led by Chairman of the Russian Party of Estonia Stanislav Cherepanov and co-chair of the United Left Party Sergei Jurgens. Both Cherepanov and Jurgens noted that they tried to talk Klensky into submitting a joint list, but Klensky refused. Cherepanov remarked that Klensky had few names on his list, but on the final day of registration many people from RLUOC defected to Klensky. Cherepanov believes the Center Party, acting under instructions from Moscow, set up Klensky as a false Russian opposition to undermine RLUOC. Cherepanov believes the Kremlin was not interested in having strong Russian-speaking political forces in Estonia, and that Savisaar was told to "take care" of the situation. ¶13. (U) In Narva three blocs were formed to challenge Center, but all received between four and eight percent of the vote, while the Center Party received 76.6 percent. Center therefore received 26 seats out of 31 in the Narva City government. In 2005 Center received only 59 percent of the vote in Narva. In KiviC5li, these three blocs managed to out perform Center, and received nine seats in the city government, to Center's eight. In Tartu, two blocs formed by Russian-speakers received 0.8 and 0.5 percent of the vote respectively. ¶14. (C) Comment: The 2009 local elections have shown the Center Party has become the clear representative of the Russian-speaking population in Estonia, leaving little room for any other ethnic Russian political force in Estonia. Unless the other Estonian parties (Reform, IRL, etc.) begin to target Russian speaking voters, Center's primacy is unlikely to be threatened (and there is no evidence that Reform or any other party will change its current laissez-faire approach to Estonia's Russian-speaking minority). This does not automatically give Center an edge over its Estonian rivals (one reason they may be content to leave the Russian speakers to the Center Party). Center is not supported by all Russian-speakers, and more importantly, many of their supporters - who lack Estonian citizenship - cannot vote in national elections. Center is unlikely to do well, therefore, in the March 2011 parliamentary elections. That said, Presidential elections in September 2011 could be a different story. Under the constitution, Estonia's parliament chooses the president. In the event parliament cannot decide on a candidate, as has happened in three of Estonia's four presidential elections, the president is chosen by an electoral college largely created by municipal governments. Since Center did so well in the 2009 local elections, thanks in part to their ethnic Russian support, Center's presidential candidate will be well situated in 2011. This means the Reform Party, IRL, and the Social Democrats, as the major Estonian political parties in Parliament, need to be careful about ignoring the need for a Russian-speaking political strategy too long. POLT